Could someone please list the specifics of the lottery? How many teams? How many balls per team in descending order of finish? What happens after the ball for the # 1 pick is drawn? Thank you.
Aelliot posted the following link in another thread. It's for the past season, but unless they change assigned ball counts, nothing should change : http://www.insidestuff.com/news/draft_lottery_rules.html ------------------ <this space for rent>
Much obliged, Doc. It confirms what I thought. Trying to guess where the Rocks will draft is fun, but futile, IMHO.
Actually, it's not necessarily "futile". Only the first 3 picks are random. The rest of the picks will become set as the season is coming to a close simply because those picks are based upon records. The only real suspense is whether or not the Rockets can tank enough to get one of the first 3 picks. ------------------ <this space for rent>
I guess my point is that the Rockets don't have to tank to get a the 1st, 2nd or 3rd pick. All they have to do is be a lottery team. I don't think increased percentages mean much. The team with the best chance still has a 75% chance of not getting the first pick. If the Rockets finished with the 6th worst record, they could wind up with pick 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,or 9 depending on how the first 3 go. How can you make plans based on possibilities like that? That's what I meant by futile. It is fun to speculate, however.
How do the rocks stand on picks for this year's draft? Do we have any we've picked up through trades or owe any we've traded off? Just curious... Lee
If the Rockets finished with the 6th worst record, they could wind up with pick 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,or 9 depending on how the first 3 go. Actually, if the Rockets ended up with the 6th worst record, then it would be impossible for them to pick 4th or 5th. They'd have to be 1,2,3,6,7,8 or 9.
Moe, Understood. But the team with the worst record has a 100% chance of getting a top-4 pick. They also have roughly a 64% chance of getting a top-3 pick. Those are some good odds and quite enough to "start planning". If you have 4 players you're hot after, you are guaranteed one of those players. If you only have 3 players you're hot after, your odds are still pretty good. If someone picking ahead of you desperately needs a guard and you're not looking for a guard, their pick will more than likely have no effect on who you pick (unless of course, you're both going for the best talent available). As far as "just" being a lottery team getting you a shot at the top 3 picks, that is true. But look at it this way : As stated before, the team with the worst record has a 64% shot of getting one of the first 3 picks in the draft, but a 100% shot at getting a top-4 pick. The team with the 6th worst record has about a 21% shot of getting a top-3 pick, but no shot at getting the 4th or 5th pick. BIG difference. If I flubbed, someone correct me... my knowledge of sadistics, errr, statistics is rusty at best. ------------------ <this space for rent>
great point professor. and now I realize why Coach Silas was so damn happy last year. When his team didn't get pick 13 he knew he had a top 3 pick I'm afraid that we could drop (or rise according to your opinion) as far as the 10-11th pick. Today's website (that's the user not the date) has a tank-a-thon illustration that shows that we're within half a game or game of the next 4-5 teams. Alot of those teams are better than the Rockets (now that the Rockets don't have Bullard ) but the Rockets have been playing w/ heart lately.
Yes, and if we have to win, it better be against the Kings or even better the Jazz or Blazers. The difference between a 6 pick is tremendous from a 11 pick, and we are making me a little nervous right now. Absultely no more flubs allowed against the Mavs or Nuggs or sludge east teams. I would really like to see us make a run at the Gizzards and the GS Folders--even if Rudy has to become a players coach and we start Drew at center (I don't want the guys on the floor to try to lose but I want a combination of guys on the floors who will lose), but I don't see a serious run towards those teams happening. Atleast GS and Wash gave away their picks (I think) so they have no reason to avoid the W's.
