Zogby's 4-day tracking poll also showed a 4% point bump between yesterday and today. So in dropping Dec 31 and adding Jan 4, Obama gained 4% - if he makes a similar gain tomorrow, then that's a pretty impressive bounce and would indicate he's gained about 10-12% since Dec 31st.
Another one The new American Research Group poll gives Barack Obama a 12-point lead over Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire. Here are the numbers, compared to their last pre-Iowa tracking poll: Like today's Rasmussen poll, which shows similar numbers, this poll was conducted entirely after the Iowa Caucus results were known. The margin of error is ±4%, giving Obama a lead outside the margin. \http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/nhdem8-716.html
Now there is no denying Hillary is in deep trouble. This poll was conducted on Saturday and this morning. If you believe in momentum, by Tuesday, it's quite likely she loses by 10%, maybe even more. Her NH "firewall" is burning down. http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/01/06/poll-obama-jumps-ahead-of-clinton-in-new-hampshire/ January 6, 2008 Poll: Obama jumps ahead of Clinton in New Hampshire Posted: 05:49 PM ET A new CNN/WMUR poll shows Obama has a 10 point lead over Clinton. MANCHESTER, New Hampshire (CNN) — With two days to go until the New Hampshire primary, a new CNN/WMUR poll out Sunday afternoon suggests that Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois has opened up a double digit advantage over New York Sen. Hillary Clinton in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination. In the survey, conducted by the University of New Hampshire on Saturday and early Sunday, 39 percent of likely Granite State Democratic primary voters back Obama as the party’s nominee — that’s ten points ahead of Clinton’s 29 percent. Obama is up six points and Clinton down four points from our survey conducted on Friday and early Saturday. Former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina is at 16 percent in the new survey, down four points from Saturday. Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico is in fourth place, with the support of 7 percent of likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters, with Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio at 2 percent. Obama won last Thursday’s Iowa Democratic caucuses, eight points ahead of Edwards, who slightly edged out Clinton for second place. “The poll strongly suggests an Obama surge in New Hampshire. Obama’s gaining about three points a day, at the expense of both Clinton and Edwards. Obama’s lead has now hit double digits (10 points) going into the home stretch. It’s ‘the Big Mo’!” says CNN Senior Political Analyst Bill Schneider. "The Iowa caucus results have convinced growing numbers of Granite State voters that Obama can really go all the way. In December, 45 percent thought Clinton had the best chance of beating the GOP nominee. But in Saturday's poll Clinton and Obama were tied on that measure and now Obama has a 42 percent to 31 percent edge over Clinton on electability," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. The poll suggests that Sen. John McCain of Arizona remains the front runner in the battle for the GOP nomination in New Hampshire. Thirty-two percent of likely Granite State Republican primary voters are backing McCain, with 26 percent supporting former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. Both candidates are down one point from Saturday’s CNN/WMUR poll. The shakeup on the Republican side is for third place. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, at 14 percent, now has slightly more support than former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, at 11 percent. In Saturday’s poll, Giuliani had 14 percent and Huckabee had 11 percent. Even though he was vastly outspent by Romney, Huckabee won Iowa’s Republican caucuses, with Romney coming in second. “Huckabee has switched places with Rudy Giuliani. Huckabee’s got "the Little Mo’’ coming out of Iowa,” says Schneider. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas is in fifth place at 10 percent in the poll, with Rep. Duncan Hunter of California and former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee both at 1 percent. For the CNN/WMUR survey, 341 New Hampshire residents likely to vote in the Democratic primary and 268 Granite State residents likely to vote in the Republican primary were interviewed. The poll's sampling error is plus or minus 5 percentage points. – CNN Deputy Political Director Paul Steinhauser Filed under: New Hampshire • Presidential Candidates
Definite bounce from Iowa for Obama in New Hampshire. Classic politics! (I love throwing that out there... Obama, if he wins, will be doing it very much in a style not too different from what we've seen in the past, IMO. Ha! ) Impeach Bush.
Facebook was one of the sponsors. I didn't really give the link a good look, but they might have something. http://www.facebook.com/politics/?us
Obama Soars in New Hampshire! Zogby: Obama Leads By Ten Points In New Hampshire Obama 39% (+9) Clinton 29% (-2) Edwards 19% (-1) Richardson 6% (-1) CNN/UNH Poll: Obama Rockets To Ten-Point Lead Obama 39% (+6) Clinton 29% (-4) Edwards 16% (-4) Richardson 7% (+3) ARG: Obama's NH Lead Goes To 11 Obama 39% (+1) Clinton 28% (+2) Edwards 22% (+2) Rasmussen: Obama Up By 12 In New Hampshire Obama 39% (+2) Clinton 27% (+0) Edwards 18% (-1) Richardson 8% (+0)
i don't know how this will look, but from realclearpolitics: CNN/WMUR/UNH 01/05 - 01/06 268 LV 39 29 16 7 Obama +10.0 Suffolk/WHDH 01/05 - 01/06 500 LV 35 34 15 3 Obama +1.0 Marist 01/05 - 01/06 636 LV 36 28 22 7 Obama +8.0 Rasmussen 01/05 - 01/06 1203 LV 38 28 18 8 Obama +10.0 CBS News 01/05 - 01/06 323 LV 35 28 19 5 Obama +7.0 USA Today/Gallup 01/04 - 01/06 778 LV 41 28 19 6 Obama +13.0 Franklin Pierce 01/04 - 01/06 403 LV 34 31 20 6 Obama +3.0 Strategic Vision (R) 01/04 - 01/06 600 LV 38 29 19 7 Obama +9.0 Reuters/CSpan/Zogby 01/04 - 01/06 844 LV 39 29 19 -- Obama +10.0 American Res. Group 01/04 - 01/06 600 LV 39 28 22 4 Obama +11.0 Concord Monitor 01/04 - 01/05 400 LV 34 33 23 4 Obama +1.0
How strong is the Leno effect? We'll find out tomorrow. Ron Paul is going on Leno tonight. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dy....html?nav=rss_artsandliving/entertainmentnews
I'm predicting Obama wins by 14; McCain by 7 over Romney. No one drops out until South Carolina - at which point we lose Fred at the least. Clinton camp starts going hyper-aggressive (understandably) - not sure if it will be in a fair way or dirty.
That's a big win for McCain. I think the Mitster has regrouped a bit over the last couple of days (his Fox debate was much better than Saturday's) and if he loses, it'll be close. He might even pull to a tie or slightly nudge McCain.
Early reports indicate huge turnout this morning! A typical quote -- "We're seeing a lot of new faces," she said. "...People are upset and they're coming out." http://www.unionleader.com/article....rticleId=daee4dd9-a719-45c1-8c8c-0b5ef1947481
I agree - I actually don't think McCain had good debates or a good week. But ultimately, I think these polls will underestimate turnout and high turnout benefits Obama/McCain. We'll see though. It would suck (in my opinion) in Romney pulls off a win - that puts the McCain campaign on life support. He needs money and a boost - badly - and can only get them with a win.
would it be out of the question for ron paul to finish 3rd? though it's more likely he finishes 4th or 5th
New Hampshire Towns Running Out Of Ballots, Especially For The Dems Voter turnout for the New Hampshire primary is happening more rapidly than anyone had previously expected — so much, in fact, that the Secretary of State's office has gotten requests from various towns to send more ballots, before they run out. "The towns that are calling now are experiencing heavy turnout, and see their piles of ballots starting to drop at a rate faster than they're comfortable with," Deputy Secretary of State Dave Scanlan told MSNBC. "They're also stating to us that it's the Democratic ballots that have them more concerned than the Republican ballots." http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/01/08/559115.aspx
Look like the Obama tsunami is really start to roll. If Obama can do this for majority of the states, I guess it will be a landslide general election. He better watch his back, I hope his security people knows what they are doing.
The latest polls show him in a statistical tie for 3rd, either with Huckabee alone ahead of Giuliani or with Huckabee and Giuliani.
Maybe Obama is finally bringing out the young voters? If that's the case, everyone else is in deep trouble, we shall see. Isn't the secret service that is in charge of his security?
