I made my argument before about the value of the Mobley ISO is often missed on this BBS as our most effective play, backed by percentages. Sure, LA and SA have now shown up with a zone defense to make it tougher. But with Cato and Rogers back for their excellent ability to be targets out of double teams and with Cuttino showing up with a pull-up jumper in the lane, the Mobley ISO play again is showing its power. But, don't take my word for it, read this game summary from the Chronicle's Jonathan Feigan: http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/story.hts/sports/bk/bkn/482746 Guys, you may not like Cuttino's style, or this Barkley's-esque ISO. But this is part of being a Rocket fan, and it is part of Rudy's offense. So, I just ask that if you bash the ISO, at least note its effectiveness when not defensed properly (don't only look for the negatives). To see the effectiveness, watch Cato and Rogers on the play, not just Mobley. A fan wish to Rudy: Cuttino is the only player on the team that should be running this. Francis should not run this because he is a pg that needs to run plays to get more motion on the team. Thomas should certainly not be running it as he did in the Laker game. Cuttino should run this every game to see how the opponents guard it. If they zone it well like LA and SA, scrap it for that game. If not, I say use it to get Cato and Rogers garbage points. [This message has been edited by heypartner (edited March 05, 2000).]
I wouldn't say it was LA zoning that was the problem. If we had Cato instead of Miller down underneath the basket, it was be a dunk not a blocked shot. ------------------ The Mall Kid is Back! The best draft source yet, www.draftsource.net
LA's zone was VERY impressive. Yeah...Miller and Bullard are not good targets for garbage points. Thx for bringing that up. Another fan wish to Rudy: the Cuttino ISO play should never be run unless Cato or Rogers are in the game, preferrably both. A note to Cuttino: do not always settle for a simple swing pass out of the double. Dribble right at the crease sometimes and jump to throw the swing pass. This will prevent the fake or soft double that was critical to the LA and SA zones. Against the zones, I also think the ISO should flex into a strong side play for Francis or Thomas starting with fake penetration by Mobley to draw the double, and the other player coming from weak side to join Mobley. The ISO should definitely flex sometimes. [This message has been edited by heypartner (edited March 05, 2000).]
heypartner- the moment I saw that article I thought of you. Glad you found it. I don't know what a "flex" is. Could you elaborate more for me?
Ok. I guess its time to make my rebuttal as to why Mobley's iso play is not as effective as heypartner claims. Keeping it simple: Since you and Rudy like to claim percentages. Ill say this. Given the opportunity for Mobley's iso to be run every play. (I know this would never happen) but for argument sake. Mobley shoots .415 hits .345 of his 3's and garnishes 2.5 assists per game. Now for a play thats so affective, Mobley isn't putting the ball in the hole very well. Isn't stepping back and hitting the 3 all that well. And isn't getting alot of his team mates involved in averaging 1 assist every 12 minutes on the floor. So, in research. In games where Mobley is getting the bulk of the points. I took every game where Mobley scored over 18 points. The Rox are 8 and 14. For a .363 winning percentage. In games where Mobley score less than 18 the Rox are 16-21 for a .432 winning percentage. Now before Pole jumps me. Im not saying that Mobley sucks. Now if Mobley was hitting about 45 percent. Or dishing at least 4 assists maybe Id understand the thought that this play was effective. Point is, Mobley just isn't hitting the shots, or getting his team involved. Plus watching the iso for all these games, it kills the chance of any second shot from rebounds when everyone is standing around the 3 point line.
Well maybe when he doesn't score as much is becuase they are doubling him, getting open shots, and winning. And maybe thats why when Mobley doesn't get doubled, teammates don't get invloved, and they lose. Ever think like that? The Mobley ISO is very effective...as long as they double on him. Unfortunely Cato or Rogers have to be in the recieving end. When Bullard and Miller our on the other side, it usually results in a block. I bet they deflated the stats a little with Cato and Rogers being injured and all. All Mobley's shooting stats, passing stats means nothing. If you want to argue about the effectiveness of the Mobley ISO, just answer the simple question, "What is the effiency rate of the Mobley ISO?" I guarantee you its up in the 70s%. No wonder Rudy keeps running it. ------------------ The Mall Kid is Back! The best draft source yet, www.draftsource.net
also remember the phrase "pass off of a pass"? Oftentimes the first pass doesn't get an assist... but the fact that it pulled a long defender off of the block (wing to wing to reentry) sure as hell had something to do w/ the points. as Francis improves, you'll find that his stats are missing quite a few of assists b/c of this same reason... drive + dish, dish, score.
RF34...I know you really don't believe the Mobley iso runs at a 70 percent effective clip. Because any team that could run a play that was 70 percent effective, they would have a title wrapped up, and would be damned near unbeaten. Achebe...I don't know, Ive watched the Mobley iso all year. And Ill ask you this. How many times do you see two passes stem from it? Very, very rarely. About 70 percent of the time the Mobley iso leads to either a drive to the hoop, or a jump shot from Mobley. Id say at least the other 25 percent leads to a single pass to a baseline player or a kickout to the 3, for a quick jump shot.
Dreamshake- Like HP I am also a fan of Mobley. I'd like to make a couple of points: 1. We have to use whatever works. On this team there are only 2 legitimate players who can creat their own shots (Mobley & Francis). Yeah once a month Anderson or Cato has a big game, but on a night in and night out basis they are our two sources of offense. 2. I remember early this year when Mobley was shooting 37-38% and people were complaining (and probably rightfully so). Now Mobley is hitting at 42%, as is Francis. This tells me that Mobley has been shooting much better lately. Obviously Francis runs the offensive more effectively (more assists), but I like the ball in Mobleys hands as much as in Stevies.
All right Dreamshake, I won't "jump" you, but I have to offer a rebuttal. If for anything else, I'm going to do it in the hopes that you will never quote another player's shooting percentage. It's a very ineffective stat for judging ones shooting ability. A much better stat would be free throw shooting. There, all else is equal--players are compared on their ability to shoot from a set position without any defensive interference. But even that stat is not infallible. Our own Bryce Drew is the perfect example: of active players, he owns the best Free throw percentage, and the worst Field goal percentage. Apparently, he can't shoot with a hand in his face. Field goal percentage is a bad stat to use because it misses some key points--like, how many three pointers a player makes, and how many times a player gets fouled. A 35% shooter who only shoots three pointers is a better shooter than a 50% shooter who only shoots two pointers. For every 100 attempts, the three point shooter will score 105 points while the two point shooter will only score 100 points. A player who has a lower FG percentage because he is getting fouled is even more important--especially if he making his free throws. It's hard to quantify just how important it is to put the other team in foul trouble, but I don't think you will dispute it's importance. My suggestion is not just look at the published stats, but try to assimilate some importance out of what you see. I'll give you an example. It's unscientific, but it's immensely more relevant than just comparing FG percentages. It does not take into effect however, the importance of getting the other team in foul trouble--which by the way, Mobley goes to the line more than any other player on our team. For this example, I only looked at players who have played in at least 70% of our games, and I looked at stats as of 3/5/2000. I simply took their total attempts and divided that into their total points. This will show the relevance of both three point shooting and getting to the foul line and making your shots there. As I said, it DOES NOT show the relevance of putting the other team in foul trouble. There are 8 players who have played in 70% of our games, and their numbers are: Player - points per attempt Francis - 1.1840 Mobley - 1.2337 Anderson - 1.2042 Williams - 1.1130 Cato - 1.3947 Thomas - 1.1708 Drew - 1.0294 Bullard - 1.0320 As you can see by the numbers, there is only one player who scores more per attempt than Mobley, and that is Cato, and he does this easily based simply on the nature of his position. He scores near the basket where it's a) easier to score if no one fouls you, and b) easier to get fouled (and still make your shot). As a side note, Mobley is third on the team in minutes, and third on the team in steals. Stat-wise, his defense is nowhere near as bad as some have made it out to be. And just watching him play, I don't think it's bad either. Of course, it's just as hard for me to be objective as it is for the rest of you guys. You either like Mobley, or you don't. Mobley's play is not always pretty, and he does make some boneheaded moves, but he's our best option right now. If you dog him, you're really dogging the whole team because the rest of the team plays no better. [This message has been edited by Pole (edited March 06, 2000).]
you guys realize that this will all be moot when Kenny plays the charmin game, stuffs 30 rolls of tissue paper into the back of his pants, squats + shoves back, squats + shoves back, drop steps for the two or pivots out front for the pump fake and shot. until then, let's just get the wins that we can.
Nolen, Yeah, I was thinking people were going to think I was Feigan's brother or something, reciting his comments early before he completes his due diligence and goes to press. Flex-ing is a motion offense system used a lot in college. I use the term somewhat more liberally that the strict, capital "F" definition. Flex is a means to use "reaction picks" to play motion offenses where if your first option is stopped, you can seamingless start another option. The Barkley ISO and the Mobley ISO have no flex to them. You drive and create, or swing it around to the open man before the defense shifts. A flex will re-establish a complete new set...ie low-post play, pick-n-roll. The trouble with this obviously is the 24-second clock; colleges have a much easier time playing motion. But note, the motion philosophy is the concept behind Tex Winter's Triple Post. Only the smart and unselfish NBA teams can accomplish motion in a 24-sec clock world. Flexing out of Mobley's ISO would be a tremendous step to full motion, and it would be something Rudy has *never* done before with his ISO sets. Dreamshake Do not use box score stats to measure play efficiency? You are, at best, measuring player efficiency. To coaches, and to me, I could care less about player stats. It is the success of individual half-court plays that matter, not individual performance. DS: I accept many of your comments about Mobley. I'm not a Mobley apologist. But, I just want people to see the whole play (especially the weak-side part of it). I am not fully satisfied with the ISO, yet. I think we can exploit that double even more. Much is dependent on Rudy tweeking it, and Mobley listening/seeing. What is best about the play is it is a good way to slow things down and get good looks when Francis is not in the game, or is being over-defensed by the opps. Feigan continues to give Mobley credit. Here's another one from today: <a href="http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/story.hts/sports/bk/bkn/483088">Mobley's value as sub benefits Rockets but irks, motivates him</a> RF34 was exaggerating on the 70%. But every game I counted, the effeciency was over 50% with some 70%. I counted a huge 12-18 once. I did stop counting when Cato and Rogers were out. But have renewed it recently. I'm willing to bet with games where Cato and Rogers were not on the IR, the Mobley ISO for the season is around 55%. Last year, I recall Rudy saying Barkley's ISO was near that, and was the #1 efficiency play.
I would agree that the statistics don't tell you a whole lot about what we're dealing with here... 1) Mobley is learning the isolation. It's his play. Don't forget Hakeem had his play too. Hakeem's fade was horrible when he first started. He learned how to hit at least 50% after taking that shot over and over again. It's simlar to an isolation because it was Hakeem going one on one. I would venture a guess that he was below 40% on the fadeway when he started his career. Mobley is learning a "move" and there is no reason to inhibit his progess based on a low shooting percentage. 2) A play's success is less important than the perception that it succeeds. This sounds stupid, but I believe it to be true. If the perception around the league is that it works, then you have situations like in Laker game (number one) where Shaq Doubles and leaves Cato Open on the baseline. Bam. Two points. And that's because Shaq thought the best way to defend that play was to double it. Maybe he was right, maybe he was worng. It didn't matter. He thought Mobes would score going one on one so he doubled. And all you want is the defense to react. Then it's up to Mobes to make the right play ...The other part of this is the perception that our team has for the play. I agree, if the team does not have confidence in this play, then it won't work even if Mobes has the talent to pull it off. Everyone on the court must be thinking it will succeed. If they don't, then bag it. But it doesn't neccessarily have ot work, they just need to think that it does. It's all about keeping the team positive. Bottom Line....I say we let him run the isolation. Better to have a play than to not have one ie Sean Kemp.
Slamma Jamma, Another way to say the same thing is to use a Mike Ditka quote regarding the Refrigerator as fullback. Mobley is certainly on locker room bulletin boards. See Feigan's Monday article.
