Might I also remind you that Hollinger gives us only a 50% chance of making the post season and estimates that we'll win 46 games this year.
If the original poster makes enough predictions, he might eventually be right. This is the only thing I can think of as to why he has started so many threads.
man you are so jinxing us... everyone knows we play crappy against bad teams and good against upper-echelon teams
I would love to believe Hollinger. His statistical method is valid if and only if his assumption and data are accurate. Unfortunately, he uses past data (last year) to make the prediction that we will top the west. If only the players are better or equivalent to the past data. His past data also ignored the improvement made by other teams during these few months by trading and players that developed hugely from last year. Here's differential data hint Yao - slight negative (-) AB - slight positive (compared to no past data; did Hollinger use a default data for newbie) (+) TMac - slight negative (-) Bonzi - big positive (+++) Scola - slight positive (similar to AB) (+) Hayes - same Rafer - slight negative (-) Francis - negative (compare to NY) (--) Mike - negative (--) Mutombo - negative (--) Novak - slight positive (+) Head - slight negative (-) Battier - slight negative (-) Landry - slight positive (+) Synder - same BY differential data point of view, our current team is -4 from last year data i.e. an overall drop in performance.
I thought Boozer played well in the series against the Spurs. Duncan couldn't fully guard him as well. If anything, the Spurs lost because of one man: Manu Ginobilli. That is one guy who you cannot say lacks any heart, drive and fire.
Incorrect. Nope. Uh, no. Try again. Dude, you SUCK at predictions. Plus, the whole random "Deep Thoughts" thread-per-day thing is getting really annoying. (And slowly but surely, one thread per day is turning into two or three per day.) Could you just make ONE thread (title it like "denniscd's Random Thoughts Thread") and continually update it? I don't mind you voicing your opinion, but if we ALL posted like you, there would be 5,483 threads created per day centered around one random thought.
His power rankings do NOT use last year's data at all. He uses a formula that takes into account scoring margin, strength of schedule, recent performance, and home and road games.
Code: RATING = (((SOS-0.5)/0.037)*0.67) + (((SOSL10-0.5)/0.037)*0.33) + 100 + (0.67*(MARG+(((ROAD-HOME)*3.5)/(GAMES))) + (0.33*(MARGL10+(((ROAD10-HOME10)*3.5)/(10))))) SOS = Season Win/Loss percentage of team's opponents, expressed as a decimal (e.g., .500) SOSL10 = Season Win/Loss percentage of team's last 10 opponents, expressed as a decimal (e.g., .500) MARG = Team's average scoring margin MARGL10 = Team's average scoring margin over the last 10 games HOME = Team's home games HOMEL10 = Team's home games over the last 10 games ROAD = Team's road games ROADL10 = Team's road games over the last 10 games GAMES = Team's total games Here's the actual formula
Are most of the contributing members here on the Rockets staff or children of the Rockets employees? Is that how you get into the group? LOL Or maybe they are just 610 retreads and hosts!
Or maybe they are the ones who contributed to the site?? Hmmmmm Feed the tipjar if you wanna be a contributing member.
Denniscd knows better, Hollinger knows average. Every season, Hollinger's playoff predictions suck ass. I think denniscd has a better "predictions come true" % than Hollinger.
actually that's not historically true... last year he had pretty accurate predictions for the outcome
Hmm, last few games close L at Boston, lead against GS in the 4th, W over Toronto, W over Memphis, L at Detroit, W at Chicago, 2OT L at Denver. Bad teams we have beaten. Good teams we are competitive with, won against Toronto. Only game we werent in was the L at Detroit. This is a different Rockets team...
How could he not be opinionated on his rankings when he comes up with the formulas in the first place? He decides which statistics will be used and the weight of each stat catagory. He might not be biased for/against certain teams, but don't make it appear that he's just relaying whatever a computer tells him. With that said, I'm still a fan of Hollinger (for the most part). Nobody would've predicted that the Rockets be 2 games under .500 now, even taking into account of our tough early schedule. Winning 65 games and going to the finals might be an overly optimistic prediction, but the team definitely looked capable of doing that on paper.
