[Playoff futility] It's not just the injuries

I started work on this before Game 3. But a final exams in Vikings and CIA in the Third World made me put it off. Oh yeah, and a Calculus exam. And this is long. It's EXTREMELY long. To help out those who are actually interested, I've split it up into sections. Read it, don't read it, whatever. But it was a nice break to work on this in between long papers and exams.
Before flaming the crap out of me, I want to point out the following:
This is not a "Trade Yao" thread. This is not a "Trade Scola" thread. This isn't a "Trade McGrady" thread. This is an attempt to isolate a major problem with the Rockets and examine what they can do about it without blockbuster trades. Leave the "T-Mac/Yao sucks" posters to the rookies.

We've had another season pass us by. And with it went another (probably) first round exit. And, just like always, we're all searching for a reason. "It's that Elmer's Glue!" shouts Zboy, in the most under-appreciated thread on the BBS. "It's McGrady's fault!" shouts several woefully uninformed BBS rookies and ESPN analysts. "It's the injuries!" shouts the well-informed as they desperately seek an answer.

I don't believe it's really any of these. Sure, Yao's injuries have hurt things, but I'm not entirely convinced his presence would make a difference. And it's not because I think he's overrated (he's not). It's because of a mechanic I've seen in winning teams that this team lacks: balance.

Before I get all crazy-go-nuts, I want to define a couple of objectives:
1.) Define the importance of a balance between finesse and physicality in abstract terms
2.) Examine the balance between balance and physicality on teams throughout the history of the NBA
3.) Apply this concept to the Rockets, citing examples from recent play
4.) ???
5.) Profit

So, man, all one of you is still reading this. AWESOME. I'm proud of you! Good job, guy! For the rest of you seeing this going, "TOO LONG, DIDN'T READ," keep starting your "Trade T-Mac" threads.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

For the rest of us, let's put things into perspective. Physical players dominate the boards and finish. They execute plays through sheer power and determination. They dictate the pace of the game, and every (EVERY) championship team in history (I believe) has had at least one making major contributions. Sometimes, he's a major player (Bill Russell). Sometimes, he's just a role player (Dennis Rodman). The team I will use to provide an example for total physicality is any jerry sloan team.

Finesse players, on the other hand, get run down. They can't front the physical player, so they go around them. Typically, these are your point guard and shooting guards and small forwards (point forwards?). They're hitting big shots. They have fancy, flashy moves to get past the physical players. And they count on the physicality of their opponents to draw fouls and get to the line. The ultimate example of total finesse I will use is Nellie Ball.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Something I tried to emphasize before is that both finesse and physicality are important for any team seeking to win it all. And notice something: neither style alone has been particularly successful. Any time the jazz have come up against a balanced team, they have failed. Physical teams rely on being able to dictate the pace of the game. They need to dominate the boards and wear out their competition. They play a game of attrition. When this is opposed, it turns into a grindfest (i.e. Rockets/jazz last year). But when opposed by a team with a good mix of power and finesse, they falter. Their opponent forces them to change while the balanced team is still able to function as normal. But when the jazz Plan A doesn't work, they don't have that flexibility to move to Plan B. That comes from lack of finesse.

But finesse teams are very adaptable. They can change on the fly. But they get dominated by physical and balanced teams. Nellie Ball wins tons of games but not championships. They get boxed out on the boards and aside from a steal or an intercepted pass, they don't make big defensive stops. Nellie Ball sees teams front them and force them to alter their game plans. But Nellie Ball has never even reached the finals.

So It would seem that Balance > Physical > Finesse. But it's not quite so easy; Nellie Ball is extremely effective against teams that lack athleticism. They dominate through speed. This allows them to frequently get around Balanced teams who lack athleticism in several positions.
But Nellieball has still never reached the Finals.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Now how does this work on contenders? This is already going to be too long, so I'm going to focus only on the PF/C combination. It's the most important combination where power and finesse are important.

I went through and compiled a partial list of some great PF/C combinations that come to memory. Look how power is complimented by finesse:
Otis Thorpe and Hakeem Olajuwon
Kevin McHale and Robert Parish
Rasheed Wallace and Ben Wallace
Robert Horry and Shaquille O'Neal
Sam Perkins and Shawn Kemp

Finesse bigs get dominated by power bigs. The purpose of your 4/5 is to hit high-percentage shots, grab rebounds, and smother FG%. If the opposing team is winning that battle, they'll almost certainly win the game. And finesse bigs get beaten quickly by fast guards. Unless they can step in and shut off the lane, they allow layup lines. Just take a look at the 2006 NBA Finals. Bad officiating aside, the inability of Dirk and Dampier to shut off the lane allowed Dwayne Wade to have his way with the Mavs. Each finesse player (Dream, Parish, 'Sheed, Horry, Perkins) has a physical player (Thorpe, McHale, Ben, Shaq, Kemp) to grab these boards, shut off the paint, and get those high percentage shots in the low post. Before you go crazy about Hakeem, remember that was a dominant defensive player, but he would primarily play with finesse and speed on offense.

On the other hand, power players alone can't get it done. Finesse players that can hit the 3 or mid-range jumpers spread the floor. They force opposing bigs away from the paint and open up new paths and passing lanes to the basket. Having two power bigs clogs up the lane to such a degree that you reduce your 1/2/3 into jump shooters. The current jazz have balance with okur being able to shoot the 3. His ability to spread the floor KILLED the Rockets last year. Olajuwon's presence away from the basket allowed OT to throw down with the energy he always did. And Horry's ability to hit the 3 allowed Shaq (and Olajuwon) to dominate down low. This balance makes the game easier for everyone.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

So to simplify it down, power bigs clog the lane, finesse bigs get dominated by power and run over by Nellie Ball, and a power/finesse combination spreads the floor and allows the offense more room to work.

And for the Rockets, this is where the problem exists. Scola, for all the effort he puts into the game, is a finesse big. He's got great post moves and is a very smart player. But he's a finesse player through and through, one that even misses layups. Yao, despite Tom Thibodeau's best efforts, is also a finesse big. He doesn't dominate his opponents despite his size. He splits the double team and throws up hooks and jumpers. "Throw it DOWN, big man!" rarely describes Yao. And we all know his liability on defense. Scola, on defense, is also a finesse big. He plays using quick hands and smart thinking. But he doesn't get into peoples' faces and suffocate players.

This is why Carl Landry has been so important, and it is largely him who is responsible for that 22-game win streak. It's not just the energy off the bench that he provides. It's his physicality. He blocks shots, dominates opposing bigs, and doesn't allow opposing teams to impose their style on the Rockets. He allows Yao and Scola to do their work away from the basket; opponents know they have to keep someone close by to guard Landry. And with that in mind, a player like Landry needs to start beside Yao.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Don't get me wrong, the Rockets were great with the Yao/Scola combo. They had a fantastic win percentage. But the Playoffs are different. Neither is going to get the same foul calls (what little Yao got as they hammer him all day) they get during the season. And that degree of physicality has a much bigger effect on them during the Playoffs where more is allowed. It's a big reason why Nellie Ball doesn't win in the Playoffs; people can push them around there.

But something has to change with either Yao or Scola in order to win in the finals. And let me just state this for the record:

When healthy if the Rockets do not win the Finals, that season is a failure.​

​

With the talent on this team, that's the only goal. But take heart! There are a few solutions to this problem of lack of power:
1.) Scola learns to throw it down. Doubtful. Scola is not a rookie; he's been playing professionally for years. His play style is, for the most part, established.
2.) Yao remembers he's 9 feet tall and 3 metric tons. Doubtful. We've been wanting Yao to do this for YEARS. And it's not like he's not one of the best centers in the league already. Changing him is not the problem; getting someone to cover his biggest weaknesses offensively and defensively is.
4.) Genetically engineer and artificially age a hybrid of Chuck Hayes and Mike Harris. Also, imbue him with years of basketball knowledge and experience.
3.) The Rockets grab a talented big in the offseason either through free agency or a sign-and-trade. Likely, especially given that Morey's moves have created a ton of cap space for the offseason (to those of you who criticize the trade for Bobby Jackson, remember what that trade means for the offseason. Brilliant move by Morey).


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

I've mentioned Emeka Okafor as a candidate. He's big, strong, and can be the power counterpart to Scola. That means you start Landry with Yao (or you sub him in quickly like Ginobili for Finley). Okafor can absorb many of Yao's minutes, allowing him to play deeper into the season. But there are a ton of 4s and 5s out there who can provide that physical presence the Rockets lack.

Right now, the jazz hands are quite capable of winning it all. They have okur to spread the floor, allowing williams and boozer to take good shots close to the bucket. They have boozer fronting and straight-up beating Scola, taking away the constant need for okur to be close by. The Spurs, Celtics, Pistons, and Hornets have the same thing with Duncan/Thomas, KG*/Perkins, Wallace/McDyess/Maxiell, and West/Chandler.
*KG can play with both power and finesse. He's a special case that can do whatever he wants.

Now, I will admit, I'm probably not entirely correct on all of this. And maybe I misjudged a player or two. But I don't think that takes away from the overall principle that the Rockets NEED power to go with their finesse. But time and time again, Scola and Yao get challenged and back down.

 

Yao last season:
.410 FG%, 10.3 RPG. But Yao's not the problem; it's the help that's the problem. And his PFs have long not played the role. Seeing Scola getting dominated (which would definitely be improved simply with Yao's presence) doesn't really inspire confidence.

Oh, no doubt there DD. But our perimeter players won't do jack if no one is around to seal off lines to the bucket. And we really can't fix that any time soon... I don't think there's a heck of a lot of teams out there really high on Luther Head, Steve Novak, and Bobby Jackson. Just a guess...

You know a lot of this has to do with my own basketball philosophy. Most notably, I'm NOT a believer in the 3pt shot

 

I agree that power can come from anywhere in the lineup, but in the interest of time, I hit the PF position. Plus, the Rockets aren't replacing McGrady or getting a top-flight PG any time soon. And utah has strength all throughout the lineup. That said, Scola IS getting hammered. And it's bad. But that's Playoff basketball. Rather than changing the system (which won't happen), the only thing the Rockets can do is control their team.
But remember when all of us wanted a good, physical PF to stretch the floor and take the double team off of Yao? The Rockets still don't have that. They have a good, FINESSE point guard who is doing a darn fine job.

And it's not just a "The Rockets lost their best guy" thing. This goes beyond it; I'm posing the question of whether or not the Rockets can get it all done even if Yao is back. My conclusion is if they can get some physical help to allow Yao and McGrady (and, hopefully, Brooks) to do their thing, they absolutely can. If not, I'm not so certain.