http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/bk/bkn/5449784.html Rockets still prefer a slow paced game, it seems.
Flawed analysis... total possessions per game and possession differential should be included, not just the team's own possessions per game.
Very Flawed I would say especially since this ROckets team has only in the last 8 to 10 games has truly run Adleman's offense. And even then it still is a work in progress. Before that many of their games were the Yao and TMac show with only small glimpses of Adelman's Offense. Redo the analysis for the last 10 games and I believe you will find an exact contradiction to the above data. Which means you can throw it out and it is stupid to even consider it after watching the rockets as of late.
Possession differential will be approximately 0, because possessions alternate between opposing teams.
Not true...the formula used to calculate "possessions" was FGA + mult*FTA. FGA definitely doesn't alternate between opposing teams.
You got it. In last 9 games which we played without McGrady, the Rockets got approx. 94.1 possessions per 48 minutes. In first 28 games, the pace was 93.7 per 48 minutes. So, there's hardly any difference. Furthermore, in the 7 wins over the last 9 games, we only eclipsed that 93.7 mark just twice -- against the Magic (~95) and Grizzlies (~94). In both losses, we also exceed that mark -- against GS it was ~105, and against Boston it was ~94. Summarizing, in the last 9 games, the pace was was 92.6 in the wins, and 99.3 in the losses. So this last stretch of games does indeed appear to follow the same pattern described in the article.
Read it again. It's FGA + .475*FTA + TO - ORB . You will find that if you actually calculated this for a team and their opponents over a significant stretch of games, it will add up to almost exactly the same number.
What I wanted was a game-by-game analysis. Not an average. The problem with the article is that it's taking an arbitrary average and assuming correlation. Not doing a statistical analysis and finding a correlation.
I don't really follow. Possessions, by definition, alternate. This notion of "possession differential" has almost no effect on the game, because possessions for both team will essentially be the same. If you really wanted to go through it and count each team's possession exactly, I believe there would be very little connection between which team had more possessions (the difference won't be more than a few) and which team wins. What matters in winning is how you use your possessions (offensive efficiency), and how you defend against the other team's possessions (defensive efficiency). Pace (possession per minute) can impact this. That's what the article is arguing. And they are correct. The Rockets continue to be one of the slower paced teams in the league. I would expect that we're still near the bottom in fast break points as well.
Exactly. Taking shots early in the shot clock is obviously not emphasized in this offense. Instead the key word over the last few games has been patience. When the Rockets don't get the shot they want they pass the ball around/cut without the ball to create open shots. Obviously that's going to lead to fewer possessions per game, not more. I think the real hallmarks of the Adelman offense are: 1) Balanced scoring. A good game is going to have four or five guys in double figures, maybe more. I think Fran Blinebury over at the Chronicle had some sarcastic post in his game blog during the Minnesota win about going away to cover the bowl games and coming back to find a real basketball team. His justification? None of the starters had less than 4 points or more than 7. That's balance. 2) Offensive productivity. The Rockets should be getting close to 100 points a game, 90 at least. That alone stands in marked contrast to JvG who thought 80 odd points a game was perfectly fine. 3) Points in the paint. I seem to recall one of the play by play guys saying that Adelman's offense relied on easy layups under the basket. It looks to me like the Rockets have been scoring more points on fewer possessions (in their wins) than under JvG during this last stretch. Sounds good to me.
Yeah the stats may support that but it is not an absolute. It doesn't take into consideration how good your d is at extending the opponents possessions which limits yours and also subtracting OBR's from a team that is good at it seems to skew the analysis negatively. Also Tmac driving down and jacking up shots may sway the numbers last year, but it still doesn't change the fact the offense looked much slower under normal operation. What I see now is more movement and less one dimensional play. A higher % people or in double figures with TMac out. The Rockets have averaged over 100 pts per game in this current winning streak. Their fastbreak points have gone on the rise during that stetch as well. And it is obvious to me they are more deliberate in executing an offense than last year. They still goto Yao and that part will always slow the pace... it isn't just TMAc trying to create on his own and if nothing is there than post up Yao. That may or may not show up in the stats but it is pretty obvious to my eyes the Rockets offense is flowing better when they are executing properly. And it is still a work in progress and when they are not running the offense so well they definitely look slower.
Bingo we have a winner! The Rockets clearly looking for higher percentage shots and it shows in the shooting percentage. But the pace isn't slower for it. You don't see ISO's and Yao pounding the ball as much. But clearly if Yao isn't open he is quicker to pass out and Yao and the team passes more and assists are up. Also they are looking for better shots but Adelman is still having to yell at Luther and others to not pass up open shots. SO they are not executing the offense completely to Adelmans taste and if they did they pace would pick up even more. So I suspect you will see increases in the pace as they get better at executing and learn never to pass up on a high percentage shot unless someone is open with a higher percentage shot.
exactly, the only way you could have a differential would be if a team held te ball for the last shot, and even then, the differential would be 2, at most, since the other team gets the ball first in at least two quarters.
In most games, 5% FG decide the result. Fast pace teams run the game as quick as possible because they could shred off the opponents' defense by fast pace and dribble off opponents' stamina without compromising too much of their own FG. Rockets prefer slow pace because they have a slow pace center Yao who provide the highest FG in the team, that's common in most teams with dominating centers such as Spurs, Hornets. Another reason for that slow pace teams do better because they do better team effort or say balanced offense, you can't defeat all the teams just by one or two players. Why good teams crush opponents in 3rd quarter? One important reason is that their balanced offense crush the best players in opponent's team.
