What's Changed & What Hasn't? A Brief Statistical Look

Obligatory "It's-Too-Early-To-Tell" Disclaimer.


Efficiency HAS to increase over last season but to do that we HAVE to be more efficient. James and Head have to hit their open shots. The whole idea of a supporting cast is to force them to double our unstoppables, then kill them with the open looks.

Turnovers are still a problem, and will be the greatest indicator of success. Our litmus test of success will be protecting the ball. This is why starting MJ is a bad idea.

 

Well it can't be (a) because Yao hasn't had any increase in defensive rebounds. In fact, he's actually a little down from the past two years. But he's far above his career average in offensive boards. I attribute that to the fact that Yao can crash the offensive glass easier from the high post. There's more space to get by his man, and it provides an easier angle to go after rebounds than from either low block.

Yao's improvement on the glass provides a small bump to the team totals, but IMO it's clearly Bonzi that's making the biggest difference. Look at his rebounding rate:

http://www.knickerblogger.net/stats/2008/Rockets.htm

REB-r: 18.1

That's like what Deke was pulling down last year. The difference is that you can actually play Yao and Bonzi together (5 minutes of the spurs game notwithstanding), and they complement each other on the offensive end.

I expect the offense to get better. Adelman's read and react system has been very slow in coming for the team. They're mostly getting by with standard P/R and post-up plays. So the offense still has a lot of room to grow.

 

Offensive efficiency is one way of looking at it, what I would be more curious to see is how many more possesions we are getting as the tempo has sped up and we have a LOT more fast breaks. Also, how has our PPG been this year as compared to next?

I expect the offense to get better as the year goes on and RA gets to implement more of his system, but Yao not being on the low block so much has enabled him to be on the floor a LOT more often, which is a HUGE advantage for the Rockets.

Yep, Rick Adelman can coach defense too, glad to see it has continued.

This is the biggest most noticable difference this year, no longer is our coach requiring the team to SPRINT back down on defense to stop transition baskets.

Rick Adelman is allowing Chuck, and Yao to get offensive rebounds and THAT is a huge change, and a massive reason the team is 5-1.....I never understood why a coach would ask a 7'6" center to not crash the offensive glass..

This team is better than last years team..in talent and in coaching.

Gonna be a fun year.

DD

 

I don't judging this early in the season......but on another note that means we have increased in net based on stats on rebounds. So that means we've improved....on paper

 

This is a skewed sample:

Factors that effect the numbers:
Relative strength of opposing team

Venue:
Home or away

I guessing we've had the toughest schedule of any team so far this year. We opened with 2 road home opener and played both the Mav's and Spurs.

Mix in some home games against weak teams and you'll see how much we've really improved this year.

 

Great points, let's see how we are after tomorrows game.



DD

 

You made two really good points one of which hadn't occurred to me. Bonzi being the rebounding/tenacity difference maker is easy to tell, but must not be understated. He hit shots and as you have shown, is rebounding like a mad man which will help against ANY team, not just SA, because no team has the defenders to outbody TMac and Bonzi.

The point that I hadn't thought of but now makes too much sense, is about Yao being able to create space from his defender and grab more offensive boards from his high post position. He is maybe the only player this is true for as his length makes it easy to cover the entire paint when he has open position from the free throw line area. Yao appearing quicker is not an illusion given to us by the almighty Adelman system. His conditioning deserves applause.

 

glad to see somebody point this out before i did

 

Overall these are very good signs.

We have the same offensive efficiency as last year despite:

1.) PG's shooting at a poor clip
2.) Tough early schedule
3.) Still learning new offensive wrinkles


Things are only bound to improve so pretty much the end verdict is that AT WORST we are as good as last year.

I'll take that.

 

Echoed. That and the one game spike of offensive rebounding (vs Spurs) are the main reasons the efficiency numbers are similar to those in last year under JVG.

Still too early to tell.

 

My best guess on the offensive rebounding increase is that it puts the bigs in a better position to crash the boards. Yao alluded to this as well, he mentioned its easier to come in from the high post to rebound versus being pinned under the basket. Another factor is that jvg had an almost maniacal obsession with transition defense, particularly at the expense of offensive rebounding whereas rick definitely emphasizes crashing the boards. Obviously as stated, the addition of bonzi and scola definitely doesn't hurt either.

 

ditto.

its much more JVG's offense with some RA differences

 

Great post, Tango!

My thoughts are:

1). Adelman's offense may have actually had a negative effect on the Rockets scoring efficiency so far-- not because it sucks, but because the team is not familiar with it.

There are parts of games when things rung beautifully, but there are also stretches were the team just looks raw with the offense. As a result, even with all the additional firepower from new players, the offensive efficiency is roughly the same.

2) What actually allowed the Rockets to make up for the unfamiliarity are two things:
(a) Increased talent: James and Bonzi are better scorers than last year's crew. When you have more individual scorers, even if your team offense doesn't work out beautifully, you can rely on the individual offense to give you a decent chance at scoring.

(b) Offensive rebounds (as you noted, this is a huge increase): Getting an extra shot out of your possession helps when you brick the first one.

3) Speaking of Offensive rebounds: What gets credit? I think it's two things:

(a) Bonzi Wells-- probably among the best rebounding wings out there and

(b) Adelman's offense-- despite the Rockets not neccesarily getting a ton of easy shots executing it, the offense is good for rebounding with the extra movements.

The case of Shane Battier is probably the best illustration. In his last year in Memphis, he averaged 2 offensive boards a game. Last season, he averaged only 1 a game. He's back to 2 a game now. His rebounding ability stayed about the same on the offensive end. The major change is he's now closer to the basket rather than spotting up for 3s.

4) The Defense stayed good.

One interesting thing about Adelman is his "Figure it out yourself" method when it comes to players. Rather than taking care of all of the details like JVG, Adelman wants give his players responsiblities for figuring things out.

If JVG is liable to overcoach, Adelman has been accused of "under-coaching." Part of this shows in the offense: Adelman would rather not run too many sets, but rather have players make the decisions (even if they are struggling with it now).

Another part, though, is defense. I remember Adelman saying in a preseason interview that he would rely on the fact that guys should remember JVG's principles and keep on implementing them. Apparently, the guys did. This team's D is still very good.


5) They are better than their stats:

Part of it is they are still VERY raw with the offense. As they get more familiar, they'll get better (if they stay healthy).

Another part is that the Rockets has played a tough schedule so far, with Mavs, Jazz, Spurs all on it. If their numbers are where they are against good teams, they should be even better for the rest of the season.

6) Conclusion:

Adelman's major contribution to this team has not been the easy shots the "Princeton Offense" promises to bring, but

(a) Motivated, healthy, not fat Bonzi;
(b) Better offensive rebounding posisiton;

that's it... the rest of the credit goes to

(a) Daryl Morey for getting more talent like Mike James and Scola, etc on the team
(b) Jeff Van Gundy, since his defensive principles are still winning games.

 

Nice statistical analysis, but I wouldn't draw any conclusions yet. You're comparing a 7-game stretch to an 82-game stretch. This just gives people a more accurate picture to a certain extent of how Houston's been winning thus far, but things can still change.

 

Tango - it's still skewed and skewed badly. Maybe it's fun to -try- to put up some kind of analysis, but pretty meaningless at this point. I guarantee you familiarity with the scheme and the coach effect effeciency. We didnt' beat the Jazz in Utah last year and the Spurs gave us fits. I also guarantee you your numbers will be way off by the end of the year.

 

Just curious (I don't have the stats handy), while the offensive numbers per 100 possessions may be similar, are the Rockets averaging the same number of offensive possessions per game this year? If the number of possessions are higher (JVG slow-down molasses vs Adleman) this year (and not forgetting additional posessions due to increased rebounding), then the scoring could be up even if the numbers per 100 pox are similar.

 

What principles are these? Two of the more important ones - Yao running around the perimeter chasing guards on screens, and conceding the offensive rebound, are not being used and the team is much better for it.