The most consistent scorers on the Rockets/in the NBA

How does .XX equate to consistency. Show us ur formula please.

 

They shoot, make = +1
They shoot, miss = -1

Its not rocket science!

 

The easiest way to describe it is by example. We'll do it for Player X in a 5 game season in which he plays in all 48 minutes, every game, just for simplicity's sake.

Game 1 - 21 pts
Game 2 - 15 pts
Game 3 - 27 pts
Game 4 - 33 pts
Game 5 - 19 pts

Player X averages 23ppg, and since he played all 48 minutes each time, 23 points per 48 minutes (PP48). Since players don't play all 48 minutes, you'd have to find PP48 for all games played during the season.

Now we find the standard deviation (SD), which is essentially shows how much disparity there is in a player's numbers on a night-to-night basis. This is found as follows: First, find the difference between each game's PP48 and the season's average PP48.

21 - 23 = -2
15 - 23 = -8
27 - 23 = 4
33 - 23 = 10
19 - 23 = -4

These numbers are then squared and added together.

4 + 64 + 16 + 100 + 16 = 200

Then divide by number of games (5)

200 / 5 = 40

Take the square root of your result.

Square root of 40 = 6.3246

The numbers the OP is showing is the coefficient of variation (CV), which makes comparisons between all players a bit more accurate. This is found by dividing SD by PP48, which in this case is

6.3246 / 23 = 0.275

Which makes Player X pretty darned consistent. Get it?

 

So... The fact that McGrady would play early minutes in a game only to leave due to injury does or doesn't factor into consistency? McGrady may put up 4pts in 8 minutes, then leave the game in pain. That hurts him?

Also have to consider McGrady started the season shooting like a mad man (not making, shooting), and was #1 in scoring before leaving a game early due to injury. Then he played half a season deferring to Yao who was the more efficient player. Then, Yao goes down, once again McGrady is the 1st option. That would surely have an impact on consistency right?

 

The only name that surprised me was Maggette, Stoudemire puts up at least twenty every game it seems, lebron's inconsistent in his assists and boards, and even fg% i believe, but he always gets his points somehow. Iverson surprises me a little I guess because he seems to have some bad games every now and then.

thanks for the post, good topic

 

cleverly disguised "lets sign maggette since he opted out" thread.



but maggette definitely gets his points by driving to the basket. doesnt surprise me that he's up there. doesn't put up huge #s but he'll get his 18-22 a night.

 

he is the coeffecient of an anomoly!

 

These numbers are meaningless without knowing the formula as to what we are looking at. I'm sticking with Hollingers PER for now.

 

Good blog!

I just subscribed.

 

I agree this is a very interseting observation. My assumption would be that you would see more players on bad teams at the top of the list, as they would be more concerned with getting their shots off than the outcome of the game. Only Magette and Wade could really fall under than category.

the fact that McGrady is low on the list really isn't very surprising, he is streaky and isn't a player whose value is best measured in pts or fg%.

you wouldn't happen to have a similar breakdown of the consistency of free throw attempts would you?

 

The thing I find most interesting is that Melo and Iverson are both up there, but yet as a whole I wouldn't say the Denver Nuggets are a efficient basketball team.

Maybe that's their teammates and the style of play, but it feels like they both take a lot of shots to get their points.

 

this isn't measuring efficiency, they are consistently ineffecient

 

I'm curious how this consistency metric correlates to number of scoring attempts for a player per game (which could be estimated as FGA + .44*FTA). Naturally, the more attempts a player has per game, the more likely they are to hit their points scored per minute average. This metric will therefore naturally favor players who play big minutes and players who happen to have a large scoring responsibility on their team.

Also, what is the practical application of a stat like this? Is it essentially the same as predictability? I'm not sure. For instance, if you have a player who is scores consistently at one rate in home games, and at another rate in road games, his overall consistency metric might look really poor. But that doesn't mean his performance isn't predictable.

 

The Tracy McGrady & Wandy Rodriguez measure?

 

A somewhat philosophical interpretation could be that the guy's scoring is consistently inconsistent.

 

Thank you. I was correlating the consistency with efficiency. But I guess if you are always inefficient that's a form of consistency also.

Maybe a correlation between the two would be a better measure to analyze.