<blockquote> Yao's injury shouldn't cripple Rockets' playoff hopes By John Hollinger ESPN Insider Obviously, the loss of Yao Ming for the season is terrible news for the Houston Rockets, not to mention a slap to the egos of those of us who picked them to win the title. But the more immediate question today is: How will they fare without Yao? Can they hang on and still make the playoffs? The first instinct is to say no. It's a nine-team battle for the West's eight playoff spots, and with the conference being such a powerhouse it seems as though Houston is the obvious team to fall out of the race. But when we go through the math of the Rockets' schedule, a different conclusion emerges. Houston is 36-20 this season, with 26 games left to play. According to the Hollinger playoff odds, it will take 48 wins to make it to the postseason in the Western Conference. Thus, the Rockets need to go only 12-14 the rest of the way to have a good shot at qualifying for the playoffs. Given that they've been roughly a .500 team over the years when Yao doesn't play (28-34, to be exact) and that his teammates were playing extremely well at the time of the injury, 12-14 doesn't seem that daunting a task. That's especially true when you consider the remaining cupcakes on their slate. The Rockets have nine home games left against losing teams (Washington, Memphis, Indiana, New Jersey, Charlotte, Sacramento, Minnesota, Seattle and the Clippers). At a minimum, one would think they'll take seven of these. A few of the road games don't seem so daunting either: Seattle, the Clippers, Sacramento and Atlanta, for instance. Suppose they split those four. That's 9-4 out of those 13 games -- easily attainable provided T-Mac doesn't join Yao on the sidelines. If so, that means Houston needs to go only 3-12 in the other 15 games, five of which are at home. If they really want to help their odds, three of those games will be particularly meaningful. Houston still plays Golden State once and Denver twice. Wins in those games would help them gain ground overall, push down their competitors and perhaps win an extra tiebreaker or two. As of now, the Rockets are 1-1 against Denver, with two matchups to go -- and 1-2 versus Golden State, with one game to go. So, considering their schedule, I suspect they'll pull out a No. 7 or No. 8 seed. Furthermore, the Rockets have quality depth, unlike in some previous seasons. To fill in for Yao, there's Dikembe Mutombo, who fared well while Yao was out a year ago. Additionally, many of Yao's minutes will go to rookie Carl Landry who, unbelievably, leads the team in PER -- he averages 19.1 points and 12.8 rebounds per 40 minutes and is shooting 61.6 percent. I'm not saying he'll keep up such a prolific rate, but clearly he's not chopped liver. We should see Houston play small more often, with Shane Battier as a power forward and Landry, Luis Scola or Chuck Hayes as a center. Last week's trade for Bobby Jackson lets the Rockets do this more effectively because they have an additional creator in the backcourt. One way or another, I think they'll manage. So if you're a Denver or Golden State fan and think this injury has brought you a reprieve from the lottery, you might want to double-check that assumption. With a three-game lead and less than two months to play, Houston should be a playoff team, even without Yao.</blockquote> http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insi...?columnist=hollinger_john&page=Rockets-080226
Agreed. But much more of this burden lies on Mutombo than most think. And the decision for Adelman to actually play Mutombo. If we go small ball we lose, our small lineup is simply too weak and would take too drastic an offensive change in too short a time.
We have much better depth this year. We should still make the playoffs. It sure would be better if they were saying this is a 2 month injury instead of a 4 month injury though. I hope a 2nd opinion might change the outlook enough to think there's a chance he could come back during the playoffs.
Agree. But is to make the playoff our ultimate goal for the season? Winning it all is next to impossible now. I say play loose, play Tmac less, develop young guys, give Green time. Dont sign Barry. Next season is as bright as there can be.
I know we don't stand a snow ball's chance in hell of going far in the playoffs but let's make the playoffs first and then worry. Once you're in anything can happen. GS last season, our very own Rockets team on the way to their second title showed that. Hell, we might draw the Lakers or Spurs in the first round only to see Kobe or Duncan go down with an injury. You never know. One game at a time.
I don't know if making the playoffs will actually benefit us anymore, without yao there's a little chance we will advance into the 2nd round and everyone will talk about how t-mac cannot get out of the 1st round to me, that is unfair to my man t-mac. because look the line up we have now without yao, I can't think of anyone that can make us advance even kb.
Three reasons Rockets can still make the playoffs: 1. The remaining schedules are soft enough for Rockets to possibly get 50 wins. 2. The Rockets have quality subs to play Yao's minutes in Scola, Landry, Dikembe and Chuck. 3. The two teams chasing the Rockets: Denver and Golden State, have their own weaknesses. Guys on these teams are pretty flaky, and chances are one of the will implode under pressure.
After the first game i think more game has to flow through Scola and Landry, we need to give them as much game as we can, because we need to check if one of both is able to command a double team (Scola was double teammed against San Antonio the night he went 11-11), a big able to sometimes command a double team will be the first step in order to mask Yao miss.
I read this on ESPN yesterday. Isn't it amazing that some analyst actually looked at us, who's chasing us, and our remaining schedule and then came to a thought out conclusion instead of simply going on a superficial initial reaction? I'm shocked.
We can make the PO easily. Matching vise it's not that bad, most teams's C aint real low post threat anyway, except for the Lakers. Everybody talking about how tough our schedule gonna be in March, but the fact is we have a 2nd or 3rd easiest remaining shedule in the the west, next to the Lakers/Spurs. N.O is going to fall, it happened to them before, if we can hold our ground, we will get pass them, and not be facing Lakers or Spurs, then we 're in it for a good fight against Jazz, or Suns/Mavs. I think it'd be a good idea to sign a vet C, ala Magloire(has the Mavs signed him yet?), it looks Barry is not coming through anyway, an offensive capable big man gonna help us spreading the floor. But boy, its gonna be tough... it's time Tmac show what hes made of.
Yes, yes, yes. When you factor in all the available information, it seems pretty reasonable. If we were in 9th place now, or this were much earlier in the season, I would doubt it. But at this point we're close enough to the finish line and just need to hold up for those last few laps. The only way we don't is if we start losing to teams we're 'supposed to beat' or Denver plays more defense and starts playing much better then they are now. I believe we have one week where we play all top 4 Western teams...so we have to make sure we take care of business before then.
