The Road Back To A Championship...

Valid questions, I hate being a pessimist, but I have to be real and frank with myself. Healthy, thats including Taylor, Rice and everyone else in the west, this team is a 7th maybe 8th seed this yr. Actually, in the west you have the Lakers, Spurs,Kings,Mavs,and T'Wolves, after that you have everyone else. Actually, i think its the Lakers,Kings,Spurs, then everyone else.

The Rockets are lumped together with the dysfunctional Blazers, Old Jazz, young Clippers, confused Nuggets, and whinning Sonics. Neither of these teams at the current pace are capable of hitting the upper tier for obvious reasons but getting back to the Rockets.

Barring any kind of drastic move or improvement, this team is closer to the lottery than the championship. This team is selfish, don't play defense and can't rebound. Well i wouldn't go so far as too selfish as I would saying the system they play sux and so does the philosophy. Among the most glaring problems on this team is the lack of good big players. When i say big, I mean 6'6 and above. A player that can get his shot off, a good shot anytime late in the game. Most teams in the conference and league has one except us. There is a bright side though.

Utah and SA will be on the decline drastically in 2 yrs. Utah will be lotto bound because Stockton and Malone will retire and SA will be rebuilding when Duncan leaves. The bad part is Clipps are young and talented, the Lakers will still have Shaq and Kobe, Garnett and gang are still young, and the Kings are just hitting their stride.

One of our hopes in the future wears #33 definitely. If he developes at the present rate and we find a way to get him on the court this yr more it looks better as far as being a playoff team in a couple of yrs. With Francis, Mobley, and Griffin together, that would seem good enough to make a playoff run, but I think this offseason coming up relating to draft picks is just as important as the last yr and we blew that one in my eyes. We need to aquire players that can play and be a versitile player like Francis. Basically , as silly as it sounds, we need a taller Francis. He doesn't have to be as good, he just needs to do a little of everything. Shoot, score, rebound, assist and defend. Maybe we have that player and don't know it or maybe its a pipe dream. Whatever the case, we need to increase the talent on this team, or we'll be on the outside looking in for a long time.

 

I agree with lee, mostly in terms of where he sees the team amongst the other West competition.

In terms of players who do a bit of everything, we were all drooling over Shawn Marion last year. We have no shot of getting him, of course, but maybe he's the type of player you're looking for.

I don't claim to know basketball. I'd like to think we can be pretty darn competitive at full health and chemistry, but only a handful of teams per year enjoy that. That's just something you hope for.

I don't feel like we're really in dire need of that much talent. I think the talent level of this group is pretty close; it just needs a lot of time, experience, and stability. But I do feel like we're just a solid big-man and/or a consistent gunner away. I say and/or because I really feel like just one or the other would help tremendously. Consider Kevin Willis the first few games this year or the end of two seasons ago when Walt went on his rampage. The most important thing remains Steve and Cuttino kicking @$$, but combine those guys with a legitimate third scorer and/or a guy with a decent interior presence (both ends of the court, but primarily defensive) and we're a tough team to beat, favorites against any team but the top tier. I agree also that it's super team defense that will make us, in addition to the other aforementioned factors, that will push us into the elite. Either that, or the second coming of Olajuwon. It's frustrating because I think all of those factors are within our reach, or at least CD's and Rudy's.

My conclusion: a productive offseason via the acquiring of a big man will put us on task to be in fall of 2003 where we wanted to be going into this season before Mo Taylor's injury: a very possible 4-6 seed in the West. I think an interesting factor will be Glen Rice. I don't think we can seriously improve the 3-spot while he's here. If he can get his game going, it'll inflate our performance short-term (length of his contract), but won't help us long-term because it'll inhibit us from acquiring someone until after he's gone. If he can't, it'll give more minutes and experience to guys who might help us long-term.

 

i'll make mine short.

we become a western conference contender in 2003.

we become contenders in 2004.

we win the west in 2005.

we win in 2006.

this year should've been the year we became divition contenders.

 

I expect us to be a solid playoff contender by the 2003-04 season. That doesn't mean we won't make the playoffs next season but it just means that we probably won't be a serious threat to make an extended run. I expect that, by the 2005-06 season, we should be a legit contender. By that time, Francis will be nearing 30, the general apex of most players' careers, and the rest will be about in that range.

We need another all around player, particularly a defensive stopper. I think that Mobley and, to a lesser extent, Taylor can be solid offensive players. Francis does it all. What we are lacking is size on the front line and defense beyond Griffin. I don't necessarily think we NEED to trade some of the players we have although we may have to as a means to get where we are going. I'd say that we need to do more adding than subtracting at this point.

I'm not sure what else we could do. If we had an entirely healthy team and this record, I'm sure there would be a much differet sense of what management has done. But, while there are a few stinker deals that have been made, they are no worse than any other team in the league. Plus, they made pretty bold moves to bring in Francis, draft Mobley and land Griffin in addition to signing players for league minimums at times when they could have gotten more.

As for the coaching, most people either like Rudy T. or they don't. I think his system works when he has the players he set up the system for and doesn't when his players are hurt. What else is new? The greatest indication of a real problem with a coach is when he or his players take their business to the media. If they have had problems, and they must have had some frustrations boil over with the losing and injuries, they keep them in house and neither side has anything but glowing comments. Normally, you might even get an indication from writers (paricularly columnists) if the team was freying. No one has said a word and the players really love playing together. That is a great sign.

I don't see anyone as being a real problem. If we could get something in return for a few of those cap-heavy players, that would be great. But, I don't honestly see anyone as a hinderance to our future success at this point.

 

all we need is eddie to develop, and maybe be our future at the 5, and we are an athletic 3 away, maybe if we get a high pick this year we can deal it for one of the clippers 3s Odom or MMiles since they probably do not want both

 

We don't need a star at every position. All we need is for Steve and Eddie to develop, and for the rest of the players to blend in with them. I truly believe that Eddie is the Rockets' big man of the future. He is the Webber, Garnett, or Wallace that the Rockets have been missing in the west.

 

I think we can make the playoffs next year, win a playoff series the year after, and after that will be a serious contender. That happens to coincide with Shaq's skills beginning to decline, and Francis at the peak of his career, as well as Griffin becoming a player.

To get there, I feel we need one more serious impact player. Francis is a stud. Griffin looks like he's about 2 years away from being a PF on the level of Garnett, Webber, and Duncan. I think Mobley would benefit greatly by becoming the third or fourth option, and becoming a stopper on the defensive end. He's shown the ability to be capable of that this year. Personally, I'd like Mo Taylor to become our 6th man, and a lethal offensive weapon off the bench. That'd require Cato showing more of a pulse, or the acquisition of a solid center

I agree with lee. We could be pulling a Spurs though. Our injuries will lead to us sucking this year, and that leads to a high draft pick. This year, we'll have two options: If high enough, and confident enough, pick up the possible Shaq container, Yao Ming. Or, to a team desperate for a PG (Jason Williams), Iverson-like scorer (DeJuan Wagner), or more confident in Ming, trade the pick to pick up a stud SF or C, (see last year's Brand for Chandler, and Rahim for Gasol, possibly guys like Odom or Miles available?). Because of the contract structure of rookies, teams are very willing to trade for "sure thing" rookies that can become stud players for very cheap, while unloading current stars that are disgruntled, or close to large contract extensions.

1) Francis and Norris is an excellent PG combo, as Norris is good off the bench. Keep Tierre Brown as 3rd string, or draft someone in the 2nd round, doesn't matter.
2) Mobley is an above average SG, and Torres has a lot of potential. Torres is easily replaceable if his price is too high, but it won't be, based on what Stephen Jackson cost last year.
3) Rice will provide veteran leadership even if he doesn't regain his shot, and Morris is the type of role player all teams need. However, I think a better player could be added here, with our pick via trade (Odom/Miles?) or free agency (Rashard Lewis)
4) Griffin will be a stud. I see Taylor as the 6th man, and leading the offensive charge on the 2nd unit. KT is trade bait.
5) Who knows? I can't see Willis sticking in the league long enough when we're contenders again. Cato should be good for ~20 minutes off the bench, and Griffin will play here some when Taylor is in the game. "Everyone loves Rudy" may pay off in free agency, where the MCE can give you a 35 mill contract. Or, based on the past drafts, gamble on a guy with one of our later picks. Look at Maculloch(sp?), Haywood, White, Booth, Miller, Woods, etc. all late picks.

This is a young team, and guys that weren't supposed to get minutes are getting minutes, and they don't know the system. Norris is not equipped to be the starter.Rudy could not have fathomed Mo going down for the season, and therefore playing Griffin 40 minutes a game, and playing them well. Rudy clearly thought that Griffin would spend most of this year in garbage minutes, and only had that PnR for 3 planned for him. I think we have to wait and see at the end of the season, maybe even next year, when Rudy has time to create more plays, and more practice time. You can see the system altering slowly, to help include a guy like Griffin. Remember, he's going to get Mo back next year as well.

As far as players to get rid of, we don't really have any cancers. Rice provides leadership, and is a former all-star that has won a ring. I don't expect Langhi back next year, and Walt's future is clearly in question after this year as well. Willis' future will very likely depend on if and how other moves are made.

This team is selfish right now, but it doesn't always have to be that way. These players have the ability to control that, and it's a lot easier for our team, since the offcourt chemistry is so good.

 

Griffin is averaging around 18 points, 12 boards, and 3 blocks as a starter. Even when he doesn't score, he still defends and rebounds. The Rockets would be wise to continue giving him huge minutes. He could be a superstar next season, not two seasons from now.

 

I can't believe you guys think Cato is not a cancer on this team.I personally am sick and tired of seeing this guy in a Rockets uniform , and untill we fix this problem the Rockets are going to have some troubles. GO ROCKETS!! GO CATO(to somewhere other than Houston).

 

To be a cancer, you have to do more than not live up to expectations. Cato has not been what people thought, but maybe we expected too much. For him to be a cancer, other players would have to either give up on him (which they haven't) or listen to him while he rips into the team (which doesn't happen).

Cato will never be the stud some thought. He is what he is. His effect on the team is benign at best right now.

 

A) How many years till we get there?( Your other answers should correspond to getting there in the time you give yourself...)

How long before the Rockets are a championship contender? Whenever Francis becomes one of the top 5 players in the league, that's when the Rockets will be a championship contender.

B) WHat player moves do we need to get to make there? ( I don't mean specific trades or draft picks..they're too subject to bias and extrapolation...no tradr Kenny and Mobley for Duncan types...just, what moves in general...do we need to concentrate on the lottery, and draft a big man? Do we need to trade certain players , say Mobley, and for what type of player? Or are we doing fine, and just need to add a certain draft pick this year?

I think the Rockets have plenty of supporting talent -- Griffin, Taylor, Mobley...those are all very good support players, and Torres looks very promising as well. I don't see any moves the Rockets need to make. It all depends on Francis.

C) What, if any, management moves need to be made? Are CD and Ridy T the guys who are going to get us back up the mountain,or do we need to bring in a new approach? And if so, any suggestions?

No moves here. The Rockets are in good hands.

D) What players on our current rosters need to go because they hinder our championship aspirations, and if so, why and
how?

No one absolutely must go. As I said, the Rockets have plenty of supporting talent. It all depends on Francis. If he becomes one of the few very best in the league, the Rockets have a chance. If not, they don't.

 

Well counting on Shaq's decline is very optimistic because he's 29 and remember Hakeem was pretty dominant still from 29-35 so you got to figure unless he gets bored, then he'll still be dominant. I think Griffin is our Wallace, Webber, or Mcdyess, but I would when the time comes up see if we can position ourselves to make a run at Duncan. Call me selfish, but with Torres coming on and Griffin, the spurs might be stuck with taking less than value. If we can give up Taylor,Cato and maybe Cat, then lets do it in 2003.

 

<b>
A) How many years till we get there?( Your other answers should correspond to getting there in the time you give yourself...)
</b>

I think we're still about 2 years from becoming serious contenders. The team's rising will ultimately depend on the improvement of both Francis & Griffin. Francis is our franchise player and needs to reach top 5 calibur as Freak said, and Griffin has serious franchise player potential, and he will have to tap into this potential. I figure Griffin should be playing close to franchise player levels in about 2 years, and by that time, Francis will also have finally figured out how to balance his awesome scoring ability with his point guard duties.

<b> B) WHat player moves do we need to get to make there? ( I don't mean specific trades or draft picks..they're too subject to bias and extrapolation...no tradr Kenny and Mobley for Duncan types...just, what moves in general...do we need to concentrate on the lottery, and draft a big man? Do we need to trade certain players , say Mobley, and for what type of player? Or are we doing fine, and just need to add a certain draft pick this year?</b>

As far as drafting a big man, I think it truly rests on Griffin. My dream is for him to become our future center, and I don't think its unreasonable at all for him to do so. He said he's a 3 however, so if he really ends up playing the 3, then we most certainly hafta draft a big man. Either draft one, or trade for one- Cato is not the answer at all, Willis will retire soon, and Collier can be a good backup. It is not a necessity b/c we have a talented squad, but it would just be so much easier having a Ben Wallace or young Kevin Willis manning the middle.

If we keep up our current pace, we will be one of the worst teams and have a very high draft pick. I don't advise tanking but at this point, I think it would just be better if we concentrate on next year rather than this year simply because I think we will fight hard and end up with the 9th or 10th seed and miss the playoffs as well as lose our high lottery seed. We weren't playing well even with Francis...

This team needs experience, time playing together, and trust. They are not lacking in talent - Francis & Griffin are franchise players, Mobley & Taylor are great complimentary players, KT, Rice, Tmo (once he finds his offense), Torres, Mooch, and Collier will be great role players if not more.

<b> C) What, if any, management moves need to be made? Are CD and Ridy T the guys who are going to get us back up the mountain,or do we need to bring in a new approach? And if so, any suggestions?</b>

No management or coaching changes necessary here. I don't like our offensive system, but I believe it will actually work well when we are healthy and trusting each other.

<b> D) What players on our current rosters need to go because they hinder our championship aspirations, and if so, why and how?</b>

Nobody needs to go. WE have a talented squad that needs experience and the emergence of Francis & Griffin.

 

A) How many years till we get there?( Your other answers should correspond to getting there in the time you give yourself...)

2 years at the best, assuming Griffin develops in good order, we find a proper center, and we run the court a bit more and look better in our offense.

4-5 years at worst, if Griffin develops slower than we would like, it takes a while to find a center or we get a yong one, we lose someone to FA, or lastly we need to renovate our offensive system.

B) WHat player moves do we need to get to make there? ( I don't mean specific trades or draft picks..they're too subject to bias and extrapolation...no tradr Kenny and Mobley for Duncan types...just, what moves in general...do we need to concentrate on the lottery, and draft a big man? Do we need to trade certain players , say Mobley, and for what type of player? Or are we doing fine, and just need to add a certain draft pick this year?

I'd like to see us get a quality big man either through a trade or in the draft, as well as another one that may be a bit of a gamble, a second round pick possibly that we could take a chance on. With the way Haywood's played, having 4 years in College isn't the detriment people seem to think it is. I'd like to see if we could pick up Alvin Jones from Philly, with the possibility that we could go Langhi for Jones straight up. Philly may be a better fit for Dan and we'd get a big man we could take a look at who was very solid in college.

The lottery and a young center may be better in the long term but slow us down in the short term. I don't know of many polished centers comming out in this draft, although there are quite a few with a lot of potential.

C) What, if any, management moves need to be made? Are CD and Ridy T the guys who are going to get us back up the mountain,or do we need to bring in a new approach? And if so, any suggestions?

I too am not a fan of Rudy T's offense, simply because I don't think it plays to our teams strenghts all the time. But he's the coach and I'm just a fan so I'm willing to defer to his experiance. Having said that though, I think next year will be the most telling indicator of our timetable. Barring any unforseen injuries next season we're most definately a playoff team but I wouldn't go so far as a contender for the title. If we still struggle to make the playoffs with a healthy team and more experiance then questioning Rudy's gameplan becomes more apt.

I personally would rather the Rockets get up and down the court more and run a flex based offense with more of an extra dose of passing. As for the defensive end, I'd love to have someone come in and get our team into gear and playing stifling defense and getting points off turnovers.


D) What players on our current rosters need to go because they hinder our championship aspirations, and if so, why and how?

I can't say that anyone in particular needs to go. Cato isn't really hindering our aspirations although he isn't helping very much. As for anyone else, I think Langhi's going to be gone at season's end so I'd like to see if we can swap players with some team for him, and possibly find him a better home.

As for anyone else, I don't know if we want to keep Walt for the season, or find someone to ship him to in a package, possibly to get a piece of the puzzle. I think that's a question of opportunity and not something you can count upon. Moochie's a little overpaid for my tastes but isn't too big a concern.


I guess in closing, I think the Rockets are 1 or 2 steps away from putting together a team that's capable of putting together a series of title runs. The problem comes from the fact that the what is readily aparent, the who and how are hazy and it's crucial we don't make a big mistake in the near future.

 

I hate to keep beating this horse in the groung, but yuo have to llok no futher than Dallas, Sac,and Milw. Sac is the team i like to use most. First they acquired Webber in a deal and they made the playoffs with a starting 5 of webber,williams,williamson,divac, and maxwell or someone at 2 guard. Peja was getting major minutes and coming around nd the bench was filled with bench type players. The next year they know the needed to upgrade there 2 and 3 spots so they traded for Doug Christie and traded Corliss and inserted Peja. With the inconsitency of Vlade, Peja became a real player and that gave Webber his running mate last year. After getting swept by La, they knew J Williams wasn't the answer so they trade and got Bibby. So in 3 years this team went from a 8th seed, to a 3 rd and the 2nd round then to one of the contenders in the west. Thats a good model to use and I notice they didn't acquire any fat contracts that they couldn't move and they have probably the best starting 5 in basketball. They did all this in 3 yrs.

Looking at our team, we have our 1 franchise in Francis, the big man to run with him can be Griffin, and Mobley as maybe a third option in the future will be ok. Now what we need is the Doug Christie -Vlade Divac types in our strating lineups. The guys that you have to play on defense and brings a little bit of everything to the table. Thats where I like maybe Morris and a center that we don't have yet. If anyone think that having a team dominated by 2 guys under 6'4 will do in the west needs to wakeup. Its ok now, but we must have some kind of presence to have a consistent winning team. People will always look at the bucks, but the Bucks on a nightly basis have 3-20pt scorer's with Mason and a guy like Tim Thomas coming off the bench to give you 4. We could follow that model too except we don't have the guys at the same level of glenn Robinson,Ray Allen or Tim Thomas.