Battier for Rudy Gay/Stromile is not paying dividends

The rebounding, blocks, and steals most likely would have been there, but I agree the scoring most likely would have gone down. Doesn't change the fact that he's shooting at a much better FG % this season than Shane from the behind the arc and overall. Or the fact that he's matched Battier or slightly bested him in all statistical categories except assists by .2. And get this. Gay is averaging slightly less minutes per game than Battier doing all this.

Oh and Gay is only going to get better whereas Shane is most likely going to plateau or decline.

 

Who did the Grizzlies lose since the 05/06 season, and who did they gain, personnel-wise?

Because the Grizzlies went from being one of the best defensive teams in the league to being the worst last year and so far this year. They were a 50 win team a couple years ago, and now they'll probably struggle just to hit 35 wins. What in the hell happened?

Of course, I'm not saying that's all Battier. But if the Grizzlies replaced Battier with a supposedly far better player in Gay, there must be a considerable dropoff in other areas for the team to be so much worse. Can someone explain where that dropoff is, precisely?

 

No one will ever win this argument. Much like did that Barkely trade work out for the Rockets. Did it? Some say it did but it didn't lead to a Championship. It got the Rockets pass Sonics.

Now, can Battier help this team win a championship? I believe he will.

Rudy Gay may continue to grow and be a very good player, probably not All-Star level becuase the league is stacked with very good wings. Is he better then the current batch of All-Stars? Not in the next 3 to 4 years.

Battier is not ever going to be one but he's not the type to be one. He's the type that helped good teams over the top. Right now, with the new system, it's not as smooth as it should be.

Check back in at the end of this season and see if we are where we want to be before we blame everything on him. It's not his fault Rockets traded for him, BTW.

 

Horrible comparison, but if anything it shows you how bad we got raped. We gave up three #1 picks to get Griffin. We paid a lot to get the high potential player. We gave away a high potential player and a throw in for a role player.

Now if Griffin were sitting there at our pick and all we had to do was draft him then I say go for it all day long. Don't you draft based on potential?

 

Shane is an above average role player. I don't believe in trading away a potential future stud for an above average role player if that role player isn't putting your team into serious title contention. We were not serious contenders pre and post trade....

Yes, every team would love to have him but I doubt every team would give up the #8 pick in the draft for him. That's the difference.....

 

Atleast we got rid of Swift and his contract.

 

Dude, stop the all CAPS.
Most importantly, what is your argument? That's the whole point, the fact that CD et al didn't want Gay and opted to trade for Battier was the stupid move.

 

It makes me smile that CD is no longer in charge. It is amazing how many years of lottery draft picks squandered by CD. If he just kept 1-2 of those, Rox could have gotten at least 1 more all-star.

 

So far Battier has been a complete non-factor in every playoff series he's been in. Somehow, I don't feel things will be any different this coming postseason either.

I didn't like the trade when it happened and I hate it these days.

 

since we were never going to keep rudy (although some think we should have) and it was really shane or thabo, then obviously we take shane. but that is besides the point.

rudy is developing fantastic. better than i expected. he may be a go to guy on offense who can give 22pt/5ast one day, which would be exactly what the grizz need from the 3/4. he is by all signs an athletic freak and should be a premier player at this rate. admittedly, he would help the scoring on the rox, and would almost definitely see floor time. IF we had rudy, then no doubt he would give the team a different style of attack on offense, and no doubt he would be a fan favorite. THIS DOES NOT mean rudy would be more valuable to the Rockets than shane is because his numbers in memphis exceed shane's.

rudy could never be the defender that shane is. not to imply that shane is an all-pro defender like some on this board think, but he can cover one on one superebly, and has almost the highest off ball defensive IQ of any defender. athleticism is never going to be his strong point, but he works better with the ball on both sides of the ball than rudy does. rudy's athleticism will make up for some of his errors on defense, but ultimately the bball IQ advantage of battier means more.

simply put, battier's bball iq and his off-the-ball insticts combined with the reliable outside jumpshot mean more to this team than rudy's explosive penetration and freak athleticism would. i am still happy to have my boy battier.

 

battier's playoff sample is far too small to draw a defintive 'playoff bust' conclusion. one series with an understaffed memphis squad who never had a hope to win, and our series with the jazz. yes his numbers are bad in the sample, but i maintain it has been somewhat of a fluke.

this year is his opportunity to show us if he is really clutch or not.

 

He participated in 3 playoff series with the Grizz - against San Anton, Phoenix, and Dallas. All 4 game sweeps. All but a couple of the games were blowouts. He scored 10 points in 2 of the games. 10 points is his playoff career high. And it's not just the points, he played like crap overall. He couldn't even make half of his freethrows in those 3 series.

 

The "drop off" comes from you...as expected..distorting the facts.

The "great" 50 win defensive team you're crowing about (Hubie's first) gave up 100.2 ppg. Battier started 1 game and came off of the bench for 24.6 mpg backing up James Posey and Mike Miller.

And those famous 5-man rotation you like to shout about? On that 50 win team, Battier doesn't even show up until the 4th most played unit. In fact, of the top 10 minutes played by a 5 man unit...Battier is only listed 4 times and not one of those units has a better than 50% win rate.

Further...on a 50 win team the most "productive" 5-man unit (based upon floor time W-L) was Earl Watson - Battier - James Posey - Bo Outlaw and Lo Wright. They were the 13th ranked in minutes.

Herein lies the ridiculous focus of $Ball...it wasn't Pau Gasol, James Posey, Mike Miller, Jason Williams or Stro Swift that gets credit for 50 wins. It's Watson, Battier, Bo Outlaw and Lo Wright because they were such a productive floor time unit.

Exit Hubie...enter the defensive-minded Van Gundy clone Mike Fratello. Instead of 1 start, Battier gets 72 with 24.6 mpg jumping to 31.5. Same team as the prior year except Battier replaced James Posey. Defensive ppg constant at 100.2...wins drop from 50 to 45.

For 2005-06, the Grizz trade James Posey and Jason Williams and add Eddie Jones, Damon Stoudamire, Bobby Jackson and Hakim Warrick. Battier ups to 35 mpg and has a career FG% season and "anchors" a defense giving up 99.2 ppg. The team wins 49 games and Battier is on 9 of 10 of the most played 5-man units. And this is the season which is the basis for Battier's high $Ball rating.

Instead of directing our attention to that fact Gasol broke out into a 20 ppg player, Mike Miller was 6th Man of the Year, the Grizz rose from 102 ppg to 106 ppg, that the ancient Eddie Jones along with Gasol were on nearly every 5-man unit as Battier, or that the Grizz had 7 players averaging double figures (Battier's and the 6 ABOVE him)...$Ball wants to tell us the role playing Battier was responsible for the success.

And that 50 win team Rudy Gay "destroyed"? Gasol went from 79% of the minutes with Battier to 53% with Gay, Eddie Jones had a career low Chuck Hayes-like 5.6 ppg, Stoudamire was injured, Chucky Atkins stunk and the Grizz were forced to play rookies Tarrance Kinsey and Kyle Lowry ay PG, as Mike Miller went from 6th Man to a footnote.

A real apples-to-apples comparison.

Essentially, Battier is a 5th or 6th man in a contender's rotation who parlayed one $Ball season with Gasol and Mike Miller to rate being exchanged for the #8 pick.

 

I was talking about their 05/06 team. Not their 03/04 team. My mistake -- "49 wins". Battier started 81 games and played 35 mpg. Based on points allowed per possession, that team was 2nd in the league. As I said earlier, the Grizzlies have been dead last by that measure the last two seasons. To what extent is that attributable to change in personnel? Change in coaching?

BTW, Battier played 25 mpg in 03/04 and 32 mpg in 04/05, and 35 mpg in 05/06, and 0 mpg for them in 06/07. Their ranking in defense went from 12th to 6th to 2nd to 30th. Just an observation.

I'm not attributing the success to any one person. I'm just asking questions.

The difference from that 05/06 team and the subsequent Memphis teams has not been worse offense. Their offense, in fact, has improved since that season. They were 18th in 05/06, 12th in 06/07, and they are currently 10th early this year. The dip in their record is attributable to a huge drop in defense -- 2nd in 05/06, 30th in 06/07, and currently 29th.

Gasol and Mike Miller are very good offensive players, certainly. They're still on the team, providing more or less similar production collectively. They're not known as good defensive players, which is evident right now. Eddie Jones was a good defensive player, despite his age, and I can understand that losing him could hurt their defense. They don't have Lorenzen Wright anymore.

Basically, at the team level, we see that the big drop off has been on the defensive end. So, I'm asking why that happened? You have Battier, a player who has a reputation as a good defensive player, and you replaced him essentially with an inexperienced athlete in Rudy Gay. Perhaps that has something to do with it. There's been a general influx in young players on that team -- young players tend to be worse at defense, even when they're putting up nice "defensive stats" like blocks and steals. That could have an impact. And, of course, style of play has changed dramatically as well.

Whatever has happened, their hasn't been an obvious decrease in talent, and yet the team is significantly worse -- because of the defense.

Look at their record with Gasol in the lineup. Miller went from 6th Man to a footnote? Maybe he wasn't talked about as much because his team stunk, and he was starting instead. Are you telling me there was a significant drop off in his play?

Damon Stoudamire played even less in the 05/06 season than 06/07 season, so what does his injury have to do with it? Their PGs that year were Damon, Chucky Atkins, and Bobby Jackson. All veterans, but none of them are known to be good defensive players.

Again, I'd just like to say that I don't understand at all what you mean by this term "$Ball". I've asked you to explain it before, but you didn't respond. When you say "$Ball" are you talking about evaluating a player based on stats, or intangibles? I think it will be helpful to both you and me if you define it in a couple sentences.

Battier's reputation as a quality NBA player comes mainly from coaches/scouts and old school traditionalists. The stats are a way to try to quantify some of the things they talk about, but it's not the reason he's thought highly of. You seem to be suggesting that only a "$Ball" person (whatever that means) would like his game, but that's not remotely the case.

 

we knew we can get to the playoffs as long as tmac and yao were healthy.. we did not need another regular season player.. we needed someone who can be another weapon on the playoffs.. its not battier.. gay with his athleticism and length can be a josh howard or t prince.. j west saw that while rox mgmt didn't..

 

If a player makes your team better in the regular season, doesn't it stand to reason that they will also likely make your team better in the playoffs?

I don't know why its necessary to make a distinction between "regular season" players and "post season" players.

Is there any evidence that there's a greater increase in importance for shot creation in the playoffs compared to 3-point shooting or transition defense?

 

A good measure for analyzing this trade as whether it is good or bad, is to ask if either team would do the trade again. I would say the Grizzlies would definetely do it again and the Rockets would probably not perform the trade.

For example, although, Houston and Orlando have not advanced past the first rounds of the playoffs, the Rockets would have to agree getting Tracy McGrady was a good trade and Orlando would still like to have McGrady with Howard.

 

That is a good way of looking at it. And I think the best point to really ask ourselves that question is at the end of Rudy Gay's rookie contract.

And I'd add one other thing -- if you do it again, then the results aren't necessarily going to be exactly the same. Because there's an element of chance over the course of any season, things can change. For instance, maybe Yao doesn't miss 30 games last year if we go back in time and redo the trade. I think that's another thing to keep in mind.

 

I love when people make up arguments that they can win arguing by themselves. No one said shane had to score 25 points a game. Rudy doesn't score 25 points a game. if you have to make up straw men arguments in order to defend the trade, you've lost the argument. no one talked about playing horse, but i guess that helps your inept attempt to defend a role player vs. impact player.

 

I'm not advocating for or against Battier either way, but this is simple durvasa.

I don't have the stats on hand, but if you look it up, traditionally the games get more physical and the defense gets tighter in the playoffs. Your 3-point shooters aren't gonna get as many open looks as the D will rotate just that little bit faster. The importance of transition defense also generally goes down as teams will try to play a bit more cautious. Heck, I think even the Suns don't run as much in the Playoffs.

That's when there's the need for creators. You still need to have your 3-point and defensive specialists, but you also need people who can break the defense down off the dribble and wreak havoc before making a play; either finishing it himself or dishing it off to a teammate.

Rudy Gay can do the latter, while Battier can't. Of course, the team defense won't be as good without Battier, but it's clear that Battier's role in the starting lineup is to be a defensive stopper, which he is above average at, but definitely not up to where his reputation puts him at. That in itself, is why it would be better to have kept Rudy Gay, cause if you're talking about talent for talent, I think you probably need 3 Shanes for one Rudy Gay.

In fact, given how badly Shane is playing this year, and just how ineffective he's looked in this offense, value for value, Rudy Gay wins hands down right now too.