Magic Number for the Rockets against West Playoff Contenders

<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Games&nbsp;H2H&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Div&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Con&nbsp;&nbsp;Overall&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Magic&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</B>
<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Team&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W/L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;H2H&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Left&nbsp;&nbsp;TB&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Div&nbsp;TB&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Conf&nbsp;&nbsp;TB&nbsp;TieBreak&nbsp;&nbsp;Number Diff</B>

&nbsp;1&nbsp;&nbsp;Hornets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;54-22&nbsp;&nbsp;2-2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;10-5&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;32-14&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;9</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;(-1)
&nbsp;2&nbsp;&nbsp;Spurs&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;53-24&nbsp;&nbsp;2-2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;10-6&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;30-17&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;7</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;(-1)
&nbsp;3&nbsp;&nbsp;Lakers&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;53-24&nbsp;&nbsp;2-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;33-14&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;6</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;(-1)
&nbsp;4&nbsp;&nbsp;Jazz&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;51-26&nbsp;&nbsp;1-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;30-17&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;5</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;(-1)
&nbsp;5&nbsp;&nbsp;Rockets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;52-25&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;8-8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;30-17&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
&nbsp;6&nbsp;&nbsp;Suns&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;51-26&nbsp;&nbsp;1-2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1H&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;27-20&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;5</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;(-2)
&nbsp;7&nbsp;&nbsp;Mavericks&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;48-29&nbsp;&nbsp;1-3&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;9-6&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;30-17&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;(-1)
&nbsp;8&nbsp;&nbsp;Nuggets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;46-31&nbsp;&nbsp;2-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;27-20&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Dusted</B>
&nbsp;9&nbsp;&nbsp;Warriors&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;46-31&nbsp;&nbsp;2-2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;26-21&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Vanquished</B>

* Indicates that the Tie Break is final and cannot be changed due to the outcomes of upcoming games. The Magic Numbers are calculated on an assumption that we will lose the Tie Break unless it's already been clinched. If we clinch a Tie Break, that will drop the Magic Number 1 point.

<B>Clinched #7 Seed</B>

Here is the latest batch of Magic Numbers after all games were played on <B>April 6</B>.

Sorry for the delay...the Nugget double-overtime and a home-cooked meal by my wife held me up a bit.

It was a great night for the Rockets. They hammered the Clippers and officially clinched the #7 seed over the Warriors and Nuggets along with a Playoff berth. Next up: Dallas and the #6 seed. We also moved up to the #5 seed in the current standings with Phoenix’s loss.

We need to send Mark Cuban a thank you card. The Mavericks staged a huge fourth quarter comeback and defeated the Suns in Phoenix, snapping their 7 game winning streak. The loss reduces the Magic Number for the Suns an additional point and dropped Phoenix to the #6 seed.

The Hornets continue their bid for the #1 seed, beating the Warriors.

The Spurs took care of the Blazers, which earned them a spot in the Playoffs.

Lakers smacked the Kings, keeping pace with the Spurs for the #2 seed and moving really close to clinching the Pacific. Their Magic Number over the Suns is 3.

The Nuggets choked away a late lead and lost a shootout (isn’t it always with the Nuggets?) in double-overtime to the Sonics.

As I stated earlier in this thread, I’m going to keep posting daily results until the season is over so we can monitor where we stand against other teams as we fight for playoff position.

On tap for Monday: The NBA goes dark while Memphis and Kansas play (yawn)

The NBA returns on Tuesday with a full slate of games: Jazz at Hornets, Suns at Grizzlies, Sonics at Mavs, Lakers at Blazers, Kings at Warriors, Nuggets at Clippers

 

Each Rocket victory reduces all Numbers by 1. A loss by an opponent drops their Number by 1.

So 2 more Rocket wins (Sonics, Clippers) will also do the trick as well. The same applies if Dallas loses 2 games.

 

The Nuggets have a slight edge on the Tie Break. If those two teams wind up tied at the end of the season even if Golden State wins on Thursday, the Nuggets would win the Tie Break.

Warriors: Kings, Nuggets, Clippers, @Suns, Sonics
Nuggets: @Clippers, @Warriors, @Jazz, Rockets, Grizzlies

Slight nod to the Warriors for an easier schedule plus the Thursday game is in Oakland.

Golden State getting in would be epic though. We could get:
Spurs vs Mavs - Great matchup
Suns vs Lakers - Third year in a row and now with Shaq and Kobe
Jazz vs Rockets - Rematch of last year's 7 game series
Warriors vs Hornets - Can the Warriors knock off a 1 seed two years in a row?

 

That's not quite correct. First the division winners are determined. Right now Hornets, Jazz, and Lakers. Then the winningest non-division winner is picked (this doesn't include any of the division winners so the three team tie break is discarded). If we tie with the Spurs, they get the Tie Break and are awarded a top 4 seed. Then 1-4 are sorted by record, and the Spurs would get the Tie Break over the Lakers.

Three team tie breaks with the top 4 seeds\division winner rules make for really weird seedings.

 

That's exactly how it would work. The way they divvy up the top 4 spots to division winners and the winningest team makes for really odd seedings when you start having three-team tie breaks. The #5 seed would have home court over #4. It happened last year and isn't that weird. But a #6 seed having home court over a #3 seed is just downright odd.

This scenario is why we need to try to catch the Lakers before the end of the season. If we wind up 6 and have to face them, I'd rather do it with home court.

Stern needs to seriously adjust the playoff seedings next year. I'm hopeful for a 16 team tournament made up from both conferences.

 

The NBA is off today, so I thought it would be a good time to take stock of where we stand in the Western Conference Playoff race. We clinched a Playoff berth yesterday and are assured at least the #7 seed after we closed out the Nuggets and Warriors. We have only 5 more games left to knock the rest of our Magic Numbers down to zero. This uses the Magic Numbers after all games were played on April 6.

Things are starting to come into focus. The top 6 seeds have clinched Playoff berths and the Mavericks look like a lock to get in. We have the #5 seed and control our own destiny to get home court in the first round. The question is how the seeding race shakes out and the first-round playoff matchups. Let’s look at the Numbers and see if we can make some sense from them.

<B>The Winnables: 2 Games</B>
Sonics, Clippers

We have two games left against cake teams at home. These are gimme games, but ones the Rockets cannot flub. I’m going with the assumption that we’ll beat these teams. That takes care of the Mavericks. It leaves the Jazz and Suns at 3, the Lakers at 4, the Spurs at 5, and the Hornets at 7.

<B>The Slugfest: 3 Games</B>
Suns, @Nuggets, @Jazz

We have three tough games left on our schedule, and naturally two of them are against the teams we are in a dogfight with over seeding and home court. Beating the Jazz and the Suns would give us a tremendous leg up on getting home court in the first round.

We still have Tie Breaks to be decided against the Jazz and Suns. Winning the Tie Break drops the Magic Number 1 point.

<B> Top Eight West Contenders</B>
<B>Nuggets</B>: @Clippers, @Warriors, @Jazz, Rockets, Grizzlies

We have clinched a better record than the Nuggets. The Nuggets are in a dogfight with the Warriors for the last Playoff spot and have really shot themselves in the foot by losing back-to-back games to the Kings and Sonics. The Warriors and Nuggets play on Thursday in Golden State in a game that will probably determine who gets in. The Nuggets have a tough 3 game stretch that could easily be three losses with the way they have played the last few games.

If the Nuggets and Warriors wind up tied, the Nuggets will have the Tie Break advantage, but I think Golden State will win on Thursday, the Nuggets will lose a few more games, and the Warriors close them out.

Likelihood: Done
Magic Number: Dusted
Magic Number over Warriors: 5
Magic Number over Mavericks: 7
Prognosis: #9

<B>Warriors</B>: Kings, Nuggets, Clippers, @Suns, Sonics

We have clinched a better record than the Warriors. Golden State is in the aforementioned dogfight with the Nuggets, but things seem to favor the Warriors right now. The showdown with the Nuggets is in Golden State, they have 3 cake games left, the Nuggets have not been playing well, and the Nuggets have 3 tough games on their schedule.

Thursday is going to be a fabulous game. The over\under might be 300, but the Warriors play that game better than Denver. Despite their schizo personality, I think Golden State rights itself enough to make the Playoffs and take a shot at another #1 seed.

Likelihood: Done
Magic Number: Vanquished
Magic Number over Nuggets: 6
Magic Number over Mavericks: 8
Prognosis: #8

<B>Mavericks</B>: Sonics, Jazz, @Blazers, @Sonics, Hornets

We knock them out by winning our Winnable Games. What a difference a week makes. I was ready to bury this team along with most of the world. They have 3 cake games as well as pair of tough games, but those 2 are at home. Winning those 3 games gets them into the Playoffs. They look like a lock to beat out the Warriors and Nuggets to take the #7 seed. Rising above that will be very difficult. They have the Tie Break over the Suns, but being at least 3 back with 5 to play is just too much to make up.

Likelihood: Very High
Magic Number: 2
Magic Number over Rockets: 9
Magic Number over Nuggets: 4
Magic Number over Warriors: 3
Magic Number over Suns: 8
Prognosis: #7

<B>Suns</B>: @Grizzlies, @Spurs, @Rockets, @Warriors, Blazers

We knock them out with a combination of 3 Slugfest victories or Sun losses. They lost a huge game to Dallas yesterday that gives us a small advantage over them. @Spurs and @Warriors are both games I think (and really, really hope) that they will lose, and I think we have a good shot at taking one of our Slugfest games.

We play the Suns April 11. They are currently up 2-1 in the Head to Head. A victory over them would tie us at 2 apiece. That would throw the Tie Break to the Conference Record, where they are currently 3 games back. It would only take a win for us over the Clippers or Sonics to clinch a better conference record. Essentially, beating the Suns on Friday will drop the Suns 3 points and close them out. We can beat out the Suns if we lose this game, but it requires us to do well against Denver and Utah. Big, big game!

The Suns have fallen two games behind the Lakers and have lost the Tie Break. A division title looks pretty bleak for them at this point, so the Suns are almost certain to be the #5 or #6 seed.

Likelihood: Good (Very High if we win on April 11)
Magic Number: 5
Magic Number over Rockets: 7
Magic Number over Lakers: 8
Magic Number over Jazz: 6
Magic Number over Mavericks: 3
Prognosis: #6

<B>Jazz</B>: @Hornets, @Mavs, Nuggets, Rockets, @Spurs

We knock them out with a combination of 3 Slugfest victories or Jazz losses. The Jazz close with 5 really tough games. They are a terrible road team (16-22) and have 3 rough road contests coming up (@Hornets, @Mavs, @Spurs), and I think they drop at least 2 if not all three of those contests. They have two home games left and are 35-4 at home, but 2 of those losses were to the Nuggets and Rockets. I think we win at least 1 of our Slugfest games, and the Jazz drop 2 or 3 games. That will knock them out.

The Rockets play the Jazz April 21, and the winner of that game gets the Tie Break. Winning that single game drops the Jazz Magic Number by 3. As stated above, they are an excellent home team but we did account for one of their home losses. Even if we lose this game, we are in pretty good shape to close this team out.

A week ago, the Nuggets had an outside chance to win the Northwest division. That’s not going to happen now. That means Utah will get a top 4 seed. They are going to have a tough time catching the Spurs or Lakers, so they’re probably pegged into the #4 seed. The question is whether they get home court in the first round. They have a better shot of achieving that if Phoenix is the #5 seed (which of course won’t happen ).

Likelihood: Good (Very High if we win on April 21)
Magic Number: 5
Magic Number over Rockets: 8
Magic Number over Nuggets: 1
Magic Number over Suns: 5
Magic Number over Lakers: 8
Magic Number over Spurs: 8
Prognosis: #4 (no home court)

<B>Lakers</B>: @Blazers, @Clippers, Hornets, Spurs, Kings

We knock them out with a combination of 4 Slugfest victories or Laker losses. The Lakers have 3 cake games on their schedule, and wining those clinches the Pacific Division crown as well as a better record than the Jazz. They look certain to get a top 3 seed.

The big question is can they snag a top 2 seed. They are fighting for those with the Spurs and Hornets, and naturally enough they draw both of these teams at home (this really is the best Playoff race ever). They won’t catch the Hornets, but they could sneak past the Spurs. The Spurs-Lakers game is essentially for the Tie Break, so the winner will likely prevail in the race for the #2 seed. I just have a feeling the Spurs will roll them in this game.

Likelihood: Not Good
Magic Number: 6
Magic Number over Rockets: 5
Magic Number over Suns: 3
Magic Number over Jazz: 3
Magic Number over Spurs: 6
Magic Number over Hornets: 8
Prognosis: #3

<B>Spurs</B>: Suns, Sonics, @Lakers, @Kings, Jazz

We knock them out with a combination of 5 Slugfest victories or Spur losses. They do have the Suns, @Lakers, Jazz on their schedule, but I think they’ll win as least one of those. I also think it will be difficult for us to win 2 or more of our Slugfest games. It’s pretty unlikely that we’ll catch them.

The Spurs are rolling right now, but they are going to have a tough time catching the Hornets for the Southwest Division crown. That means that they’ll need to be the winningest non division winner to get a Top 4 seed. I think that’s almost certain to happen. They need to beat out the Rockets and Suns. A victory over the Suns on Tuesday would just about knock Phoenix out. However, they would lose the Tie Break to Phoenix if they lose this game. The Rockets have already lost the Tie Break to them, which makes it difficult to catch them.

They do look certain to close out the Jazz with Utah’s tough schedule and with the Spurs drawing Sonics, @Kings. This means they are almost a lock for a top 3 seed.

The big question is can they beat out the Lakers. We’ll probably know when the Spurs go to LA on Sunday.

Likelihood: Bleak
Magic Number: 7
Magic Number over Rockets: 4
Magic Number over Suns: 4
Magic Number over Jazz: 4
Magic Number over Lakers: 6
Magic Number over Hornets: 8
Prognosis: #2

<B>Hornets</B>: Jazz, @Wolves, @Lakers, @Kings, Clippers, @Mavs

We knock them out with a combination of 7 Slugfest victories or Hornet losses. This isn’t going to happen. Their Magic Number over us is 3, and they still have @Wolves, @Kings, Clippers on their schedule.

The big question is can they win the Southwest Division and hold onto the #1 seed. The Hornets have won a fistful of tough games over the past few weeks and are rolling into the Playoffs right now. They have 3 tough games on their schedule, but right now I’d say they win at least 2, which would lock them in at the top spot.

Likelihood: Abysmal
Magic Number: 9
Magic Number over Rockets: 3
Magic Number over Spurs: 4
Magic Number over Lakers: 5
Magic Number over Jazz: 3
Prognosis: #1

<B>Final Tally</B>
The Hornets will be the #1 seed.
The Spurs and Lakers could swap the #2 and #3 seed.
The Jazz will be the #4 seed.
Home court between the #4 and #5 seed is very much up for grabs.
The Suns and Rockets could swap the #5 and #6 seed.
The Mavericks will be the #7 seed.
The Nuggets and Warriors will likely decide who gets the #8 seed when they play on Thursday.

<B>Prediction -</B> We will beat the Suns and take the #5 seed, and we will close with a better record than the Jazz and have home court in the first round.

 

We only have to knock Utah's number down 5. They should lose 2, but we need to take care of the Sonics, Clippers, and either Denver of Phoenix. Of course if we win in Utah, that knocks it down 3, but I'm not feeling too good about that game.