The Rockets are actually pretty close. The Western conference was in no way in cruise control this season. The compressed playoff standings meant that teams were battling to even stay in the playoffs, much less get home court. The Suns and Mavs finished out of the top four. Even in that super competitive context the Rockets still managed to end the season with a record that was competitive with the real elite squads in the West. A tweak here or there and the Rockets could be in position to make some noise. There's no question that if you look at the starting five the biggest issue is Rafer. Yao and T-Mac aren't going anywhere, probably. Scolandry is showing itself to be more than capable at the power forward position. And Shane Battier is not exposed game after game like Alston is. Alston's got heart and grit. That's why a lot of fans like him. But he doesn't know when to stop shooting the ball, and when he's cold his passing and defense really aren't enough to compensate.
I don't mean to bump this thread, but I was doing a search on Calderon stuff and missed this post. The reason this jumped out at me is the biggest change that Colangelo has made to his lineup is bringing in better point guards. You can't credit Rafer for his team's low FG% in 04-05 without taking out Rafer's low FG%, and you can't devalue Calderon in 07-08 for his team's high FG% without taking out his high FG%. Rafer's teammates in 04-05 shot .449 while Calderon's teammates in 07-08 shot .462. This comes out to a fraction less than 1 made basket by his teammates per game. When you consider that roughly 40% of their baskets are unassisted and that Calderon sees about 1/3rd of the team's assists, you can see why just tacking on +1 to Rafer's per-36 minute assists (if he were playing in place of Calderon on today's Raptors) is an overestimate. Not only that, but I'm not sure any estimate applies there. It's chicken/egg really, but are a point guard's assists merely a byproduct of good FG% from his teammates, or does the point guard's ability to create open shots for his teammates (thereby increasing their FG%) play a role? If you gave Calderon the exact same shots as Rafer Alston on the Rockets at his current percentages, our point guard's scoring average would go from Rafer's 13.1 to 16.5. That's not including any impact that his better playmaking would have (though his assists would go down playing with T-Mac). The "problem" with Calderon, and I use that term loosely, is he's a very unselfish offensive player -- too unselfish given his shooting numbers. He has one of the lowest 'shots per 40 minutes' totals among starting point guards (11.4 compared to Rafer's 14.7). You would likely lose some on defense, but how much is a guessing game. His steals are extremely close to Rafer's (1.45 per 40 minutes to Rafer's 1.52) but there's way more to defense than that. Still, the Rockets were not very good on three-point defense... their phenomenal strength is in their interior defense.
Rafer's man defense, much like Battier and everyone else on the rockets is not really spectacular and a little overrated. If Calderon tried hard enough he could be just as good on that end. As far as the statistics go...i don't really know how it translates here. Calderon's team has better shooters but that raptors team with Rafer had some decent shooters as well. Calderon is clearly much better than Alston. I just don't know how much better Calderon can make THIS team because we don't have any good shooters. I think we would be much better keeping Rafer and using our assets to bolster our roster in many areas than blowing on one guy to be our savior. I know he's a stat guy's dream but if you put him in Rafer's place i don't see us winning a championship.
Think about all the wide open looks Rafer gets as a 39% shooter. Now substitute him for a guy who shoots over 50% from the field, 43% from the 3pt line, and never turns the ball over. And you have to consider he doesn't get the looks in Toronto that he would get here with the attention Yao and TMac draw. Trust me, the difference would be felt almost instantly.
In much the same way that CP3 and D-Will have turbo-boosted their teams, Rafer has proved beyond any shadow of a doubt in just about any reasonable mind that the Rox' fate rests squarely in the Points' hands. To prove this a stat/#s guy will have to run the actual-factual numbers but it is irrefutable to me that the Houston Rockets won virtually every game Good Rafer played. Corollarily, the Houston Rockets lost virtually every game Bad Rafer played. Yes, that position affects the outcome more than TMac and/or Yao over the long haul. (ie Tyson Chandler is an All Star with Chris Paul; without him he is Theo Ratliff, at best.) To move into a true contending position the Houston Rockets must resolve their annually recurrent issue at the Point. Can RA expect RA, at this stage of his career, to settle into a consistently good pattern or must DM the GM find a better solution for '08-'09 and beyond. Can they really hope that the stars align and Brooks becomes Paul by November 1 or that Bobby Jax' contract can swoop a stud 1 next February? Is it Calderon? Forget him, he is unattainable. Colangelo the junior will not allow him to leave. Rox wanted Fernandez but Portland got him first - now, it appears he does not want a MacMillan coached team for himself and perhaps he can be Scola II? Maybe Navarro? Maybe Rafer is the reliable answer moving forward. But, please - resolve the Point now, and thus for years going forward.
The bottom line is the Rockets win with Alston in the lineup. There's good chemistry there, and that offsets some of the lack of shooting skill. I've come around to his point of view after considering Alston the weak link for a long time. I'm not against getting a better point guard, but that person would have to be not only a better shooter, but he would have to fit into the Rockets' system as well as Alston. T-Mac, et al, would have to be as comfortable with him as they are with Alston, and play as well with the new guard as they do with Alston. In other words, what's the point of a better-shooting point guard if someone else's game suffers a little as a result? It seems to me that's a tall order. It might be more realistic to stick with our starting lineup (there's something to be said for consistency and allowing the core group to play together over a long period of time), and to seek backups who can score. The Rockets are close. It seems to me the biggest need is a first-rate scorer to be a threat when T-Mac or Yao goes down with injury -- which will happen.
I'm all for upgrading at PG, and have been for years. But, I understand we have very limited resources for what we can upgrade. If we could pull off a Miller/Navarro deal, giving up this year's draft pick, that would be great. But, if we don't get some additional shooting and someone to attack the basket besides TMac, I don't see us as championship material, since we'll wear him out. That was supposed to be what Head brought us, but hasn't. (If the Rockets don't trade him, they should at least hire him a life coach to get his confidence up.) I've been under the impression that Rocket's management wouldn't trade for Artest due to chemistry. But, I heard Morey on the radio awhile back mention that they tried to get him this winter, and the price was too high for anyone. Then a few days ago read a quote of Adelman talking about how close he is to Artest, and how valuable he'd be on the Rockets. So, even with all his issues, he feels like he'd be a huge improvement here. He's so strong defensively, and can attack the basket, and play ferociously at times, as we experienced ourselves. So, in lieu of that, I'm really hoping they find a way to obtain him, and hopefully Adelman will protect the chemistry stuff. I don't see how we could get both Miller AND Artest, although that would be amazing, but I'd like to see one of them. Unfortunately, I think we have other needs that are greater than PG, as exasperating as it can be, and without what someone would want in trade. Perhaps there's an opportunity for TJ Ford or Calderon, but you know the Knicks are going to compete big time. So, we just might have to depend on what we've got. I DO believe, that Brooks will explode this next year, and could take Alston's job from him by the playoffs, and that just might be our best solution. I also expect Alston to continue in his improvement, and think he'd be a great veteran backup for stability, especially whenever he seems to be hot. One of the biggest improvements would be if our whole team got better at foul shots with some practice this summer. That alone could give us 5-10 extra points this year, and is critical if we face Utah in the playoffs again next year.
How on earth can we keep bashing Rafer considering how bad we were WITHOUT him? With Rafer- we were 2-1 against Utah (including a win on the road) and about tied with them in the first half of game 6. Without him, we lost every game. I am pretty sure he started every game of the 22 game win streak. It's obvious our offense runs much better with Rafer, T-Mac gets the ball in more comfortable positions and there is more ball movement. On the defensive side, it's the same thing, Rafer was doing a very solid job on Deron Williams. If you want to find help at PG to limit Rafer's minutes to 25-30, fine. But getting rid of Rafer is stupid at this point. What we really neeed, as Morey himself has pointed out, is a guy who can create his own shot. Not another PG.
I think because of Rafer we made the Playoff. He played very well when Yao went down. He played like a super stars in few games. I think He would be great player off the bench but not starting player for a playoff team.
DD Man you are not a realist you are a hater like most people are saying. Here we go again with the hating comments on Rafer Alston. Did you watch the playoffs, how did the rockets play with him opposed to without him. Man you are too much of a hater, just get off his @&*$.
DD is going a little far, but I think last year, almost everyone would have agreed (both Rockets fans and otherwise) that Rafer Alston was the very worst starting PG in the NBA. This year, that's a stretch... but he's still probably one of the bottom 10 or so. If he continues to be that "not bad", he may be an adequate solution for us at PG, but it's still a position we need help at, and I don't see how anyone could deny that.
As I'm sure has been covered many times, this had very little to do with how good Rafer was, and more to do with how terrible and/or inexperienced everyone behind Rafer was at running the point. No one worth listening to is saying we should just flat out get rid of Rafer (however we could even do that) -- just that he is still not that good, and his position is the weakest on our roster. I don't hate Rafer, and I really love how much he stepped up for us this year when we were struggling and in the playoffs... but he still has some glaring weaknesses and inconsistencies that we could improve on with another PG.
I love it when people call others haters because they have no leg to stand on... Yes, Rafer was important to the Rockets. No, that doesn't mean he is irreplaceable. Yes, he is in the bottom tier of PGs in the NBA No, I don't think he is good enough to win it all with... Yes, Rafer sucks. DD
Rockets 2/3 bench this season was Jackson, Head, Novak and Harris. Saying that wasn´t bigger problem than Rafer as starting PG is nuts.
Huh? Then move Rafer to the bench, that should shore it up, right? The bench? Are you kidding me? The bench? Yes it is important, but the key to most NBA teams are the starters, thay impact a game much more than the bench players. And why on earth would you think upgrading the PG position would mean that the team would not also look to upgrade the bench? They did it last year....I assume they will do it this year. But, we have one glaring HOLE on our team and it rests squarely at the most important position on the floor...the PG. DD
I just BEEELIEEEEEVE ... lol Good question. 3 things: 1) Morey was on the radio a week or so ago, and was asked about Adelman's expectations from the rookies, and he specifically mentioned that Rick expected Brooks to have a breakout season next year. He said that he needed to muscle up some, and they were going to work with him on that in the off-season, but he was expecting major improvement. 2) Brooks was the best rookie of them all last summer. That shocked me, but when he was out there with comparable talent, he outshone them. I know some guys shine in the summer leagues, and it doesn't always mean something. But, Adelman really believes in this guy, and feels that with the rule changes, "he adds a lot to our team." His confidence in him has been rather unshakable. I think that was one more reason that BJ was brought in, to help teach him Adelman's system, and provide veteran presence until Brooks develops. Look what CP3 has done for NO. I'm not saying he's Chris Paul, but Paul is only an inch taller, and in his 3rd year in the league, runner up MVP. I don't expect him to become runner-up MVP, but possibly have similar progress. 3) His Olympic Select team experience. He was very impressive, and people like Lebron, Kobe and Kidd were saying he has a real future in this league. He led the select team to win a number of times against the Olympic team of the NBA's best. That is NOT a little thing. Here's what some said: <a href="http://my.nba.com/forum.jspa?forumID=400025373">"(after beating the starting team) For the Select Team</a>, Andre Iguodala, Devin Harris and Aaron Brooks were the stars, while Channing Frye, Jeff Green, Al Jefferson and David Lee all did their part on the boards." <a href="http://my.nba.com/forum.jspa?forumID=400025373">"The Seniors even tried to put a full-court press on, perhaps to rattle the young Aaron Brooks.</a> However, Brooks, the quickest player on the floor, handled it with ease. He had a few nice drive-and-dishes, and knocked down a J. If he can do this against the best of the best, Houston should be happy with what he brings them." <a href="http://blogs.chron.com/franblinebury/2007/08/">"In addition to his on-court experience, Brooks has been pulled aside for individual talks by Kidd and Bryant.</a> Jason told him to have confidence, to turn the corner and go in to the basket with a purpose," Jones said. "He told Aaron that he's got the speed and the skills to succeed in the league. Now, it's all about having a plan, knowing in your head what you want to do and then doing it. Kobe talked to him about getting off his shot. He talked about how it was important as a point guard to know his teammates and get them the ball where they feel comfortable. And he also told him that there were times when he's got to know when to take the shot himself. You can't back down. You've got to know what you can do. Kobe and Jason both told him that he has a real future in the league and that one of the keys is just to always go out and play with confidence." So, based on that input, I am expecting some significant improvement from Brooks this next year ... and we could really use the help!
Utah had the ball up by 14 when Rafer went out of Game 6. The Rockets made their comeback late in the second quarter without Rafer.
you know rafer is a hard worker everything the critics said he could never do he worked hard on and improved at something every season in his career but at this point i would rather see him get traded so everybody could get their wish and stop using him as a scapegoat to why the rockets cant get past the first round.It's almost sad how a person like shane battier who i think is inferior to alston on the offensive side but get's a pass because he can hold kobe to 35 instead of 40.This site has been saying the same thing since he was brought in but every year gives to you the same consistent numbers about 12+ points and 5+ assist i think that is good enough for a PG but most may not feel that why so what can really be done honestly.
