The Lakers and Spurs will pull away from the pack and emerge as the clear top two favorites. The conference can't stay bunched up in a knot the whole season. If the Rockets want to advance beyond the first round, it's important they stay at #6 or higher. Tony Parker is back and the Spurs will be primed for another run during the playoffs. If Andrew Bynum isn't ready to play until the playoffs start (as rumored by JVG today), the Spurs are clear favorites. If Bynum can ramp up to averaging a double-double by playoff time, the Lakers have a chance to take the Spurs down. The Hornets are sitting at #3 right now but they are not a Finals contender. They are soft, have poor depth and little experience. Outside the top two, the Jazz have the next best chance to make the Finals, albeit a slim one. Their home vs road record differential is insane. They have the best home record in the NBA but the 15th best road record. In the playoffs, their home bubble will burst. I love our Rockets but we ain't going to the Finals without Yao. With Yao, the western conference would be a three team race. The Suns look pretty bad now and I'm ready to write them off. Losing Marion's productivity, defense and athleticism for a player like Shaq that destroys their offensive continuity is something they won't recover from. The Mavs missed their chance the last two seasons. They weren't going to the Finals with or without the Jason Kidd trade. Unlike the Suns, I'll give the Mavs a slight chance to figure things out and gel at the right time. Jason Kidd doesn't look comfortable and confident and it's a questionable that Avery Johnson can trust any PG enough to relinquish control of their offense. But if he and Kidd get on the same page, the Mavs could definitely contend. Golden State is not a Finals contender. The Lakers have owned them for quite some time and the Spurs would demolish them in the first round. Small ball is fun to watch but it doesn't win championships. Webber adds nothing to their team. Denver needs to blow up their team and coaching staff over the summer. If they luck out and make the playoffs, they will be plastered by the Lakers or Spurs. It's ironic but I think the East is more unpredictable than the West. The East is a three team race with the Celts/Pistons/Cavs while I think the West is down to two teams. I have no idea how seeds 3 to 8 will end up. The keys will be avoiding the Lakers or Spurs in the first round. Tell me why my outlook is wrong. Fire away guys.
Lakers and Spurs, huh? Really getting out on that limb. I agree with your take. But if I had to pick a third team right now, it would be the Mavs. Having Jason Kidd with Nowitzki, Terry, and Josh Howard as scoring options looks pretty good to me. I underestimated the impact Kidd's court vision would have on their offense.
I agree with most of your assessments. However, Golden State isn't a small ball team - they are the NBA's version of a streetball team. Nelle throws out the ball and tells them to play. I love to watch it, but daring, brash basketball without defense or an interior presence can only carry you so far.
I have to disagree with you on the East, I don't think it's a three horse race, I think it's between Boston, Detriot, Orlando and Cleveland. I don't think you can write off Orlando because they have beaten both Boston and Detriot this regular season and have currently the best active center in the league.
I dont like Warriors and Nuggets. They are not good teams. If I have to pick, I want to see the warriors to miss the playoff, because I am disgusted with their hitting jack pot playing style and their loser fans. But likely, Denver will miss the playoff, and a Warrior Lakers match up will be fun to watch. The warriors is like a "Can you get lukier than me" team.
With about 25 games or so left, why do you think the Lakers/Spurs will pull away from the Western Confrence, if you have not noticed...usually the top 2 teams have atlest a 7 game spread on the rest of the teams...this season say ummm 1 or 2 games from evereyone else and like 5 games from being out the picture. Your claim is without evidence. Injuries to Kobe and/or Duncan will send them lower in the seedings. however, I do agree that the Rockets need to get a little higher and take on a team like NOH or UTH to take advantage of softness, but I will never underestimate a team in the playoffs
The East is a two-man race: Detroit and Boston have talent and depth head-and-shoulders above everyone else. In the West I think that the Hornets and Lakers will eventually fizzle, and the Spurs will prove once again why they're so good.
So it's about time I should follow suit and starting writing the Spurs off because they're too old and all that. Oh wait, what is this? A 9 game winning streak? No way! Tied for best in the West? Ridiculous.
Re-read the OP. It's a prediction of what is going to happen. A couple of weeks ago, I mentioned in another thread that clear favorites and underdogs would emerge in the Western Conference. This thread lays it out. What do you think the standings will look like at the end and who do you think is most likely to make the Finals from the West? Do you see any patterns developing?
I like the playoffs this season, where its pretty even. My pick for the Finals will be youth vs experience. East- Cavs or Celts West-lakers or spurs. I like to see spurs vs celts, where we could see 10 30yr old guys playing at the same time. Or Cavs vs Lakers, to see whos the best player of the game, Kobe or Lebron. Any how, unless injury happens, this 4 teams looks to be the best currently.
I think this is a very good analysis of the WC. I differ very slightly on a few points: Spurs are good but very fragile and starting to show their age. Not sure how they can do in a long, drawn-out series. However, they might be able to pull it off. Lakers are the class of the West. If they had a lesser coach, they wouldn't have gelled as well as they have after the Gasol trade. Dallas has a shot but it seems like they haven't come together like the Lakers did after aquiring Jason Kidd. Benching Kidd the other night in the final play was a big statement to the team. Bad move Avery. Phoenix- oh man. Bad move for an old Shaq. Maybe they can pull it together, but I doubt it. No more run-and-gun for the Suns, who used to be synonamous with that term. Denver- I don't think they need to 'blow up' their team, but AI and Mello was never going to work in the West without some size up front. If they can get Artest, it will level the playing field. And it seems like Karl isn't the coach he used to be. I agree completely with the Jazz, Warriors and Hornets comments. I think the real wild card here are our Rockets. We summarily dismissed by the league and the 'talking heads' (to coin Will's phrase). But our rookies are insanely good. I would take our two rookie Forwards over any of the 'top' rookies in the league. Heck, I wouldn't trade Scola for any of them, and -maybe- Landry for only Durant. Mutumbo has yet again found the fountain of youth and is killing on D inside. T-Mac isn't trying to carry the team...and he doesn't have to. The way we are playing with confidence and chemistry right now makes me proud and should make other teams scared. If we can keep this up the sky is the limit for us and we can make some noise in any 7-game series.
Dude, you need to post more often. Just wanted to say how much I enjoy your posts. Can't really argue with much except that I also think Orlando is a dark horse to watch. They need to blow it up. Front office specifically. I won't judge Bearup or Chapman, but Warkenstein was the GM of the "Jail Blazers" and he's now assembled the Nugs. I think it's safe to say that he's not doing a good job. Plus, from the sound of it, he was the only one that wanted to add Randolph to the team. Karl's gone one way or another. If the Nugs somehow make the playoffs and actually don't suck (not likely), Karl will "retire". If not, he's gone one way or another. As for Artest -- he was never a good solution for the team. I don't care what anyone says. I am hoping we deal Kleiza while his value is high though.
Spurs and Lakers in the West, and Celtics and Pistons in the East. Wild Cards: Dallas, Houston, Utah in the West and Cavs, Magic, and Raptors in the East.
Nice analysis AP3. I agreed with most everything you said but the comments about Avery not being able to trust Kidd stuck out the most. I think Avery took that team to the next level but he isn't the guy to get them over the hump and his inability to trust his players in crunch time is why. Who trades for a HOF PG only to sit him when the team has one shot to win the game? You need a guy to create so someone can get an open shot and you put arguably the best passer in the league on the bench? That move and the fact he changed his starting lineup last season when facing the #8 seed in the playoffs tell me it is time for Cuban to get himself a new coach.
A_3PO, I think you're generally right about thow the regualr season will pan out. LA and San Antonio are clearly playing at a high level and seem ready to put a little a little space in between themselves and the rest of ther contenders. However, I think the playoffs are gonna be a total crapshoot. The aforementioned teams will be the favorites to reach the WC Finals, but in reality, if I was betting, I'd take the field over that particular match-up. People are jumping off the Dallas and Phoenix bandwagons because they've struggled a little since their respective trades, but I think either team could easily make a Finals run. They both made moves with an eye towards the playoffs, not a quick fix. Phoenix's downfall over the last few years has been their lack of an interior presence, and Dallas has lacked leadership and a distributor. I think one or both of these teams is gonna figure it out and start looking a lot better come playoff time (and then people will jump back on their wagons). I love our Rockets and the way they're playing right now, but I think they're gonna struggle against an elite team in a 7-game series unless T-Mac plays out-of-his mind. T-Mac can be neutralized and they just don't have enough go-to guys down the stretch to win 3 series against great competition. A first round playoff victory is possible but I don't see them getting past SA or LA in Round 2. New Orleans has a nice, balanced team, but I think they fall into the same boat. In the East, the 2 best teams are Detroit and Boston, but the Lebrons are always a threat to screw things up. One last thing is that injuries, as we know all-too-well, will play a big role in sinking the hopes of any contender. As much as people are loving the Lakers right now, I'd be very worried about Kobe lasting through the end of the season and playoffs unscathed plus Bynum automatically returning to his early-season form after his injury. Bottom-line, the West is still wide-open, and it's gonna be fun ride as a basketball fan to see how it turns out.
