i think everyone's forgotten lidge has been consistently inconsistent these past two years and that, stretches of dominance here and there aside, he hasn't been lights for a *season* since 2005, and is arb-eligible after making $5+M this year and a FA after next season. and some of you have the gall to declare the astros could have gotten more than an up-and-coming CF/lead-off hitter (one of, if not our biggest need) and a 3b prospect, 24 years of age, with power which we haven't had since ken caminiti in 1964 -- both of whom, by the way, we control for the next 3 and 4 years, respectively? wow. some of you will simply never be satisfied. it's a tremendously promising trade with nothing but upside. the astros now have 4 legit everyday prospects on their 40-man: pence, towles, bourn and can'tstandyo - doubling the # they had this time last year.
I'm happy with the trade, but you cannot compare Costanzo to Caminiti. Costanzo may not be good enough to handle the 3b position, while Caminiti is arguable the best defensive 3b of his generation (at least in my POV). From what I've read on Costanzo, he doesn't have the skills to play 3b, and seriously struggles against LHP. When it's all said and done, I think Costanzo is a 1b platoon player who will be used as trade bait in the future.
i didn't. i said he was the best *since* caminiti; ie we haven't had one of any note in more than a decade.
Hey Ric, were you on vacation? I've been checking for new articles over at HPF and missing your commentary here.
I think it is a great move on Philly's standpoint, unless Costanzo develops into a quality starting 3B. Lidge is the most talented player in deal, but also the most costly. For the Astros, it will depend on how well they use the money from Lidge (hoping for Castillo), on if Bourn can continue to have a high OBP, or Costanzo develops very well. I've got no problems with Qualls closing, so I really like this deal. The Astros do need to get another setup guy, though.
I am excited about this trade. Closers are vastly overrated to begin with, and as several posters have stated, Lidge hasn't been "lights out" consistently since 2005. He only has one-and-a-half pitches he can throw in the majors -- meaning, two pitches when he can locate the slider, but just the fastball when he can't (allowing hitters to sit on the fastball and send it into orbit, e.g. Pujols). Apparently all his efforts to learn a curve or some other pitch have failed, which seems odd considering he was originally drafted as a starter. He has a bad injury history too. Bleh. I feel bad for trashing the guy, considering some of the memorable strike-out-the-side innings I've enjoyed from him, but it was time to get rid of him. Considering all factors -- talent, youth, cost, value of a CF over a closer -- I think we got the best end of the deal for sure. Not even close.
thanks - no; just busy. lots going on personally - all good. hpf is... well, hpf is, for right now. more likely coming very soon. good call; he actually projects VERY favorably to ensberg, power-wise.
Nice move. Just a couple more good moves, get another quality starter, another set up man and you can say their offseason matched the Rockets.
Ensberg had similar power in the AA with a much better batting average and slugging percentage along with less SOs, although Ensberg was one year older at AA. Ensberg was also a solid defender at 3b unlike Costanzo. I think Costanzo will make it to the majors, but he won't be anything special unless he figures something out in the minors. IMO, Ensberg was a much better prospect than Costanzo. However, much like any other prospect, who really knows how Costanzo will eventually turn out.
IIRC, Ensberg was an A level prospect for much of his early minor league career. However, his slowed progression through the ranks pulled off some of the sizzle that was never really recaptured until his fluke season with the 'stros. There may be more to George, but we won't know until he plays AAA for us. Plus, it's not like he has to take an all-star's place on the big team. side note: years ago, adam wexler covered astros player development in a local small time paper. His opinions were generally on the money. He was even had a fairly low evaluation of Ensberg while many people were still quite high on him. does anyone know if wexler still does this?
dont be too high on costanzo. he's terrible at defense and he strikes out a ton. he was a throw in. i wouldnt bet on him turning into much of anything. the upside is there, but he's a second tier prospect at best
Here are his minor league stats: http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/E/morgan-ensberg.shtml He really took off in his first season in AA at age 24, one year later than Costanzo, but with much better stats all around. Here are Costanzo's stats: http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/C/mike-costanzo.shtml Granted, analyzing minor leaguers requires more than just reading a player's stats, but statistically speaking, Ensberg was arguably a better prospect. However, I'd be quite happy if Costanzo develops into an Ensberg-type player with more consistency. I remember how frustrating it was to watch Ensberg try out a new batting stance every time he steps up to the plate.
Regarding the defense, Morgan wasn't exactly free of errors in AA (27 in 2000 at Round Rock). And I understand that most of the current decent/good MLB 3rd basemen had problems at one point in the mid/low minors. If you look at Costanzo's lefty vs. righty splits, as it stands he is very productive against righties and incredibly pathetic against lefties. It is not unnatural for left handed batters to take a long time to learn how to hit lefties, much more than right handers on right handers (because there are so many fewer to see). Also it will be interesting to me to see if, once he repeats at the same level for a second year in a row, whether his poor first halfs is really a matter of adjusting to a new level whether he is just an insanely slow starter. Also, one should note that the Texas League is considered much more of a hitter's league than the Eastern League. From what I understand, he really has some extended second half streaks where he has looked like he would develop into a legitimate MLB everyday player. I don't think his flat, non-split statistics quite tell the whole story.
I sure didn't remember Ensberg's ascent being that rapid. I must be getting him mixed up with someone else.
This trade is ****in' huge. Seriously, I don't think Lidge would have ever turned it around here. He might in another city, but he needed to be traded. Now, whether or not we could have gotten more for him, I don't know. I don't put much stock in Philly fans thinking they got the better end of this deal, because I imagine few of them realize, yet, what kind of frustration Lidge will bring to that team. I hope Bourn can be the Juan Pierre type player he projects to be.
