December 18, 2001 U.S. Again Placing Focus on Ousting Hussein By PATRICK E. TYLER WASHINGTON, Dec. 17 — The option of taking the war against terrorism to Iraq and Saddam Hussein has gained significant ground in recent weeks both inside the administration and among some important allies in the Muslim world, according to administration officials and diplomats from the region. President Bush's top national security advisers have made no recommendation to attack Iraq. But serious consideration to drive President Hussein from power, and planning how to do so, are under way in the State Department and at the Pentagon, officials said. These new considerations appear unrelated to efforts by Iraqi opposition groups and members of Congress who have sought, unsuccessfully so far, to prove an Iraqi connection to the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. Rather, senior Bush administration officials, in their statements and in consultations with crucial allies, have indicated that the success of military operations in Afghanistan is changing opinion in the Middle East over the feasibility of moving against Mr. Hussein. European opposition to any move against Iraq remains strong. But Middle Eastern diplomats say Turkey's leaders have signaled that the United States could use Turkish bases if the administration were committed to toppling President Hussein. Such regional support is almost certainly a critical factor in the administration's deliberations. But it will be equally important to Mr. Hussein's neighbors to feel that Washington is determined this time to overthrow him. The Iraqi president, who held on to power after the Persian Gulf war in 1991, is believed to be developing both chemical and biological weapons, and is still interested in nuclear weapons, though the secret nuclear program he developed before the 1991 war has been destroyed. Turkey's shifting view became public late last month when Defense Minister Sabahattin Cakmakoglu said, "We have several times said that we don't wish an operation in Iraq, but new conditions would bring new evaluations to our agenda." In the past two weeks, at least one prominent Arab envoy in Washington has reversed his view that an American-led military operation in Iraq would be a disaster, or that it would fan the flames of Arab dissent and perhaps lead to the overthrow of some weaker rulers. (His reversal, though important, is not shared uniformly in Arab capitals.) The diplomat, who refused to be identified, noted that most countries in the region harbor a latent desire to be rid of Mr. Hussein. He argued that the current military success in Afghanistan, the demonstration of a new model of warfare there and the undermining of Osama Bin Laden's radical message have created a new opportunity to act in Iraq. "I now think it is doable," the diplomat said, adding that his own government might oppose such an operation in public until it became clear it was going to succeed. "This would require a lot of governments to accept big political risks, but I believe that in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Syria, the governments are strong enough to hold the people and not have an uprising." "How many people will cry for Saddam if he goes?" he asked. Over the past month, the Bush administration has worked with Russia to formulate a new ultimatum to Baghdad, insisting that Mr. Hussein allow the return of United Nations inspectors to search for weapons of mass destruction, as required under the terms that ended the gulf war. Two weeks ago, Mr. Bush's remark that Mr. Hussein would "find out" the consequences of not allowing the return of inspectors fueled speculation of an imminent attack. The remark appeared to signal the president's determination to keep Iraq on the agenda, even though his principal advisers are far from agreed on how to proceed. Asked today whether Iraq is next in the antiterrorist campaign, President Bush said: "Oh, no, I'm not going to tell the enemy what's next. They just need to know that so long as they plan, and have got plans, to murder innocent people, America will be breathing down their neck." Over the weekend Secretary of State Colin L. Powell reiterated a very explicit statement that it is United States policy to overthrow Mr. Hussein and that "we are constantly reviewing ideas, plans, concepts" to achieve that goal. Secretary Powell also indicated for the first time that his dispatch of a State Department team to northern Iraq last week was part of an evaluation of "putting in place an armed opposition inside Iraq." The State Department specifically denied reports that the team, led by Ryan Crocker, the deputy assistant secretary of state for Middle Eastern affairs, entered Iraq under Turkish escort. Mr. Crocker was said by Iraqi opposition officials to have received a strong endorsement from one top Kurdish leader, Jalal Talabani, for a military campaign against Baghdad. But the other important Kurdish chieftain, Massoud Barzani, was said to be more circumspect. Iraqi opposition figures say Mr. Barzani has extensive business operations with Mr. Hussein's relatives. Secretary Powell, a leader of the American military during the gulf war, is said to be counseling the White House and Pentagon to prepare any campaign very carefully, advice similar to his stance during the gulf war. His caution in 1991, his conservative critics assert, helped Mr. Hussein remain in his presidential palace. Secretary Powell has urged that the strength of opposition in northern Iraq be examined, and that the Administration explore the prospect of bringing Iraqi exiles based in Iran into play as part of a "southern alliance" with Shiite Muslims in Iraq. Since Sept. 11, Arab governments, including Jordan, Egypt and Yemen, have sent emissaries to Mr. Hussein counseling him to do nothing that might provoke the United States. But instead of taking the advice, Mr. Hussein and his deputy prime minister, Tariq Aziz, have engaged in saber- rattling toward Kuwait. Outside the administration, there is still a lobby pressing for a move against Iraq, but it is President Bush's strong political standing as a wartime commander in chief that will be essential in preparing the country and its allies for an Iraq campaign, foreign diplomats and administration officials say. On Dec. 5, Congressional leaders sought to frame the justification for attacking Mr. Hussein in a letter to the president. "For as long as Saddam Hussein is in power in Baghdad, he will seek to acquire weapons of mass destruction and the means to deliver them," said the letter, signed by Senators Trent Lott, Joseph I. Lieberman and John McCain, among others. "We have no doubt that these deadly weapons are intended for use against the United States and its allies. Consequently, we believe we must directly confront Saddam, sooner rather than later." http://www.nytimes.com/2001/12/18/international/middleeast/18IRAQ.html Saddam's days are numbered.
