JAG asked an interesting question about how badly our guards get whooped by other teams, so I did a little checking. Ok, I did a lot of checking. Out of the Rockets 51 games, there have only been 26 where both the Rockets backcourt was at full strength and the opponents backcourt was at full strenghth. Most of those missing games were due to Francis being out. Only 3 times were the Rockets healthy in the backcourt when another team was missing a key backcourt player. Anyway, in checking, I stuck with times when the players for both squads were healthy. Here's what I found. In 26 games: Record: 13-13 Rockets b/c PPG Avg: 43 Rockets b/c PPG Avg (season total): 44 Opp b/c PPG Avg: 32 Opp b/c PPG Avg (season total): 30 Times the Rockets Backcourt oustcored the opposition b/c: 19 Record when outscoring b/c: 11-8 The following are records based on the Rockets or opposition scoring either above, below or right on their average PPG. "Right on" is defined at equal to or within 4 points of their season average. Rockets b/c Above Avg: 5-5 Rockets b/c Below Avg: 4-5 Rockets b/c On Avg: 4-3 Opp b/c Above Avg: 5-6 Opp b/c Below Avg: 4-3 Opp b/c On Avg: 4-4 I'll let you guys soak that in. I'll be back later with my personal opinion on the matter.
I don't know how conclusive all of that is. Mobley is 3rd in the league in minutes played and if Steve qualified he'd be 6th. Your stats don't account for shooting % where Mobley is pretty horrid plus it doesn't account for things like Mobley scoring 8 points in the last minute of yesterdays game when it was already over. Our guards should outscore every other team's guards because both of our top scorers are in the backcourt. In fact in order for us to be an elite team right now our guards need to crush the other team's backcourt. I would wonder how many other team's #1 and #2 scorers are both in the backcourt. edit: I just did a little checking and the only other team in the NBA where the point guard and scoring guard are #1 and #2 in scoring is Charlotte and that would not be the case there if Jamal Mashburn were healthy.
You should run the numbers factoring in assists into the point totals since we have a scoring PG. Well, it looks like we would be a playoff team if we kept a healthy backcourt. 11-8 would be a 52.4% win percentage (vs. 54.9% for last year) which would place us as the 7th seed in this year's weaker western conference. That ain't terrible... and we can assume that the inconsistencies have also taken their toll, which would mean we could easily expect a slightly higher win percentage if there was some continuity to the season. It also says that the offensive or defensive performance of the backcourt, when they are healthy, doesn't make or break the team. If they are in there, there is little correlation between their stats and the win percentage. I wonder how the team assists numbers vs. opponents team assists effects the win percentage.
<B>Well, it looks like we would be a playoff team if we kept a healthy backcourt. 11-8 would be a 52.4% win percentage (vs. 54.9% for last year) which would place us as the 7th seed in this year's weaker western conference. </B> Except 11-8 is not our record with a healthy backcourt. 13-13 is, which is borderline playoffs. 11-8 is our record when outscoring the other team's guards. Jeff, So basically, this looks like it all is a bunch of nothing. Our team doesn't perform much differently when the backcourt scores a lot or a little. The stat I would be curious about is who's really burning us, position-by-position (not asking you to do that, of course!) For example, our SGs are scoring x ppg, opponent's SGs are scoring y ppgs. That stat for each position. It just seems that we get torched for high points by guards a hell of a lot more than we get burned by Centers or PFs (given the preseason expected defensive weakness of our frontcourt, you'd think the opposite).
Whoops, I didn't see that. But we definetly know that, if there is a stat out there that can be correlated to our win percentage, it isn't the backcourt scoring.
Jeff...thanks for the wrok, buddy... I think this puts to rest any thought that our guards' defense is COSTING us most of our games, the theory that they score/give up the same obviously not being realisitc. However, krosfya went about it an intersting way, and another way to guage whether or not our guards are that poor defensively would be to look at the numbers opposing guards put up, scoring and %, vs. their normal production...In a limited sample, he found a 2 pt per game difference, which is pretty significant, I think. However, I would be interested, should you have the time/inclination, to see a more complete comparison before drawing any conclusions...
Actually Mobley's shooting percentage isn't that much lower then Francis, yet both find ways to score. Saying Mobley score 8 points in games when they're over is silly because even when Houston was losing 15 in a row they were in most of those games.
There are three kinds of lies: Lies Damn Lies and Statistics Actually I love stats but they don't always tell the whole story. You do a good job of showing how productive our back court is but every team in the league does not call on its back court players to be the primary scoring options like our team does. LAL has Shaq and Kope as its primary scoring options. Dallas has Dirk and Nash (Now that Finely is healthy this could be a good comparison). Indiana has Rose and O'Neal. Sac has Peja and Webber. Those teams and many others ask there guards to get the ball in the best possible possition for the team to score points with out making mistakes and with out asking them to be the primary scoring option. When showing how productive our guards are I think assists and turnovers should also be considered. Something that can not be shown with stats is how many offensive plays did not end in turn overs but was still basically wasted on a bad last second shot due to poor decissions during the 24 seconds of our offensive possession. Unfortunately our guards give up a ton of turnovers and seem to make countless number of bad decissions that lead to bad shots. Looking back to the begining of the season it looked like Francis and Cat were making good decissions and protecting the ball. The Rockets seemed to be playing good defense and looked to be getting a lot of good shots but the shots were just not falling. I really think the poor decission making and glut of turnovers can be greatly attributed to injuries and a serious lack of continuity. I really believe had this team been able to avoid the injury bug starting with MoT and Francis had not spent the majority of the season sitting on the bench we would be talking about possible first round match ups in the play offs instead of our guard production. I think we have one of the most dynamic back courts in the game today and when this team finally gets healthy we will become annuall play off perticapants and our back court will be seen as the best in the game. IMO.
There is truth to that. But one thing worse is a theory w/out support. Folks make lots of claims here but too often there is nothing to back it up. For example, Timing keeps saying that Mobley's shot % is "horrid" which is false. He's shooting 43% which is about average for a SG. Plus his 3pt% is also 43% which is quite good.
False huh? 43%, actually 42.8%, is so good that if Mobley were a team he'd be tied for 25th out of 29 teams. I dunno what you call 25th out of 29 but I'd call that horrid. Looking up all of the starting shooting guards in the league Cat ranks 21st out of 28. I couldn't figure out who's starting for Utah so just make it 21 out of 29. That's the bottom third of all the starting two guards in the whole league. And he's our 2nd leading scorer. Look who's below Cat. Two rookies, Fred Hoiberg, Allen Iverson, Jerry Stackhouse, Penny, and Vince. Incidentally Vince is a career 45% shooter and Penny is a career 46% shooter so their current stats might be an anomaly however Cat's a career 43% shooter so this is about his norm. Wally Szczerbiak - 51.3% Wesley Person - 50.6% Brent Barry - 50.9% Lee Nailon - 49.2% Calbert Cheaney - 48.1% Kobe Bryant - 47.7% Bonzi Wells - 47.5% Kerry Kittles - 46.8% Ray Allen - 46.6% Reggie Miller - 46.4% Doug Christie - 45.5% Allan Houston - 45.2% Eric Piatkowski - 45.2% Richard Hamilton - 44.8% Tracy McGrady - 44.8% Michael Finley - 44.7% Jason Terry - 43.7% Eddie Jones - 43.1% Paul Pierce - 42.9% Charles Smith - 42.9% Cuttino Mobley - 42.8% Vince Carter - 42.7% Penny Hardaway - 42.3% Jerry Stackhouse - 41.8% Shane Battier - 41.2% Jason Richardson - 40.7% Fred Hoiberg - 40% Allen Iverson - 39.5% There is my SUPPORT.
Please, spare us the Calbert Cheaney's of that list. The fact that Mobley was shooting around 38% when he was playing injured means nothing? The fact that for a while, he was the number one and only defensive assignment, just llike Kobe and Vince or whoever. You're forgetting how dramatically his 3-pt shooting has improved? Eric Piatowski....Pfffft....I'd love to see him try to get 42% shooting with the same attention Cat gets. But don't worry your pretty little heads. Soon we'll have ourselves an excellent inside game to go with our backcourt. I'm sensing a Cato/Griffin/Taylor combination is MORE than adequate. We need a SF, even if it's a healthy Glen Rice, which I don't rule out.
I think a more realistic approach is to look at the PPG opposing backcourts score against the Rockets versus their average for the season.
great insight clutch... a major factor influencing these numbers too is the fact that we have no consistency in other positions on the court. missing a starting 3 and 4 plays into these numbers IMHO. How would the numbers look with Rice actually starting and pumping in 12/ppg....Mo Taylor pumping in 15/ppg and having Griffin and Thomas off the bench. I wonder what kind of effect that would have on the b/c numbers and records..
Okay, I ran an analysis of Cat's production with Steve in the lineup vs. w/out. I think you'll clearly see a correlation. Cat is shooting well over 45% when Steve is in the lineup. So there goes your theory that Cat is costing us games because he is incapable to shooting a good percentage. IMO, this proves that when Steve isn't there, defenses collapse on Cat and decrease the number of good looks he gets. I think others agree. Once again, Cat's shooting percentage is NOT the reason why the Rockets are losing. This table illustrates Cat's production in games where Steve played this season. At the bottom shows the total percentage: <pre> OPP MIN FGA FGM 3ptA 3ptM ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ATL 47 8 14 3 4 LAC 51 8 24 2 4 MIN 39 9 14 4 4 PHO 43 9 16 6 7 DEN 47 7 18 0 6 PHI 39 5 13 1 4 DEN 23 1 5 0 2 LAL 53 10 26 0 5 DAL 35 7 9 2 2 SAC 33 4 9 2 4 POR 44 4 11 0 2 LAC 41 4 12 0 5 DAL 35 7 9 2 2 SAC 33 4 9 2 4 POR 44 4 11 0 2 LAC 41 4 12 0 5 DET 37 5 18 3 7 IND 40 5 13 1 5 NY 46 5 14 0 4 UTH 42 7 18 4 7 DEN 43 5 14 2 4 PHI 44 8 15 4 5 TOR 44 8 16 3 5 BOS 41 8 20 5 8 ATL 40 9 17 1 6 DAL 42 13 19 3 5 NJ 46 13 24 3 4 CHA 47 8 19 2 5 GSW 50 5 15 1 4 DAL 45 7 19 1 6 UTH 46 11 16 3 5 CLE 44 12 21 1 2 ORL 45 11 25 3 4 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL 235 515 64 148 45.63% 43.24% </pre> This table shows Ca'ts production w/out Steve: <pre> OPP MIN FGA FGM 3ptA 3ptM SEA 38 8 17 3 4 LAL 53 10 26 0 5 SEA 38 8 17 3 4 NY 34 4 12 0 2 CHI 23 2 7 1 2 WAS 43 10 22 1 3 MIN 39 8 19 2 4 DET 34 7 15 2 3 CLE 48 11 26 3 5 IND 45 5 16 2 5 MIA 44 7 18 0 2 POR 41 9 28 1 6 LAL 34 7 15 1 3 MIL 48 11 23 7 13 PHO 45 13 13 3 9 GSW 46 11 22 2 3 LAL 41 2 17 2 6 NJ 45 6 18 1 6 CHA 48 9 21 5 8 MEM 44 10 29 1 5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL 158 381 40 98 41.47% 40.82% </pre>
My THEORY was that Cat is shooting a very poor % which you said was false. You said he was about average. I just showed he ranked 21st out of 29 starting shooting guards for the season. We don't just count the games where Steve played and he played last season and the season before that. Mobley has never shot above 43% from the field in any season regardless of who was playing and who wasn't, regardless of the offense, and regardless of where his shots were coming from. The Rockets are currently 22nd in the league in shooting %. If you're 22nd in anything then that's losing you games. In addition, I can go up and down that list of shooters and find prominent teammates that have been injured thus increasing the defensive attention on those shooters.
How many will you find where the backcourt mate is a Steve Francis calibre player, and has missed 20+ games due to injury? Where will you find a team that lost both its starting forwards for the season? The fact that Cat plays lots of minutes, means nothing. You can argue that he takes more shots, but I can argue that he;s mroe tired, thus his FG% goes down. About his past record, who's to say that this wasn't the seaosn where he's begin shooting 45% if we were the slightest bit healthy?
Sane you can argue whatever you want but here are the stats over his career. His shooting% has been virtually the same regardless of minutes and teammates. 98-99 29.7 minutes/game 42% FG shooting 2.5 assists/game 99-00 30.8 minutes/game 43% FG shooting 2.6 assists/game 00-01 38 minutes/game 43% FG shooting 2.5 assists/game 01-02 42.3 minutes/game 43% FG shooting 2.8 assists/game
We've got a good dual thread going here. I'll stick to this one although it appears you are denying the facts as valid. I'm not sure how you can justify dismissing such a seemingly obvious coorrelation. Your point is that it shouldn't matter who is present on the court. At the end of the day, there is no excuse for a poor shooting percentage. I have to disagree. You miss more shots when there is a hand in your face. Period. Steve's presence free's up Cat (and visa versa). Cat averaged your beloved 45% over 30 games this season when Steve played. I can't dismiss that as a fluke. If you can then so be it. I think many people will find that this is a compelling statistic. But let me add that you say we would win more games if Cat shot 45%. Well, when Steve was in the game, we have in fact won more games (over 500). But this must be a fluke too. Afterall, it shouldn't matter that your star player is out. That is no excuse for a loss.
I'm not denying that he shot better with Francis on the floor however your data is inconclusive for a lot of reasons. Cat is a streaky player so how are we to know it was as a result of Steve being on the floor or because Cat was in a groove? If I recall correctly the first 9/10 games of the season with Francis on the floor Cat was shooting barely over 40%. In addition, Cat has played with some injuries that happened to coincide with Francis missing games which certainly could have affected his shooting %. So I find your limited data to be not representative of what Cat has done in his career here. I've just posted his shooting % over the course of his career which I feel is much more conclusive than a stretch of 20 or so games this season alone. The data shows that Cat's shooting % has changed very little over the course of his career here in different offenses, with different roles, and with different players.
