Hollinger: Under-the-Radar Storylines (Rockets & Carl Landry

Every time I hear his name, I always imagine it being attached to some sort of franchise\business. For example:

Carl Landry's Fried Chicken
Carl Landry's Boot Emporium
Carl Landry's House of Pies
Carl Landry's BBQ

 

Landry's Seafood... I don't think that is a coincidence.

 

Funny article.

Let's just hope Carl Landry! doesn't start getting even better (meaning 20-10 every night with a great per) than will be in trouble. Otherwise we should be okay getting Landry back.

As a show of respect I say the Rocket offer him Mid Lottery money and if he doesn't accept than let him test the waters knowing we will match whatever he is offered elsewhere. The thing to do then is let the other GM's know we are going to keep this kid and they bidding max MLE or anywhere close is just going to make us spend more money. So just remember this and we'll do the same for you sometime down the road. I think most GM's would do that. That's what almost happen last year to Amir Johnson and then someone flinched and offered him 3.5 per and Detroit ate it.

That should work as long as he doesn't turn into a 20 -10 guy and then all bets are off and some stupid GM is going to give him a 60 Mil contract.

 

Problem solved!! play Landry more than 10 mins a game and we cant be beat.

 

Wasn't Marquis Daniels in a similiar situation? He fluked his rookie year and then got a big contract? That might deter other teams.

 

If co-ROY came from the same team, it would make NBA history. How can a team be so lucky to get two young studs in the same year?

Yeah, Landry and Scola... it's illicit!

 

The Cavs actually had a team option on Boozer for the following season at around $600-700k but felt that they could garnet some goodwill from Boozer if they let him out of his contract and signed him long-term to a decent sized contract. So the Cavs actually RENOUNCED their team option on Boozer. When the Jazz made an absolutely tremendous contract offer, Boozer bolted for Salt Lake City. I believe that the "Gilbert Arenas Rule" did not apply to the Boozer situation, since the Cavs had actually had a team option that they renounced.

This is not the situation with Carl Landry. The Rockets have no team option, but they have the right to match ANY offer for Landry due to the "Gilbert Arenas Rule", which forces other teams to structure large contract offers so that the first year salary matches the MLE, enabling the player's current team to match using their own MLE.

The Rockets are NOT losing Landry unless Les Alexander is scared off by a possibly large luxury tax bill.

 

I wanna order one of those custom Rockets jerseys and have it read "Carl Landry!" Is that possible? To include the !- ?

 

Holy ****, I'm so jealous you thought of that first...!

 

Carl Landry, Aaron Brooks, Luis Scola and Gerald Green are the future of this team.

 

That article might have just cost the Rockets an extra 8 million for Landry's asking price, thanks Hollinger.

 

I believe you are misinformed. Landry will be a restricted free agent which means the Rockets can match any offer as long as they stick with the CBA provisions. Which means they can match any amount equal or less than the MLE, provided they don't use it on another player. But if a team under the cap decides to offer Landry 1 dollar more than the MLE and Landry accepts it. Again they would have to be under the cap more than the amount of the max 1st year salary of the MLE. Fortunately their are only a few teams that will be under the cap enough and I don't think will want Landry enough to spend that much. But crazier things have happened.

I would say the Rockets have 3 things on their side in keeping Landry.

1. He loves the Rockets already and wouldn't leave unless the money is just too good to pass up.

2. As good as he is he IMO is an undersized PF with little shotblocking capabilities. This will dissuade some GM's from risking big money on him as a starter.

3. Also as good as he has been playing he probably hasn't shown enough to garnish the max MLE type money which means we can match anybodies offer.

4. Chuck Hayes has a shoe deal!

Of course that goes all out of the water if he becomes a 20-10 guy. So adelman no matter how good he is playing limit his minutes when he is not needed.

 

Scola is as old as Yao and is definitely part of the now. Landry is definitely part of the Rockets future as well as being a piece now.

Green and Brooks could develop. Time will tell. I would say Brooks has the better chance at being a fringe starter/solid backup. Green could become a solid starter, but has a higher chance of being out of league within 4 years.

 

scola can still play two or three years. next season he will reach his peak. hard to say landry and green.

 

Not so. Salaries of restricted free agents with two years or less NBA experience have caps which would prevent a player from being taken in this manner under the Gilbert Arenas Rule. The Gilbert Arenas Rule still has some wiggle room, but not enough wiggle room to let a team take Landry while the Rockets hold their MLE.

http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#37

 

I guess I consider the current window with Yao and McGrady to be the now. I don't expect TMac to last at a high level after the next three years. Scola's best play should be the next three years.

 

So you see, we are going to have to pony up some majjor money for him. He's probably gonna turn into a 20-10 guy.

 

Thanks for the backup, Joe Joe. I have posted that same link in a bunch of other threads and just decided not to post it this time.

In case some people are too lazy to click on the link, here it is:

[QUOTE/]37. What is the "Gilbert Arenas" provision?

With the previous CBA it was sometimes possible to sign restricted free agents to offer sheets their original teams couldn't match. This happened when a player was an Early Bird or Non-Bird free agent (see question number 19) and the team didn't have enough cap room to match a sufficiently large offer. For example, Gilbert Arenas was Golden State's second round draft pick in 2001, and became an Early Bird free agent in 2003. Golden State therefore could only match an offer sheet (or sign Arenas themselves) for up to the average salary (see question number 24), which was about $4.9 million. Washington signed Arenas to an offer sheet with a starting salary of about $8.5 million, which Golden State was powerless to match.

This loophole was addressed in the current CBA (although not closed completely -- see below). Teams are now limited in the salary they can offer in an offer sheet to a restricted free agent with one or two years in the league. The first-year salary in the offer sheet cannot be greater than the average salary (see question number 24). Limiting the first year salary in this way guarantees that the player's original team will be able to match the offer sheet by using the Early Bird exception (if applicable -- see question number 19), or Mid-Level exception (provided they haven't used it already).

The second year salary in such an offer sheet is limited to the standard 8% raise. The third year salary can jump considerably -- it is allowed to be as high as it would have been had the first year salary not been limited by this rule to the average salary. Raises (and decreases) after the third season are limited to 6.9% of the salary in the third season. The offer sheet can only contain the large jump in the third season if it provides the maximum salary allowed in the first two seasons. In addition, the offer must be guaranteed and cannot contain bonuses of any kind.

If the raise in the third season exceeds the standard raise (8% of the salary in the first season of the contract), then they place an additional restriction on the team. In order to determine the size of the offer the team can make, they don't fit just the first year salary under the cap. Instead, they must fit the average salary in the entire contract under the cap. So a team $8 million under the cap is limited to offering a total of $24 million over three years, $32 million over four years, or $40 million over five years. If the offer sheet does not contain a third-season raise larger than 8% of the first-season salary, then they only have to fit the first year salary under the cap.

Putting this all together, if a team is $11 million under the cap, wants to submit a five year offer sheet, and wants to provide a large raise in the third season, they can offer a total of $55 million. If the average salary is $5 million, then the second year salary will be $5.4 million (8% raise). This leaves $44.6 million to be distributed over the final three seasons. With 6.9% raises in years four and five, the entire contract looks like this:

Season
Salary
Notes

1
$5.0 million
Average salary amount

2
$5.4 million
8% raise over season 1

3
$13.907 million
This is the amount that yields $44.6 million over the
final three seasons with 6.9% raises*

4
$14.867 million
Raise is 6.9% of season 3 salary

5
$15.826 million
Raise is 6.9% of season 3 salary

Total
$55 million
Average is $11 million, which equals the team's cap room


* If you want to know how I got that exact amount, (for a five year offer) you solve for (5R - 2.08A) / 3.207. R is the room the team has under the cap. A is the average salary amount (e.g., $5 million). The 2.08 represents the salary in the first two seasons (100% of the average, plus 108% of the average). The 3.207 represents the salary in the last three seasons, using 6.9% raises: 1.0 + 1.069 + 1.138 = 3.207. Similarly, for a four year offer you would solve for (4R - 2.08A) / 2.069.

For the team making this offer, this contract would count for $11.0 million (i.e., the average salary in the contract) of team salary in each of the five seasons if they sign the player. If the player's prior team matches the offer and keeps the player, then the actual salary in each season counts as team salary. The player's original team is allowed to use any available exception (e.g., the Mid-Level or the Early-Bird) to match the offer.

Since a team must fit the average salary from the entire contract under the cap in order to offer the large third-season raise, a team must have some amount of cap room above the average salary amount in order to effectively utilize this provision. For example, suppose the average salary amount is $5 million, and a team with $5.1 million of cap room wants to provide a five year offer sheet. If they want to offer a larger-than-normal third-year raise, then their cap room will be determined by the contract's average salary, so the total contract must pay $25.5 million or less. If they offer $5 million and $5.4 million in the first two seasons, then that leaves just $15.1 million for the final three seasons -- so there must be a decrease in salary in the final three seasons. A team in this situation is better off providing the standard 8% raise in the third season, which does not trigger the cap room requirement based on averaging. In this example, a five year offer starting at $5 million with 8% raises would total $29.0 million.

As I said above, the loophole was addressed with this rule, but not closed completely. This is because this provision is primarily intended to protect teams from losing their successful second round picks, who are Early-Bird free agents after two years. There are several situations where a team still might be unable to match an offer sheet:

If the player is a Non-Bird free agent and the team already used their Mid-Level exception to sign another player.


If the player is a Non-Bird or Early Bird free agent with three years in the league (this rule applies only to players with one or two years in the league).


If a team has two Non-Bird free agents with one or two years in the league. They can use the Mid-Level exception to keep one of them, but would lose the other.

This provision also ensures that second round picks can't cash in with a maximum salary sooner than first round picks can.
[/QUOTE]

 

Does anybody when Hollinger rated Carl Landry in his statistical analysis with 335.3 rating?


The 30th pick was Spencer Hawes with a score of 433.9, about a 100 ptsw higher than Landry. I Hollinger's draft projections were completely off base about Brooks and Landry?

http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?p=2997340#post2997340

 

As exciting as it is watching Landry, I know I'm going to be nervous as hell as soon as the season ends. I wont be able to shake that funk until he has signed a contract with the rox.