So the Iowa caucuses are tomorrow. Let's hear some predictions on who you think the big winners and losers will be. Mine: Republican: Mitt Romney wins. Huckabee and Ron Paul have good showings. Giuliani doesn't finish in the top five. Democrat: All three major candidates finish with between 25% and 35%. Hillary Clinton wins.
Dem: Edwards is this year's Gephardt, will place 3rd and his campaign will hit the skids. After New Hampshire, he will be on life-support. Hillary and Obama move on to New Hampshire as the only two choices left. GOP: Romney beats Huckabee convincingly. McCain places 3rd and gets a higher % than expected. He and Romney take their extremely nasty battle to New Hampshire. Huckabee's campaign dies after New Hampshire.
Dems: Obama wins. Hillary/Edwards not too far behind and I won't be surprised if Edwards comes in second. GOP: Huckabee then Romney. McCain wins the buzz as he places a strong third. Giuliani falters.
Dems: Very close between Obama and Clinton with Clinton winning it. Edwards won't even be in the picture after NH. Republicans: Huck will win it with McCain doing a lot better than anyone expects. The republicans in NH and the rest of the country will realize that McCain is the only candidate that has chance at winning the election
It’s going to be close all around! (What fun!) Dems No clear winner (although Obama might surprise with a slight % ahead) the big three will all go into NH with credible arguments to still take the nom. Reps Huck and Mitt in virtual tie (even after Mitt outspending Huck 10 to 1) McCain with a strong 3rd. McCain wins NH and puts Mitt on life support. And poor Rudy (after a poor showing behind even Ron Paul and losing Florida on the 29th) finds a health reason to quit the race.
I think Romney will probably pull out a win in Iowa, but it could easily be Huckabee. I'd think McCain will likely place third in Iowa and win NH, making him the frontrunner. The Democrats are completely impossible to predict, though I think Biden will place a surprisingly strong fourth (maybe 10%?) and might go on to NH. It's impossible to say what will happen with the top three without knowing where Richardson, Biden, Dodd supporters will go on the second ballot. Obama has the most to gain from a first place finish. If he gets it, look for him to take NH and SC. It was a major mistake for him (and Edwards) not to run in Michigan. If either gets momentum from Iowa and NH, Hillary can retake the lead in delegates in Michigan and keep her bid very competitive even if she does unusually badly in IA and NH.
i won't predict finishes, but will say that both McCain and Thompson will do better than expected, and Huckabee will do worse. depsite the fantasies of liberal pundits, the man is not presidential material, and his star will fade quickly after iowa. rudy is not competing, so his finish is virtually irrelevant. on the democratic side, i think obama will win, and edwards has to finish at least a strong second to have any real shot after NH. Hillary will finish in good shape tho, eeven if she's third. i don't see her cratering until after florida, assuming obama follows up iowa with a strong finish in NH.
I think the key is that I believe that most of the Dodd, Biden, and Richardson voters will have Edwards as their second choice. I think Obama will get some, and Hillary will get very few second choices from those other guys. Of course it is entirely likely I am completely wrong. I still think Obama has shown that he has what it takes to turn negative campaigning (a GOP specialty) into a positive for him. He did it very effectively to Hillary so far, and that is why he stands a chance now. If the Hillary camp can realize this she can move on and do well in NH. Obama's numbers are favorable against all GOP front runners, and I think the longer he stays in it, the more seasoned a campaigner he will become. Right now that is his greatest weakness.
As one of the few Iowans on this board, I'd follow the Register poll over the other polls for the pulse of the voters. That would have Obama and Huckabee winning. College kids are home on break now and that will mean a nice surge of youth votes for Obama, and the Evangelicals seem to have centered their support on Huckabee (they were the deciding votes in 04). The winners in Iowa for the last three elections (96,00,04) for both parties went on to get their party's nomination. The weather will be very cold tomorrow so turnout may be the big story tomorrow night.
It's supposed to be 25 and clear tomorrow. We don't consider that very cold up here. As long as it doesn't snow again, turnout shouldn't be a problem.
I've been hearing all these rumors today; has anyone heard anything about a good number of republicans caucusing for Obama tomorrow?
Please, what sane Republican would caucus for a ridiculously inexperienced candidate with a stunning lack of leadership, legislative and policy experience and whose views are diametrically opposed to virtually every plank in the Republican Party platform?
Because McCain didn't spend resources in Iowa, they despise Rudy, think Huckabee is a flake and Romney makes them want to vomit.
