Magic Number for the Rockets against West Playoff Contenders

I think that's what the rules mean when they say division winners get the first three positions (first three slots in the top 4, with the last one going to the best team that didn't win its division).

This happened last year. The Rocket had the 4th best record in the league. Utah had the 5th but won their division (Northwest), so they got a top 4 seed along with the Suns (Pacific) and Mavs (Southwest). The Spurs also joined them in the top 4 as the best team that didn't win its division. They were seeded Mavs #1, Suns #2, Spurs #3, Jazz #4, Rockets #5. Rockets had HCA over the Jazz in the first round.

 

<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Games&nbsp;H2H&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Div&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Con&nbsp;&nbsp;Overall&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Magic&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</B>
<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Team&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W/L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;H2H&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Left&nbsp;&nbsp;TB&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Div&nbsp;TB&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Conf&nbsp;&nbsp;TB&nbsp;TieBreak&nbsp;&nbsp;Number Diff</B>

&nbsp;1&nbsp;&nbsp;Lakers&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;56-25&nbsp;&nbsp;2-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;36-15&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;3</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
&nbsp;2&nbsp;&nbsp;Hornets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;55-25&nbsp;&nbsp;2-2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;10-5&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;33-17&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;4</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
&nbsp;3&nbsp;&nbsp;Rockets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;54-25&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;8-8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;32-17&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
&nbsp;4&nbsp;&nbsp;Jazz&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;53-27&nbsp;&nbsp;1-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;32-18&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
&nbsp;5&nbsp;&nbsp;Spurs&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;54-26&nbsp;&nbsp;2-2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;10-6&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;31-19&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;3</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;(-1)
&nbsp;6&nbsp;&nbsp;Suns&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;53-27&nbsp;&nbsp;2-2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;29-21&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
&nbsp;7&nbsp;&nbsp;Mavericks&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;50-30&nbsp;&nbsp;1-3&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;9-6&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;32-18&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Bridled</B>
&nbsp;8&nbsp;&nbsp;Nuggets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;48-32&nbsp;&nbsp;2-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;29-21&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Dusted</B>
&nbsp;9&nbsp;&nbsp;Warriors&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;48-32&nbsp;&nbsp;2-2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;27-23&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Vanquished</B>

* Indicates that the Tie Break is final and cannot be changed due to the outcomes of upcoming games. The Magic Numbers are calculated on an assumption that we will lose the Tie Break unless it's already been clinched. If we clinch a Tie Break, that will drop the Magic Number 1 point.

Here are the Magic Numbers after the <B>Spurs @ Lakers</B> game.

I’m posting this after the Spurs-Kings game because I wanted to analyze the results <B>now</B>. I’ll post the full day's Magic Numbers after we play Denver later on.

First a look at the remaining schedules:
<B>Rockets:</B> @Nuggets, @Jazz, Clippers
<B>Hornets:</B> Clippers, @Mavs
<B>Lakers:</B> <STRIKE>Kings</STRIKE> Spoilers
<B>Spurs:</B> @Spoilers, Jazz

Lakers beat the Spurs! Without Manu, I can’t say I’m surprised. It was tied at the half, but a short-handed San Antonio went through another scoring drought and got wiped out in the second half. The Spurs fall to #5, only 1 game up on Phoenix. Keep in mind that Phoenix has the Tie Break advantage over the Spurs. If the Spurs lose to the Sacramento Spoilers or the Jazz, they are in serious jeopardy of falling all the way to #6.

The Rockets, meanwhile, move up to #3. If we win tonight, we’ll still be #3, tied with the Hornets and a ½ game back of LA. However, if we win out, we get at least the #2 seed.

Assuming we win out, the following are true:
If the Lakers beat the Kings AND the Hornets win out, we are guaranteed the #1 seed. We wouldn’t be the division winner or have home court over the Hornets, but we would be the #1 seed. This scenario has been beaten to death (and then some) in this thread. I will continue to assume this until someone can cite a rule stating explicitly that a division winner can’t be seeded lower than a team from its division.

If the Hornets lose at least one game, we win the Southwest division, we are the #1 seed, and we have home court over every team in the Western Conference.

We have pretty good odds to stay ahead of the Spurs at this point even with the Rockets having @Nuggets, @Jazz on their plate the next two evenings. The Spurs close with @Spoilers, Jazz. Our Magic Number is 3 to close them out. I’m going to assume a victory over the Clippers, so you just need to find a combination of 2 Rocket victories or Spur losses. It seems pretty likely. If we stay ahead of the Spurs, we will get a top 3 seed.

We need to keep pace with the Lakers to get at least the #2 seed and face the Mavericks, or even the #1 seed and face the Warriors\Nuggets. The Lakers also have a game with the Spoilers on Tuesday. We really don’t want the #3 seed where we would draw the Suns or Spurs. We’d have HCA, but I’d much rather be at #5.

 

I think Mike Breen said it best. "If Houston sneaks in then it becomes a three team tie breaker and all hell breaks loose."