[ESPN] Hollinger: Josh Smith can break Dream's record

To say no one playing today has any chance whatsoever is naive and just plain stupid. No one knows what the future holds.

 

Logic, history and some knowledge of the game says it is so unlikely that it was pointless for someone to even suggest it of such a young player.

 

I liked that article.

And people, he's not saying he will break it, he's just saying he has a chance using his formula.

The most amazing thing to me in that article are Stockton's records. That guy was amazing. Nash isn't even halfway to breaking his assist record. And yes, Wilt/Moses have amazing records too but I never watched them play.

 

Who said it wasn't unlikely???? And you may not like looking way into the future and see the chances someone has at certain records but that doesn't make it pointless. Some of us like it.

 

I said it was so unlikely it wasn't worth mentioning not just unlikely.

I like looking into the future too but it is stupid to start talking about a 22 year old kid breaking a record that is so far away. It is *possible* but it is also possible that Kobe could finish his career with 60 or 70 thousand points if he scored 81 every game for the rest of his career. It could have also been possible for Wade to win 15 Championships if he won one each year for the rest of his career after that first one.

 

A lot needs to happen right in Josh Smith's career for him to catch Dream's record. A 17.8% chance is a very low chance after all.

 

Its not like Josh Smith just came out in this year's draft. "Smoove" has a few years of service and numbers to suggest he "could" do it. Nothing outrageous about that at all. Career averages are stats that are more easily extrapolated than a single game performance or one good year.

If McGrady can score 13 in 35 seconds then he can score 70 in 10 minutes...thats what you're saying. You and we all know thats circumstantial and not a true indicator of expected performance

 

I think a lot of you guys missed it.

The author gave the guy a 17.8% chance...17.8%

Now, I don't know about you guys, but I don't put much stock in ANYTHING where the potential for success is just 17.8%

 

So you're saying something w/ a 17.8% chance has a 0% chance of being right? I'll take a wild guess that the Rockets odds of winning the championship in 94-95 were around there.

 

Actually, what I said was 17.8%...is...17.8%

 

Nah, i don't think he's going to have a long career. The way he plays, he's lucky if he can survive 8 seasons.

 

i guess i'm stupid.

if josh smith is the best shot hollinger gives at breaking the record and the only player he gives above a zero percent chance then i feel extremely confident that no one will do it. is that phrasing ok with you?

 

Records are made to be broken! Holders of Championships will be remembered for ever!