http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/2008/06/two_weeks_into_1.html June 16, 2008 Two weeks into hurricane season: What does it mean? As we're now a couple of weeks into hurricane season I wanted to update where we are. Aside from the short-lived Tropical Storm Arthur, which probably would not have been named a decade ago, the season has been quiet. I think there have only been one or two invests at this point, or areas of disturbed weather that the hurricane center have thought to be worth further investigation. The tropics, presently, are calm, and none of the models suggest development during the next week or so. This is normal for June. So, can we yet tell anything about what lies ahead? Maybe. Maybe not. One of the most important factors for storms is sea surface temperatures. When they reach 80 F (27 C), areas of low pressure have a much better chance to develop into tropical storms. If the water is warmer still the storms have a chance to become hurricanes. So what's the water like out there? Here are the water temperatures for the Gulf of Mexico, as of Saturday: And here are the water temperatures for the same day, one year ago: The good news is that temperatures are slightly cooler than last year, generally, across the Gulf of Mexico. The same trend holds true across most of the Atlantic basin. (See June 14, 2008 temps, and June 14, 2007 temps.) So the water, presently, is moderately cooler. It's forecast to remain so by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, which makes long-term sea surface temperature forecasts for around the world. Here's their July-August-September map for the Atlantic hurricane basin: ECMWF What to say of all this? This summer's Atlantic sea surface temperatures are unlikely to be significantly higher than normal, which bodes well for a near-normal hurricane season. Sea temperatures, alas, are but one of many, many variables. One other note. It now appears significantly more likely than not that we're heading out of La Niña toward neutral ENSO conditions. According to the official prediction, neutral conditions are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer months. This is significant because La Niña generally reduces wind shear over the Atlantic hurricane basin. So if you're looking for hopeful signs about the 2008 hurricane season, there are two. With that being said, as we're only two weeks into a six-month season, we still don't know much at all.
While I don't want hurricanes, here in Austin we could really use a tropical low pressure system to come from the Gulf. DD
I feel that these stats dont mean anything. If they did, the weatherman would be at least 50% correct. Back to you Max..
Thanks, Mo. And on the lighter side of the news...a koala bear has mated with a bottle-nosed dolphin. Now scientists aren't exactly sure what to call the new little critter, but rest assured they're excited to get their first glimpse. Good night friends and neighbors.
No s***. My yard is dying a painful death. When it's still in the 90's at night, the water is just disappearing before it hits the ground. I swear my yard was dry just after watering it the other day. Looks like it's going to stay in the 100's for at least the rest of the week. There is a chance of rain tomorrow and Wed., but it won't be enough to do anything.
hahaha. That should have gotten a few chuckles out of some of you guys! I'd give (almost) anything for some rain... I'm sick of constantly bringing my plants back from the verge of death (drought). Even my drought resistant plants aren't faring well! WTF!!!
I am no weather expert but here is a little heads up - this model has a Cat 3 or 4 coming right at houston. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdl...st94l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation Other possible paths - http://www.ih2000.net/ira/bmt-wth.htm
There's already a new GFDL model that moved landfall all the way to extreme notheren Mexico south of Brownsville. The other models show a south Texas landfall. Of course all this is very early, this is not even a named strom yet.
