Here's a reason for hope: our 3-point shooting has steadily improved since the beginning of the season. I charted it below: The blue line is our team 3-point% through each of our first 30 games, while the red line is a 4 game moving average. Rafer's shooting is coming around, and I think he might end up being around 34-35% from beyond the arc by the end of the year. Still underwhelming, but an improvement over what he was giving us the first month. More importantly, our 3-point shooting aces from last year, Shane and Luther, are getting minutes and they are starting to hit that outside shot consistently again. They should both be above 40% by the end of the year.
I'm already seriously considering picking up Luther Head off the waiver wire. Looks like he's good for two to three 3 pointers made every night now.
Yep, Luther and Shane are over 39% from 3. This kind of accuracy in November would have had us at 5 more wins. Dont look now, but Rafer is up to 31% on 3 pointers.
Nice post and nice chart. I was really starting to worry that Luther was a lost cause. It is tough with him because if he isn't nailing 3s he is a liability on the court but, on the other hand, if he isn't getting minutes he can't shoot himself out of the slump. He looks like he is getting into his groove now. As a JVG supporter, I believe Luther was the only guy who was possibly being "held back" by the old system. I really believe he can become a much more complete NBA player under Adelman but he needs to hit the long ball consistently first.
Thanks, durvasa. Cool chart! I was wondering when Head would start to get minutes and (praise the deity of your choice and pass the cookies!!) find his shot. As an Adelman supporter, that his system is finally starting to bear fruit is a relief (a vast understatement), and Head seems to be really getting it. Every time I think we're going to deal Head, he starts making me wonder if it's a good idea. I'm glad Battier is coming around with his treys (about 45% the last 5 games), but he needs to score in other ways, as well. I've never understood why he doesn't. Maybe Adelman is getting through to him. Since the Mavs game, his attempts have gone up consistently, and he's shooting around 44% overall, an improvement.
You wrong. According to the legend, red line is 4-day moving average, while blue line represents each game's 3P% value.
im glad we shot so well, but we took like 22 3 pointers. i dont know how we stack up this year but we led the league in 3 point attempts last year. we cant live and die by the 3 pointer again. i really want to see more buckets in the paint, not just jacking up 3 pointers whenever u get the chance.
dont really get the second line- owell it is really showing. they are trying to hybrid the two offenses, and it is really opening up alot of open 3 pt shots. never seen so many of them uncontested. it could be just worse defense due to the fact that our record sux and people underestimate us. or that we played bad teams= denver toronto memphis these teams arent the best, defensively
Sorry you right (that was a typo, I did mean 4-game MA). But as I said before, it does not make sense that 4-game MA fluctuates heavier than each game's data. It's common sense that MA should be smooth than its underlining data.
No, the blue line is the season average 3P% at that point in the season. The 4-game moving average cannot be higher than all four of the games from which the average is made, as would be the case at the right side of the graph if your interpretation of the data were correct. Nice graph and analysis, OP.
