I seem to be the only one around to think we have a great team already. Starters: Francis: Yes, I said it, FRANCHISE IS BACK! I believe in him! T-mac: Nuff said. Battier: DPOY! Luis Scola: My friend from ARGENTINA!!! Yao: Is Yao! Though I would love to see Houston getting a SF coming of the bench or even start (Smith and Maggette, would never happen but still...)!
Gater, It is NOT all money ball, why are you so down on the guy? Les went over the cap this year and then got under it by improving the team. They took on Jackie Butler's contract....what makes you think that the Rockets are purely basing their plays on moneyball? And, how can you not like...nay...LOVE what Morey has done? He took a flawed JVG inspired roster and basically FLIPPED it in one year to a decent team oriented one....and has another off season to get even better. Lots of expiring contracts, a good young core, getting more athletic with every signing.... Hayes on the bench....what more do you want? And, please don't talk about Battier, his value is so obvious......he is an incredible asset to this team. DD
I know that Gater's belief for years is that the Rockets should "surround Yao with greyhounds and let them run" (paraphrasing). With that being said, the Rockets have definitely taken steps in that direction. My question to Gater is this: if you had a free hand w/ the Rockets' roster, as is, with the current salary cap situation, draft picks and contracts on the roster, how would you attempt to shape the roster? Not trying to pick a fight...I'm genuinely curious to see what your vision for the Rockets would look like.
How about Patrick O'Bryant? Raw still, but he's got size and athleticism. May be a total bust, but playing in the GS scheme doesn't do much for his development. Getting him in here to work with our big man coaches and Yao may untap his potential. Should come pretty cheap as well. I know GS not picking up his option is a huge red flag, but we need a backup center for Yao and he does still have upside.
You can consider Jackie Butler's contract as part of Scola's contract value. It's still money ball. Butler's salary plus Scola's salary does not equal what Scola has added to this team. In his prime and if he stays healthy after his current contract is through, he will be able to get a contract worth at least $7-$8 million per year. Where else are you going to get the production and contribution to winning that Scola gives us for $5.2 million? Name me one other power forward making less than $5.3 million that would give us what Scola is giving us. That trade was a money ball move all the way. But money ball is just not about $ or about stats. It's about putting together the most efficient combination of talent possible for the money. I think Morey has done a great job too. Can't wait to see what happens this offseason.
would be pretty cool if you could read a report from morey on what his plans are for next season and beyond. things he would like to do and wished to do. morey if your reading this email me that. i would not share it with a soul. just highly curious.
I can't help but think he's gonna make a big push for Mike Miller using our draft pick and expirings. Somehow I think he's looking for another big time offensive contributor without giving up Battier.
Does anyone have a list of the free agents this summer? Lots of big men out there.Too bad this is the year that we aren't in desperate need of them. I think we need an athletic, taller swingman and some shooters. Who's out there?
I'm going to try to provide one answer that bridges both posts.... First and foremost, I believe to my core that the road to a Rockets championship runs through the course of surrounding Yao Ming with greyhounds. From time to time DaDakota expresses an unpopular opinion or belief and when pushed he will tell you that "it's what I believe at my core". This is how I feel about the Greyhounds Philosophy. Forget X's and O's...forget micro analysis....forget personal feelings about individual players...of all the thoughts I've had or expressed on Rockets' basketball over the years...everything else pales in comparison to this core belief. In some respects, my core belief has recently made me a small PHX Suns fans. Not that I like Steve Nash or Shaq or Amare or Raja Bell (or Steve Kerr) with anything that approaches my loyalty as a Rockets' fan. But to some extent, they are the "acid test" of my theory. They are smart, fast, athletic and (when Shaq's presence forces everyone back to their true oncourt position) NOT undersized. If the Suns go far in the playoffs, you will find me bringing this up again. Frequently. And it's worth mentioning that the 2008 Shaq is nowhere near a force as a healthy 2008 Yao. (BTW, it's not just a coincidence that McGrady has been forced to play at a faster pace than he prefers...anyone notice the results)? And yes...DaDa...Scola does hustle down the court. But you are confusing that with PF types that run and finish with thunder. Mutually exclusive events. Secondly...and somewhat dovetailed into the Greyhound Philosophy is this. Many years ago...let's say one or two seasons before Yao's draft...I noticed something. The NBA (David Stern)...to put more butts in the seats...slanted the rules to get away from "backin' it in in...backin' it in...backin' it in". In it's place went an emphasis on two things that strongly support Greyhound. The NBA zone and the emphasis of no hand-checking on the perimeter. Instead of recognizing this, the Rockets chose to surround Yao Ming (and McGrady) with standstill spotup shooters who can not create their own shots. This in my humble opinion (when coupled with Van Gundy's penchant for over-emphasizing one end of the court) was the kiss of death to championship aspirations. So, while the rest of this board...85+%...was going ga-ga over the Battier-Hayes-JVG triumvirate, I was (with much ridicule) pointing out what a house of cards it was. They were very middle of the road against teams over .500. And they struggled against taller athletic teams with any record. Count me among the few in here who were NOT surprised by the first round exit to the Jazz. Alston, Battier and Head became everyone's latest darling with the franchise record 3pt (ie, standstill spotup) shooting. But few noticed how each of them struggled mightily when the rotations to them were being performed by taller athletes on the better teams...most of those teams emphasizing a balance of offense and defense. Now...how or why does any of this form an opinion on Daryl Morey? There exists a (personal) secondary theory to the Greyhound Theory. It is called the "Injured Star Theory". In some respects, it might parallel the "Need for a 3rd Scorer" Theory but they are not fundamentally one and the same. We got into the Lottery for major injury related problems. We have for a long time had two stars with an established track record of poor health. Instead of going for someone with an upside...Roy, Gay, Sefalosha, etc...they went for a low ceiling but "consistent" player like Battier. Now, everyone one of us has a strong opinion about the trade. And everyone one of us has a strong opinion about how the Gay/Swift for Battier trade transpired. This is mine. In an NY city AM sports radio station remote interview with Jeff Van Gundy within weeks after was fired, VG expressed his version of how the trade went down. According to VG, Morey (NOT CD) brought the Battier trade to the table. VG stated he didn't have a strong opinion either way and the Les (paraphrasing) felt it was a little too much to pay since they weren't getting a pick from MEM but he (Les) signed off on it anyway. Everything about the Battier trade is exactly counter to the Greyhound and Injured Star Theories. And like everyone else that has a strong opinion, I (based upon a belief of VG who had no reason to lie at that point) fault Morey for the Battier trade. And Dada...Battier...invaluable? Not for a Lottery pick. The Spurs got Bruce Bowen's replacement (Udoka) with part on MLE...not a Lottery pick. So the next question out of your mouth would be...but hey...Morey is great because he got us Scola and Brooks and Landry, right? Not exactly. First...the Spurs were drop-dead looking to move Scola. It was among (if not the main) priority of their 2007 summer. They knew what Scola was worth and they wanted to move him to the EC. The specific target was the Cavs because of the Spurs' connection to former player (and Spurs management disciple) Danny Ferry. But the Cavaliers and Mike Brown were too focused on being the VG Rockets East. All defense and ISO LeBron with standstill shooters. The Cavs basically blew the deal. They were a Spanoulis away from having Scola. You can choose to trumpet Morey. I choose to trumpet the Cavs as being more asleep at the switch than the Rockets. IOW and IMO, Danny Ferry and Mike Brown had more to do with the Scola acquisition than Morey. Landry? I am nearly certain Clutch said Landry was entirely brought to Rockets' management attention by a team scout. And it ought to be an established fact that Landry fell so far because of an injury. It's also a fact that Hollinger had Landry rated behind Sean Williams, Big Baby, Fazekas and McRoberts. Hollinger's opinion had two points of emphasis. That Landry had been injured and that 4 year college players usually have much less upside than those coming out after one or two seasons. So while most in here are giving Morey all the Landry credit, I don't. And while most in here regard Landry as I steal...I choose to wait and see what happens in the playoffs and the ultimate effect of a history of injury. I've enjoyed Landry somewhat...especially since having to endure Chuck Hayes. But Landry is a one-dribble dunker with a potentially low (injury driven) ceiling. And again, Landry (unless I totally misunderstood Clutch) was brought to the teams' attention by a (Big Ten or mid-west college) Rockets' scout. Brooks? Again, choose your opinion. Adelman watched him in college nearly daily. I didn't initially like the pick. But I did like the (albeit under-sized) greyhound aspect. I extremely question not giving Brooks PT and losing the playoff value of a low post scoring threat for the ancient Bobby Jackson. But you're retort is...hey, Jackson has value...he's an expiring contract. Value? Really? Jackson makes slightly above the MLE....how many block buster deals are based on expiring MLE-level contracts? And please, please don't try to add 2 or 3 players to get up to $10m. IF this happens at all...it will ONLY happen at the trade deadline. This dovetails into my last Morey comment. Apart from the Battier trade going against the grain of Greyhound and Injured Stars and apart from the fact that this board gives Morey more credit than IMO is deserved, one more aspect is worth mentioning. I regard Les Alexander as a reasonably astute basketball person. And I respect the fact that he (unlike Mark Cuban) doesn't get too involved in the day to day of the team. And (unlike the majority of this board) I usually never regard Les as "cheap"...he'll pay (and do) what he feels is needed to put a competitive product on the court. But the fundamental goal in Les hiring Morey and the Money Ball magic was to avoid the repeats of the contracts given to Kelvin Cato and Mo Taylor and Shandon Anderson, etc. On the surface, not a bad idea. On the surface. I'm not going to BS anyone and tell them I am intimately familiar with the ins and outs of $Ball. I'm not. I know the basics. The rest bores me. But three things I will tell you with near certainty. First, if you're goal is to avoid Cato, Taylor, etc....you will never...let me repeat NEVER have a contract that will allow you to get a Pau Gasol-type player in a trade. Because $Ball would NEVER have allowed you to acquire a Kwame Brown. Secondly, if you totally avoid over paying (again not a bad idea on the surface) you will have a support roster full of MLE-level salaries. That's not conducive to improving your team via trades. It absolutely is NOT conducive. Lastly, the core foundation of $Ball is to gain competitive upside by avoiding the risk of over paying for talent. That ought to scream a few things at you. When the rest of the non-$Ball league is overvaluing and willing to pay Antawn Jamison $11m for year 1, and the spreadsheet tells you he's worth $8.5m tops. Your team will never NEVER consider Jamison...or Arenas or Brand or any other player that the majority rest of the non-$Ball teams are over-valuing. That's a risk that is based upon the ability to vision the upside potential of a FA. And that's a risk $Ball won't take. Further, it's a double-edged sword. Let's say I am totally wrong about Carl Landry's upside. Let's for hypothesis say he is a Restricted FA. Morey knows Landry well. He has a stack of spreadsheets to prove it. And let's say that a non-$Ball team with deep cap space...MEM perhaps...covets Landry. Morey's $Ball tells Les he shouldn't prudently pay Landry much more than the MLE. But the Grizz (or other cap rich team) think Landry is worth $7.5m for the first year and that he fits their plans. I realize the Landry hypothesis may not reflect the Landry reality. But at some point, the Morey Rockets will lose a talent that they won't pay what the league will. Save me the "but Morey doesn't make all the decisions in a vacuum" crap. If you're that confident he didn't do it alone...quit giving him all the credit. And quit relying on hypocrites to support your position. Former VG Rocket Mark Jackson sits next to VG broadcasting a Rockets game as they jointly droll over Battier. Until the ESPN gig, the same Mark Jackson was doing the Nets commentary. A near verbatim quote during a MEM-NJ game this season. Regarding the Rocket trading Rudy Gay for Battier..."I know why they (Houston) did it...I just don't think it was the best move in the long run". As for me, the Greyhounds and Injured Stars concepts dominate my opinions. And in spite of the new players being a bit more athletic, they are still under-sized and behind the curve. Other than I personally would have preferred Adelman, Rudy Gay and Swift, I'm not sure what else I would have done. I used to derive a lot of joy from imagining improving my favorite team. In spite of cap accuracy, they were far-fetched. But within the realm of possibility for CD. But I have rudely awakened to the fact that whatever I think or imagine or used to derive pleasure from FA and tradewise is 180 degrees out of phase with the reality of Morey. Morey covets Battier and will never trade him. Battier is Morey's sacred cow. Given the $Ball backdrop and apart from Rudy Gay, I can only conjure up some greyhound generalizations. My minority opinion is to move Battier and change for a top flight PG. (Actually, my dream would be Sean Williams and a salary match and turn the team over to Brooks like the Spurs did Parker). I hope they bring back Gerald Green even if it's the Summer League team. Cuban will pay him, more than the Rockets but Antoine Wright is UFA and would be nice. I'd somewhat consider overpaying for Jamison because of his ability to stretch the court. It would definitely be a long shot, but I'd inquire about either of the Josh's in ATL. Not sure he fits the greyhound mold but if you have to lose Brooks in an upgrade trade, Eddie House is unrestricted for BOS. The Warriors may not be able to keep their entire team together. Matt Barnes is UFA and played for Adelman in SAC. Pietrus is also UFA and the Warriors have to re-sign Ellis, Beidrins and O'Bryant. Donnie Walsh is likely to shake things up in NY. At 6'11", Jared Jeffries is a SF matchup problem who runs the floor well and who in my estimation would prosper with a change of scenery. Jeffries numbers are not stellar but IMHO a lot of that is mechanics not ability. And his potential strong suit...transition...is not a Knick's strong suit. Not sure how the Jazz feel about RFA CJ Miles. The Bulls have some huge roster, focus and possibly coaching decisions coming up. Probably untouchable but the Pacers have some big decisions as well. Danny Granger might be attainable if you were willing to take Dunleavy Jr's salary. Don't pay much attention to college hoops so I'll skip it. Only comment would be to de-emphasize 4 year college players. They're a lot closer to their ultimate peak. Enough...I just reminded myself who the Rockets' GM is.
GATER, Morey has a good history in the draft before the Rockets (Celtics). I think Morey goes by moneyball but has learned enough to know that he will not strictly stick to it. He has, IMO, gained a valuable amount of knowledge from CD. Do I think we need quicker players around Yao? Yes. Do I think we will survive without two 3pt shooters surrounding T-Mac and Yao? No. Battier is one. With Scola, Yao and Mac occupying the other 3 positions, our only option is to acquire a super quick PG who can hit the 3. Are those easy to come by? Absolutely not (Arenas, maybe Monta Ellis, Chris Paul, etc..) It would be nice eto surround the team with greyhounds, but you can't limit the definition to leave out important aspects such as rebounding and defense. We are a great rebounding team and a great defensive team. Say we surround Yao and Mac with Josh Smith, Josh Childress and TJ Ford. Who is rebounding the ball? Our entire team can be posted up. No one can give us a reliable 3pt shot (around 40% with a decent number of attempts). How will this team survive? To some extent, I agree with you. But as you mentioned, what you would like is out of the realm of possibility. It costs a tremendous amount of money to acquire a PG who's lighting quick and hits the 3 as well as a PF who's extremely explosive and can rebound+score. What we can do is build a team that has a shot at the title when healthy, and then see what opportunities come about in the process which bring us closer to your optimal solution. This is, IMO, exactly what Morey has done. We are in a position to snatch an unhappy player here or there. We have upgraded our athleticism from Juwan+Hayes to Scola+Landry. Right now, we have to aim to improve (first at PG, then backup swingman and C) with the MLE, Bobby Jackson's contract, draft picks, and little fillers here and there (Francis, Head, Brooks, Hayes, etc). I think it's entirely possible that we improve two rotation spots this summer, and IMO we will be in a posiion to capitalize. What I would really like is for the Pistons to flop, Dumars to do what he usually does (move players before expected) and get our hands on Chauncey maybe in a 3-way (BobbyJaxx, Aaron Brooks, 1st and 2nd round pick).
feel bad? he's making 6 figures playing with a ball. Sure he's playing like he should get paid more but $427,000 does sound a whole lot better than $42,700 a year. Nobody should ever feel bad, especially us regular folks, about how much money athletes make. I'd kill to make NBA bench money!
In fairness, since all we have to offer is the MLE, if we signed any of those guys it'd be an INCREDIBLE moneyball move.
Actually, Landry is very lucky he was drafted in the second round. Yes his first year deal stunk, but I expect he will make a lot more next year then if he was the last pick of the first round. Landry would be locked in at the guaranteed money of the last first round pick. Instead he got a crappy deal this year but is a RFA next year and should get at least a multi year deal at 3 million per. I cant imagine the Rox not giving him as much if not more then what Hayes gets. That is far more then what the last first round pick gets and they cant get big money until at least year five when the team no longer controls their contract option. Good for him too, cuz he had to earn it with his play cuz nothing is guaranteed to second rounders.
I dont see how you can compare the Suns to what this team could be. You dont point out that the reason the Suns work is because of Steve Nash. Do you really think anyone on this roster can do for us what Nash does for them? As for the Utah loss, people react like we had no shot in that series and were blown away. Do you think Utah would be abandoning their style of play if Houston had held on to a five point lead late in the fourth quarter at home of game 7. A couple of rebounds and everything would be different. With your established two stars with an injury track record, that is not true at the time. Yao played over 80 games his first three years. He missed time with the toe during year four. It was after this year that the trade happened. So it wasnt like at the time of the draft, Yao had a major history of injuries. The broken leg and stress fracture came after Battier was added on. Also, you mention the team didnt go after Roy. Clearly he was their main target, and the Boston deal for Telfair and of course what the Blazers did derailed that. Dont blame the Rox for not landing Roy. They did what they could and when that failed went after the player they felt would help the most. I dont get how you give no credit to Morey. Sure the Spurs were going to dump Scola. But I guarantee they didnt expect to send him to an instate rival. Ferry didnt get it done. Morey did. As for Landry, isnt a scout supposed to tell you about a player. It is still up to Morey to convince Les to pony up the cash to buy a pick and go get him. Giving Morey no credit for getting Landry is like giving CD no credit for drafting Yao. That being said you deserve your right to your opinion. I just think you make the argument too one sided. Do I think more athletic players would help. Absolutely. Do I think trading away Battier, Tmac, Scola and Hayes type players to bring in a bunch of athletes makes this team better. Absolutely not.
i agree with your argument against signing jamison...and that may very well be the same reason the rockets won't be too interested. however, as you put it... a PF that can spread the floor and rebound... he's averaging 20-10. he's a career 20-8. he's coming off of a big contract and probably willing to take the MLE for a chance to win. with landry being a restricted FA, i could see a S&T being worked out. landry gets a great opportunity to play a lot of minutes in washington and steve will pick up his option to play close to family. those contracts should equal jamison's MLE deal. i love landry, but his potential is equal to jamisons production this year, so why not cash in on his potential? won't happen, i know, but i can hope. i can also hope for jackson/head for mike miller to backup tmac and shane. what an off-season that would be.
