[Fox Sports] West playoffs: Why's and why nots

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Here comes Charley...hatin' again...I though that he was waived from his contract!

West playoffs: Why's and why nots
by Charley Rosen
Charley Rosen is FOXSports.com's NBA analyst and author of 14 books about hoops, the current one being No Blood, No Foul.
Updated: April 18, 2008, 4:08 PM EST Comment

Depending on your inclination, the following is either balanced reporting or an exercise in sophistry. In any event, here's a run-down of the Western Conference qualifiers along with the reasons why they will or will not reach the championship series.

Lakers

Why they can: These guys have no trouble scoring. The execution of their triangle offense has been mostly immaculate — all the requisite passing, cutting, positioning and unselfishness have weaved a delicate balance that has been devastating as of late. Their second unit is perhaps the best in the league — both fast and quick, and therefore capable of running off on scoring binges that can leave opponents in the dust. Lamar Odom is thriving with the reduced pressure of his now being the team's third option. Derek Fisher adds another clutch shooter to perfectly complement Kobe. Pau Gasol looks like he's been playing the triangle for years. Phil Jackson is one of the most resourceful coaches extant.

Why they can't: Playoff competition is much more physical than the regular-season game, and both Gasol and Odom are finesse players who are vulnerable to being bullied in the paint. Ronny Turiaf is tough, but he's simply not big enough. Fisher's wide body makes it difficult for him to fight his way around/through high screen/rolls. Jordan Farmar's pick-and-roll defense is also deficient. The effectiveness of the second unit depends too much on Sasha Vujacic's ability to nail 3-pointers. Kobe is the only stopper. The perimeter defense is a sometimes thing. The delicate balance of the offense is always threatened by Kobe's latent desire to unilaterally take over any given game.

The path to glory: The Lakers should have no trouble stepping all over the Nuggets. Their next opponent would be Utah or Houston. The Jazz would be formidable, but beatable. The Rockets would be lucky to extend a series vs. the Lakers to six games.

Hornets

Why they can: Chris Paul is explosive enough to single-handedly control a ball game. If his long-range shots are falling, then he can be on the verge of unstoppable. And with CP3 on the job, the Hornets screen/roll game is hard to defend. David West is an underrated scorer (and rebounder) from near and far. Peja Stojakovic's perimeter shooting has the capability of stretching defenses past their limits, and also of scoring lots of points in a hurry. Tyson Chandler can clog the middle, and roll himself into dunks. Jannero Pargo has become a potent scorer off the bench. The Hornets' steal-happy, shot-blocking defense triggers their devastating running game.

Why they can't: Paul will get bumped and bullied off his game, plus he's had a difficult time dealing with pre-screen/roll double-teams. Peja will continue his history of choking in the playoffs. Chandler will get in early foul trouble. The Hornets' lack of playoff experience will result in mental and physical mistakes.

The path to glory: Even with the home-court advantage, the Hornets will have to play flawlessly to overcome the Mavs.

Spurs

Why they can: Experience is their primary advantage, and it's a powerful one. Tim Duncan can always take over a game. Tony Parker can zip into the middle of most defenses. Manu Ginobili usually finds a way to score. Bruce Bowen is a legitimate stopper. Michael Finley is a clutch shooter. Jacque Vaughn is better than expected. Ime Udoka is a valuable sub. Overall, the Spurs play championship-caliber defense and unselfish, multi-faceted offense. While Gregg Popovich can sometimes be stubborn, he's one of the best devisers of an effective game plan around.

Why they can't: Doubling TD on the move (with a big) has dramatically hindered his effectiveness. Parker's jumpers are still iffy. Ginobili's increased playing time has worn him down to a discernible degree. Fabricio Oberto misses easy shots and is always in foul trouble. Kurt Thomas isn't nearly the player he used to be. Finley's jump shooting has been erratic. Robert Horry is unavailable. Except for Ginobili, there's no firepower coming off the bench. The Spurs have always been plagued with long periods in which their offense has struggled, but this scenario has been more prevalent this season than ever before. Because several players are past their peak seasons, too often too many of the Spurs appear to be on the verge of exhaustion.

The path to glory: Right off the bat, the Suns present a formidable road-block. Should the Spurs find a way to get past Phoenix, they should be able to grunt and groan their way to the conference finals.

Jazz

Why they can: Deron Williams facilitates a well-conceived offense that depends on movement, pinpoint passing, and physical confrontations. Plus, D-Will can create his own shots (both in the pivot and on the outskirts) and make enough of them to turn any ball game. Carlos Boozer is a tough customer in the paint and can also drop mid-range jumpers. Mehmet Okur's 3-pointers create enough room for Boozer to operate inside, and both of them are rebounding fools. Andrei Kirilenko runs around like a mad scientist, freeing himself for layups, blocking shots, making steals and rescuing loose balls. If AK-47 is also hitting his jumpers, then Utah's offense really fires on all cylinders. Matt Harpring scores inside and also on curls. Kyle Korver can hit 3s from never-never land. Overall, Utah's in-your-face-and-chest style of play is perfectly styled for the playoffs.

Why they can't: They commit too many turnovers, especially on the road. Kirilenko can be successfully bodied into marginality. Williams is the only player who can routinely create his own scoring opportunities. With all of their power, the Jazz lack a necessary degree of athleticism.

The path to glory: The Jazz should have little difficulty grounding the Rockets.

Rockets

Why they can: Nobody's quite sure how the Yao-less Rockets have gotten this far. Tracy McGrady's shooting and passing? Shane Battier's lock-down defense? Luis Scola's hard-nosed play in the paint? Rafer Alston's creativity? Rick Adelman's fleet-footed and quick-handed defensive strategies? Bonzi Wells' explosive baseline scoring? Somehow, though, it's the inspirational force of Dikembe Mutombo's presence that has kept the Rockets aloft.

Why they can't: T-Mac tends to be invisible too often, and doesn't put sufficient pressure on defenses to get himself to the foul line. Scola's lack of defense can't be disguised. Alston is injured, and while Bobby Jackson is more than an able replacement, he's not nearly as quick nor as explosive. Once Dikembe exhausts his limited PT, the Rockets have no sizeable big to plug the gaping hole in the middle.

The path to glory: The Jazz are too tough for the Rockets. Odds are that this is where the Rockets' dazzling flight gets grounded.
NOTE: There is also a poll as for who will win the West... vote for the Rockets! They are at 0% as of this post!


Suns

Why they can: Shaq sets the best screens since the heyday of Wayne Embry, and he rolls to the hoop like a runaway train. More importantly, Shaq still commands a huge area in both lanes — and can still take advantage of straight-up defenders. Steve Nash and company can still scoot and shoot, but with Shaq and Grant Hill, Phoenix now has a viable half-court offense. With Shawn Marion gone, Amare Stoudemire has taken full advantage of the extra shots that now belong to him. Their defense is better than it's ever been at any point in Mike D'Antoni's reign, and if their offense doesn't rely as much on 3-balls, it's just about as potent. Nash's creativity and clutch shooting should never be underestimated.

Why they can't: Shaq can no longer explode for 25-plus points and therefore doesn't have to be two-timed. Shaq's rapidly diminishing lateral movement makes him helpless against any opponent who can turn, face and go. It's not inconceivable, then, that the Big Cactus can turn into the Big Mirage. While Nash plays acceptable team defense, he's also extremely vulnerable when offenses attack him directly. Raja Bell is the only dependable defender and he's always in foul trouble. Stoudemire's immaturity leads to numerous questionable decisions. The bench is extremely short, with Leandro Barbosa and the erratic Boris Diaw getting all the meaningful minutes. Overall, the Suns' defense still may not be championship quality.

The path to glory: The Suns are capable of vanquishing any opponent from here to, and including, the finals. That's why the Spurs-Suns matchup is the jewel of the first round.

Mavericks

Why they can: Jason Kidd gives them heart, confidence and on-the-money passes, and has adjusted his game to his teammates. Dirk Nowitzki can score a lot of points from a lot of different places and angles. Josh Howard is on the verge of becoming a superstar. Let Jason Terry go right, or let him get his feet set, and the ensuing shots will usually find the middle of the hole. Erick Dampier is a playoff-ready bruiser. Tyronn Lue can score. Brandon Bass is a powerful presence off the bench. When healthy, Jerry Stackhouse is a rugged scorer. Offense is the Mavs' game, and when they're riding high, they're awfully tough to beat.

Why they can't: Where J-Kidd's defense used to be top-notch, he's lost a step-and-a-half and can't keep up with the jet-set that play point guard in the West. Moreover, Kidd's shooting is highly suspect. There are no adequate bigs behind the foul-prone Dampier. Nowitzki and Terry have a long history of appling-up in the clutch. It's difficult for the Mavs to sustain their defensive intensity for a full 48 minutes.

The path to glory: Beating New Orleans should be cake, but that's about as far as these guys can go.

Nuggets

Why they can: George Karl is counting on divine intervention. Barring such a miracle, the Nuggets will go one and done.

Why they can't: No defense. Kenyon Martin is usually AWOL in critical games. No defense. A.I.'s gambles are more costly than they are productive. No defense. Carmelo Anthony is playing under the cloud of his recent arrest. No defense. Marcus Camby blocks shots but is an unreliable defender who also takes too make unwise shots. No defense. Eduardo Najera doesn't play enough. No defense. J. R. Smith can keep both teams in the game. No defense. This team lacks character and maturity. But above all they play no defense.

The path to glory: Will quickly hit a dead end in L.A.

 

Fair...are you crazy?

You know what is pathetic about this old fart. Here it is...

Why they can: Nobody's quite sure how the Yao-less Rockets have gotten this far. Tracy McGrady's shooting and passing? Shane Battier's lock-down defense? Luis Scola's hard-nosed play in the paint? Rafer Alston's creativity? Rick Adelman's fleet-footed and quick-handed defensive strategies? Bonzi Wells' explosive baseline scoring? Somehow, though, it's the inspirational force of Dikembe Mutombo's presence that has kept the Rockets aloft.

This guy doesn't even know that Bonzi got traded!!!