oh...and there is also a discounted value thing... A's value might be 80for yr 1 80 for yr 2 80 for yr 3 75 for yr 4 B's value might be 70 for yr 1 70 for yr 2 85 for yr 3 95 for yr 4 but if you look at your roster and realize that your best chance for a title is in yr 1 and yr 2, then you go for player A.
Ironically, if you put it this way, the trade made a lot of sense for the Rockets. After all, I'd be fine with Battier over the likes of Diop, Chris Wilcox, Araujo, Ford(incorporating his injuries), and Frye. And to make it clear, these were the #8 picks each year since Battier entered the league, minus Rudy Gay of course.
Not a fair comparison. Neither of those players had #1 pick potential. Rudy Gay had arguably the highest ceiling of any player in that draft.
Sooooo... you were just kidding all those times you said one should NEVER trade the #8 pick in ANY draft for Battier?
I still stand by my statement that Battier, or a role player like him, shouldn't be able to fetch a top #8...hell, lotto pick in any draft unless the team acquiring that player is close to a title.
Uh-huh. Still seems to me like you contradicted yourself responding to meh's post. And as meh's post points out, history disagrees with you. Which is my point in its entirety, really. And I love how you just pigeonhole Battier as a "role player" and leave it at that. Being a "role player" doesn't automatically mean you have no value. Dennis Rodman was a role player. Ben Wallace was/is a role player. No, Battier doesn't quite have the impact those two did, but you should see my point. Battier was a #6 pick himself, and some analysts even said he should go #1, because he was such a sure thing. No one ever believed he was going to be an alpha-dog, but he's still valuable. More valuable than Wilcox, Diop, Ford, Araujo, Frye...
Rudy Gay was also part of what was widely considered(not in hindsight, but at the time) the worst draft in ages. Having #1 talent in that draft meant crap. Remember that Noah was considered almost a sure-fire #1 had he came out early? And he was drafted in 07... #9! I don't blame you for believing in the hype. Heck, I was overanalyzing that draft too because the Rockets had such a high pick. But draft picks are ALWAYS overhyped. My favorite has to be the "NBA comparison" thing, where they compare a prospect to a current NBA player. I swear based on that you'd think most of the picks would turn out to be all-stars.
No, I don’t think I have. Meh basically said “Surely Battier is worth the #8 pick, look at all these players (basically guys that didn’t live up to their potential) that went #8 in the past few years”. Using that same logic, you could say Battier is worth a top 3 pick by picking out busts picked in that range, right? And again, none of those players that he mentioned could be argued as the highest potential player in the draft. The situations are not comparable. Historically speaking, has there ever been a player like Battier exchanged for a top 8 pick by a team not close to a title? Historically speaking, Gay is arguably better than Battier in his 2nd year and is improving, while Battier is getting older and we still aren’t close to a title…so I don’t see how anyone can say we made the right move. Role players have value, but that value usually isn’t worth a top 10 lotto pick, especially when you aren’t elite at anything. I can see a team that’s close who is truly in win-now mode but we weren’t/aren’t close. Rodman is arguably the best rebounder ever and a elite defender. He would be in the HOF if not for his off the court antics. Wallace was an elite defender and rebounder. But is he more valuable than Rudy Gay is the question? And Battier went #6 based on potential. Like these other players that you are mentioning, if teams could look at the future and see his production no way does he go #6.
The top of the draft was considered to be very strong. Folks were very high on Bargnani, Aldridge, Morrison, Thomas, Roy, Gaye and arguably Foye.
Not picking Rudy Gay in the draft was the last of Carroll Dawson's boneheaded moves as the GM. I can only imagine what Daryl Morey might have done with that draft class.
Ok, I looked at all of the draft day trades going back to 1985. I haven’t included 2003 or 2004 because I couldn’t find a full list of those trades. This link covers 1985-99 and I had to search for the others (01, 02, 05-present). I’ve included what are, IMO, trades including current players for picks. I really didn’t look at trades that involved a lot of players since the pro-trade crowd seems to think Swift was just a throw in anyway. I also didn’t include trades where the core of the trade was one players draft right’s being swapped for another players draft rights (i.e. the Penny for Webber trade). I wanted to see what players already in the league have nabbed in previous drafts (i.e. Battier nabbing a top 8 pick). http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/basketball/nba/2000/nba_draft/news/2000/05/29/draftday_trades/ 2007 • The Warriors traded Jason Richardson and pick #36 to the Bobcats for Brandon Wright (#8) THIS IS IN THE FOLLOWING DRAFT. THEY GOT A BETTER PLAYER, AND ANOTHER PICK FOR WHAT YOU CAN ARGUE IS A WORSE PROSPECT!!!! 2005 • Cleveland traded F Jiri Welsch to the Milwaukee Bucks for a 2006 second-round draft pick. 2001 • The Orlando Magic traded C Michael Doleac to the Cleveland Cavaliers for C Brendan Haywood (#20). 1999 • The Seattle SuperSonics traded the draft rights to Corey Maggette (#13) and the contracts of Billy Owens, Dale Ellis and Don MacLean to Orlando in exchange for Horace Grant and two future second-round draft picks. 1998 • Dallas traded Martin Muursepp, Bubba Wells and the rights to Pat Garrity (#19) and a 1999 first-round draft selection to Phoenix for Steve Nash. • The L.A. Lakers traded Nick Van Exel to Denver for Tony Battie and the rights to Tyronn Lue (#23). • San Antonio traded Carl Herrera and the rights to Felipe Lopez (#24) to Vancouver for Antonio Daniels. 1997 • Milwaukee traded Johnny Newman, Joe Wolf and the rights to Danny Fortson (#10) to Denver for Ervin Johnson. 1991 • Draft rights traded by Atlanta to Denver for Blair Rasmussen. Draft rights traded by Denver to Milwaukee for draft rights to Kevin Brooks, a 1994 second-round draft choice and other considerations. I can’t tell if Blair or others were current players so I just included this one 1988 • Draft rights traded with a 1989 first-round draft choice by Seattle to Los Angeles Clippers for Michael Cage. Looking back at previous drafts, I don’t see how anyone can say that Battier alone is worth a top 8 pick in the draft. Maybe you can find another example in the 03 or 04 drafts, but it looks like we got raped in that deal. And again, we were not close to a title and you can argue that Gay is better in his 2nd season (yes I know we weren’t looking at Gay but that is idiotic too).
He is inconsistant and not nearly as good as advertised! I would rather have been developing Rudy Gay. PS Sometimes Shane plays really great!
Because you simply did not know how Gay will turn out. you don't draft only for the potential, you draft for potential + the possibility that the player will fulfill his potential !! For player who has motivation issues, the chances for them to suddenly wake up after being drafted is LOW....VERY LOW...... How much potential does Stromile Swift have? how much can he deliver? How much potential does David Lee have? but the dude delivers 100% of his potential every night. Gay is high risk/high return stock, so you have to value him on a RISK ADJUSTED basis. Just because you won the lottery, doesn't mean you made the smart bet when the odds were against you.
Ice-House = Rudy Gay and he's mad for being the only decent player on the team now! He wished, hoped and prayed he would be playing with TMAC!!!! OK, I was kidding. This was a decent trade for a known quantity. Sometimes it works sometimes it doesn't. If you inject "Eddie Griffin" into the 06 draft and the Rockets took him and you knew you could have had Battier, what would you think of managment then? Rockets got buned badly by the Eddie Griffin trade and would be extremely afraid of anyone with any signs of a problem. Also, the coach doesn't play Rookies, (Head doesn't count due to injuries) Did you want TMAC to be injured? Gay couldn't play Yao's position last year!!!! It's incredible the amount of highsight people are eating. Man, if the Rockets got that deal back then they would have had MJ and Haween on the same team, That would have been a string of championships! See my point.
stq, You don't take the safe money if your goal is to be #1 and win an NBA championship. Yes, you can take the solid known quantity (Battier) with the higher estimated return, but if you know that is almost certainly not going to push you to the top, you have to take the gamble on the prospect. The goal should not be to increase the chances of being a very good team. The goal is greatness, which is so hard to achieve, and if that means playing it risky, so be it. That is why other teams overpay for potential. Well, except in Memphis' case. Rudy's athletic talent was CLEARLY visible, all we had to do was roll the dice.
I agree that you have to roll the dice at some point, which we did, we rolled the dice on Bonzi Wells 2 years ago, and on S.Francis/M.James this year....... it just didn't work out... I'd much prefer the way we rolled our dice, you make multiple small bets when odds are favorite, eventually one of them will pay off.....
Agreed- 1) Should have drafted Richard Jefferson 2) Should have drafted Rashard Lewis in 2nd Round Fresh as ever!!!
