Chuck Hayes vs. Winning

I like Chuck anyway, he has good D. we can't say he has no talent only because he has no nice stat. Plus his FT is cute

 

I have nobody on ignore, and you would be one of the last people I would put on there, I always read your posts with interest, as you always make very good points. I just noticed that you used to be all facts (together with aelliott THE capologist here) for quite some time, and since the whole pro/anti JVG discussions started, you seem to have gotten into a more aggressive posting style. But hey, who am I to talk there, I am like that myself.

By the way, I don't trust 82games much. These stats should not be taken as gospel. I could start going into the details why, but one look is enough - Snyder has the best rating of all Rockets there. While not enough to completely dismiss 82games as an entertaining source of discussion fodder, that should pretty much suffice for at least showing that all this throwing around of stats is of limited value. Not because stats are not important, but because some stats are misleading. I might be wrong, but I would think that Morey does not use 82games as a source.

 

WRONG! Just b/c he doesn't score and can't shoot free throws doesn't somehow make him the worst starting PF in the NBA, far from it.

Per minute played how many 2nd chances does he provide us? His defense is absolutely OUTSTANDING. He can reasonably guard any PF in the NBA with the exception of KG, and that is only b/c KG is great at making tough turnaround jumpers, which almost no other PF can.

Frankly, I think he is a much better than Battier.

Scola often looks good b/c he plays vs. the 2nd team. When he tries to D up people he turns into a foul machine.

In the future I expect Scola to be our starting PF assuming he can learn NBA defense.

But until that happens...I'm happy with Chuck.

 

EDIT: His defense is much better than Battier's.

 

Fair enough.

Snyder's numbers are as much a factor of garbage time and small sample size as anything.

And I'd agree in the way numbers can be misleading. The numbers would say Hayes is pretty much an average defender, when he's pretty clearly not -- part of that is because we practically never give Hayes' man a double team, no matter who it is.

Also, I agree our PF slot is just fine. The player most worrying me right now is Battier because his jumper is broken and he's not a really athletic cutter/finisher. If he can his jumper working again, we'll be just fine. I REALLY want to see this team run Brooks/Rafer/McGrady altogether and see what we've got.

The last thing I'll say on Hayes is the end of the Magic game said a lot about what Adelman thinks of him. Hayes was the guy on Rashard Lewis the whole play and forced the miss. The fact that Adelman put him on Lewis (as opposed to the more traditional perimeter defender, Battier) says a lot about just how good he is.

 

Personally, I am a big Battier fan, and I am not really worried about him at all. I think he has been in a bit of a slump, especially with his shooting, but I think he'll come around.

Despite Alston's recent strong play and Brooks' emergence, I am still most worried about the PG spot - I think that Alston at his best (which he was in the last couple of games) will still be eaten alive by Tony Parker or Deron Williams or Chris Paul, and of course by Steve Nash. I just don't really see any way we could upgrade through a trade here. We can just hope and pray that Brooks will continue to improve rapidly, and that Alston will keep playing at the level he has been the past few games, but that would be a miracle - he has been in the league for too long and has shown time and time again that he can be great for stretches, but then he will regress again and have a 4-17 night, just when you wanted to believe he really is that good...

 

I don't know what gives us the best chance to win. Assuming everyone else stays the same, I think starting Scola is the best bet for us right now, so that's how I voted. Either that, or increase Scola's minutes. We need him to be a consistent and significant contributor for us by the playoffs (if we manage to make them).

Chuck's has never been a prolific scorer, obviously, but there's been a fairly steep decline in that area this year.

Actually, after Yao returned last March and Chuck was reinserted into the starting lineup, he played terrific and was a significant contributor to our end of season run (16-7 in those games). Per 25 minutes, he averaged 7.6 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 1.4 steals, and he shot 63% from the field.

He's playing more in the high post, which probably explains in part why he doesn't get as many touches around the basket for scores. His offensive rebounding has also declined a bit, probably for the same reason.

 

By the way, I voted for Chuck to keep starting, but Scola's minutes to increase. I'm not a Chuck hater at all.

 

stats don't tell everything he is excellent on defence and is a great hustler especially on the boards, also the pf's he's been guarding are mostly superstars or all-stars and they're called that 4 a reason. They can score with over a good defender no matter how hard they play

 

That statement tells me a lot about your understanding of defense.

This question is strictly for Lemarc...

Tell me what is more important... blocking shots or staying in front of a player to get a hand in his face on every shot? Which do you think helps the team more?

 

Just a little thing about Scola being foul-prone - wasn't Chuck called a foul machine by some when he started out as well?

 

I've got to admit that I don't understand the idea that Hayes is such a great compliement for Yao. As Sir Jackie already pointed out, teams totally ignore Hayes and use his defender to double Yao. In the Boston game Perkins was playing behind Yao and KG was sitting right in front of him regardless of where Hayes was on the court. I'm not seeing how providing a defender to double Yao is helping him.

We can sit here and argue PER ratings all day, but that really proves nothing. PER Ratings are based on the strength of the unit on the floor. So, if a team has a 1st unit that is better relative to the opposition than their 2nd unit, the PER rating for the players on the 1st unit will be skewed. Is that unit doing better due to Hayes or is it the fact that he's playing more with McGrady and Yao? I vote for the latter.

As stated by someone in the thread, it's a question of offense vs defense and that's hard to quantify. What you can quanitfy though is how the team has performed. It's interesting to note the Rockets most successful 5 man units. 82games.com shows the best 5 man units and tracks each units winning%, which is the percent of the time that the 5 man unit outscores the opposition. Based on winning percentage, the 5 best units are:

1. *Brooks-Head-Battier-Scola-Yao 100%

2. James-Francis-Wells-Scola-Yao 100%

3. *Alston-McGrady-Battier-Scola-Hayes 85.7%

4. James-Head-Wells-Battier-Yao 71.4%

5. Alston-McGrady-Battier-Scola-Yao 69.2%

http://www.82games.com/0708/0708HOU2.HTM

Interesting that Scola, Battier and Yao are each part of 4 of the 5 best units. Hayes is only on one of those and that unit also includes Scola and Battier. Seems to me that we do pretty well when Scola is in the game. Sorry, but I'm not seeing how Hayes is such a critical factor to winning. The numbers seem to suggest that Yao, Battier and Scola give us a better chance of winning.

 

say what you want about haye's stats, we know he's not one to put up 10/10 every night but he's defensively is more valuable than scola's offensive game, and yes slowly scola is becoming more useful. i think starting hayes but cutting his minutes to about 20-25 and allowing scola to absorb the rest of the minutes is a good idea. im not really sure about landry's game though. i know he's undersized as well and has been compared to hayes with a jump shot but i'm pretty sure his defensive game isnt up to par to haye's otherwise he would be playing. maybe in the future we could have landry backing up scola but as of right now bringing scola off the bench is much more important seeing as how we dont really have that much of a bench. im still waiting on novak though, wish he could see some more productive minutes as well but theres only so few slots. =/

 

Chuck was a foul machine when he started out, but his defensive +/- rating was still outstanding despite his high fouling rate. He has improved tremendously in that area though, and most people believe that Scola will get much better there as well. The issue isn't so much the fouls he picks up (he does draw a fair number of charges too, FWIW) as it is disciplined defensive habits, making the correct rotations, being in the right spot at the right time and boxing out on rebounds --these are the areas where Chuck is light years ahead of Scola. That said, we are all well aware that Scola is still a rookie who is adjusting to the NBA game, so this isn't so much about him.

My problem is with these ignoramuses who can't appreciate Chuck's defensive skills. Especially this Lemarc guy -- "41 total power forwards in this league" -- wth? And then apparently he has a problem with reading comprehension too, because he responds to my last post with an argument about total scoring and free throw percentage.

 

i voted start scola.

i'm a fan of both hayes and scola. and i truly appreciate what chuck brings to the table for us. but overall, there is no doubt in my mind scola is a way better baller than hayes. thus scola should start.

i understand why jvg started hayes over juwan and fully supported that move. but now we have scola, especially he already has 30+ nba games under his belt, starting him will instantly change the situation where we're 4-on-5 in offense. scola should play more minutes too as he makes yao's job easier.

play chuck 20 or so minutes and let chuck go all out and not worry his foul situation. it's not like his defensive specialty will get wasted. but scola is almost a prototype and blueprint 4 who should play alongside yao. it's not like his defense and hustle is non-existent.

i still bet some time in this season adelman will start scola.

 

Wrong again. Your inability to recognize outstanding defense leads me to believe that not only do you not watch the Rockets, perhaps you don't even watch basketball very much!

Marcus Camby is a great defender, primarily because he is such a good shot-blocker that he's developed a very good intimidation factor. His one-on-one post defense is not nearly as good as people believe.

Great defenders make the all-D team...and more great defenders don't. Hayes will never make the all-D team because he doesn't do anything fancy. He plays tough hard-nosed defense every single night. The idea that he's slacking is a total joke.

Did you not watch his defense vs. Chris Bosh or Pau Gasol? Both of those players are very good offensive threats..and Hayes totally took them out of their games (don't look at ppg, look at FG% and how often they scored with Hayes on them). Do you honestly believe Scola can play that well defensively at this time???

Yes, I would like to see Scola start, once he plays better defense and can learn to avoid foul trouble. Until then he's better off on the 2nd unit.

However, your criticisms of CH's defense and hustle are not only unjustified, but ridiculous.

 

This is the dumbest thread in weeks. Really, you should be required to have a minimum basketball IQ to be allowed to post here. Chuck Hayes? Chuck Hayes is the ****ing man! I only wish every player on the team played as hard as Chuck. Didn't you see him shut down Rashard Lewis the other night?

That said: I was dumb enough to post a "Steve Francis: It's Time" thread back in November. Thank goodness I'm just a die hard fan, and not a coach or GM.

 

Good luck finding any team that will take Chuck Hayes.