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07-08 Player PER projections(YAO at #1)

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Butterfingers, Oct 9, 2007.

  1. Butterfingers

    Butterfingers Contributing Member

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  2. Nice Rollin

    Nice Rollin Contributing Member

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    sounds about right.

    i played fastbreak (salary cap challege), and yao wtill be #1 cuz he shoots the FT really well
     
  3. Almu

    Almu Contributing Member

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    Excellent!

    Now, if he only can stay healthy....
     
  4. rayden

    rayden Member

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    #1 Yao Ming:

    Status Alert: Yao will likely play more in the high post in new coach Rick Adelman's system this year, but he'll also spend plenty of time down low, the Houston Chronicle reports. (Oct 6)

    2006-07 season: Yao continued his steady improvement by establishing himself as an MVP candidate before a broken leg cost him 34 games. Nonetheless, his numbers for the season were awesome.

    Yao averaged 29.1 points per 40 minutes, and did it quite efficiently. He hit 51.6 percent from the floor and, perhaps more importantly, 86.2 percent from the line. His proficiency from the stripe is an underrated weapon, as opponents frequently resorted to fouling him as a means of stopping his lethal post game. Overall, Yao ranked eighth among centers in true shooting percentage and 19th overall -- pretty lofty heights for a guy with the top usage rate at the position.

    Despite his immense size, Yao is only an average rebounder. He doesn't move well laterally so he doesn't get to balls out of his zone; the result was the 27th-best rebound rate among centers, which is solid but slightly disappointing.

    Yao had a rough playoff series against Utah, shooting only 44.0 percent and averaging nearly five turnovers a game. Worst of all, he had all kinds of trouble staying with Carlos Boozer at the defensive end, a big reason the Jazz were able to win in seven games.

    Scouting report: Once Yao catches the ball on the block he's virtually impossible to stop because he's so tall and is such a good short-range shooter. That's particularly true from the right block, where he uses what is basically a standing turnaround jumper -- he catches the ball with his body half turned and just shoots immediately. He also has a step-back jumper that's even more impossible to block than his normal shots. Additionally, he's getting wiser at using trickery such as shot fakes and leaning in to draw fouls, something he never used to do.

    Teams dealt with Yao by either double-teaming or fronting; either was preferable to just letting him catch and shoot. The Warriors were particularly effective fronting him in a late-season game, partly because they didn't have to respect Houston's other shooters and could rotate help from the weak side. The Rockets hope their offseason additions will change that.

    Doubling was the more common strategy, and Yao needs to get better at dealing with swarming hands. Though he's a willing passer, there are still times he seems befuddled by quicker teams' rotations.

    2007-08 outlook: Check out Yao's numbers on a season-by-season basis -- they've gone steadily upward. He figures to keep heading in that direction; in fact, the projections foresee him having the league's top player efficiency rating this season.

    The biggest obstacle for Yao this season isn't performance, it's health: He's missed 59 games over the past two seasons. While much of that seemed to be the result of freakish, isolated mishaps, there's a real concern that all the pounding on his 7-6 frame will take an early toll.

    Nonetheless, if you were looking for MVP candidates, this would be a good place to start. The Rockets' roster improvements mean they have a great shot at challenging the Spurs-Mavs-Suns elite that has ruled the West the past few seasons. If Yao's continued ascendance goes along with it, as the projections suggest, there's a real chance we'll have our fourth straight foreign-born MVP winner.


    Most similar at age: Zydrunas Ilgauskas
     
  5. rayden

    rayden Member

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    #15 T-Mac:

    Status Alert: McGrady said the blister that forced him to cut short his participation in Wednesday's practice did not bother him Thursday ? as long as he did not look at it, the Houston Chronicle reports. "It's nasty," he said. "The whole skin is peeled off." (Oct 5)

    2006-07 season: McGrady battled alternately with his back and a lack of teammates who could make shots, with the end result being a carbon copy of his first two seasons in Houston: A scoring average in the mid-20s, a low shooting percentage and an insanely high usage rate.

    Believe it or not, the guy who was making the most offensive plays last season wasn't Dwyane Wade or LeBron James or Kobe Bryant. It was McGrady, who along with Yao Ming bore an incredible offensive weight because the team was essentially playing two-against-five all season. McGrady's 32.9 usage rate led the league, with Wade the only one who got reasonably close (see chart).



    Top Usage Rates, 2006-07*
    Player Team Rate
    Tracy McGrady Hou 32.9
    Dwyane Wade Mia 32.7
    Kobe Bryant LAL 31.1
    Carmelo Anthony Den 30.6
    Zach Randolph Por 30.1
    * - minimum 500 minutes


    This heavy load wasn't necessarily a good thing, as McGrady's true shooting percentage ranked only 50th among shooting guards. He did a great job involving others, though, as his assist ratio ranked 15th at the position, and his turnover ratio was solid, too (18th).

    That background puts McGrady's playoff performance into perspective, as he did more of the same -- he took 23 shots a game and averaged nearly seven assists, but made only 39.4 percent from the floor. He was criticized for going four minutes without shooting in the fourth quarter of the seventh game, but in that time he assisted on two buckets, and a spate of offensive boards by the Jazz meant the Rockets had only six total possessions. For the game, Houston scored only nine baskets that McGrady didn't either score or assist on -- a cry for help if I've ever seen one.

    Scouting report: McGrady continues to be one of the best midrange jump shooters in the game. At 6-8, he can elevate over defenders going in either direction and has a smooth, accurate stroke.

    Last season he made 44.4 percent of his long 2-pointers, an outstanding percentage considering the volume of shots he took from that distance (over eight per game). Of the players who took over 400 shots from that distance last season, only Dirk Nowitzki and Ben Gordon converted a higher percentage. One of McGrady's favorite tricks is to start at the left elbow, dribble right, then spin back to his left and go up with the jumper.

    The only concern is just how frequently he's relying on the midrange shot. McGrady took 40.7 percent of his shots from that distance last season; the most of any player with over 1,000 field-goal attempts. In raw terms, only Kobe Bryant had more long 2-point attempts, and that was with McGrady missing 11 games.

    Meanwhile, McGrady's 3-point and free-throw marks have slumped. Last season he hit a career-worst 70.7 percent from the line, a shameful mark for such a great shooter. He wasn't much better on 3-pointers, hitting 33.1 percent -- he seems to be more comfortable shooting off the dribble than just catching and shooting on a kickout from a teammate.

    McGrady is just an average defender, as most of his energy is spent at the other end of the floor. His health is also an issue, as repeated back problems have cost him chunks of games each of the past two seasons. However, a back specialist he visited last season had him feeling in much better spirits, providing hope that he can make it through this season relatively unscathed.

    2007-08 outlook: McGrady's player efficiency rating should stay in the low 20s, but expect it to be structured differently. The Rockets' talent influx in the offseason should allow him to ease up on all the long jumpers at the end of the shot clock and produce fewer shots, but of a higher quality.

    The projections don't know this and predict him to lead the league in usage rate again, but between Yao Ming's continued ascension and the improved supporting cast, I'd look for that number to dip quite a bit. Instead, look for him to achieve a more meaningful milestone -- finally getting out of the first round of the playoffs.


    Most similar at age: Vince Carter
     
  6. rayden

    rayden Member

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    The above are my cut 'n Paste from ESPN Insider.
     
  7. Junetastic

    Junetastic Member

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    Isn't this info in another thread? I swear I read both of those projections already.
     
  8. Butterfingers

    Butterfingers Contributing Member

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    It is similiar to Duvarsas thread regarding player rankings. But this is just slightly different because it is PER projections. But yeah Hollinger uses a lot of the same material word for word.
     
  9. Chronz

    Chronz Member

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    Its the same thing man
     
  10. Ziggy

    Ziggy QUEEN ANON

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    I would expect Yao's shots per game to drop because we have more weapons, and FG% to drop a little in Adelman's offense. He looked excellent tonight though. So who knows.
     
  11. freemaniam

    freemaniam 我是自由人

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    [​IMG]

    This is so cool.
     
  12. ToothYanker

    ToothYanker Contributing Member

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    Look for his rebounds and FTM/FTA to drop also. Actually, we'll probably end up with 2nd year Yao, but with about 2.5 more assists per game. I don't know if that's a good thing since all of Yao's dominance came when he destroyed opponents down low but a lot of the other clutchbbsers sure think so.
     
  13. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    In 17 minutes in the first pre-season game, he had 11 FGA and 6 FTA. That's more than his per-minute rates for FGA/FTA last season. And the majority of his shot attempts were around the basket.

    So, what makes you think that his scoring will drop?
     
  14. doublehh03

    doublehh03 Member

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    exactly, if anything, this allows him to get more shots in more ways. why can't people understand that?
     
  15. hikanoo49

    hikanoo49 Member

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    Very positive article about Yao but was it only me that found it strange towards the bottom area where they said player most similar to at age............. Ilgauskas!!!!!

    i mean, they are saying Yao may be MVP. When has Ilgauskas discussed as an MVP candidate? strange
    :confused:
     
  16. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    The similarity score that he uses takes into account height as well. All of Yao's strengths (scoring in the post, shot blocking, free throw shooting, height, decent rebounding) are also strengths for Z. Of course, Yao is a far better player, but he's such a unique player historically that Ilgauskas ends up being the most similar.
     
  17. Spacemoth

    Spacemoth Contributing Member

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    Yeah, Ilgauskas and Carter...two guys you would LOVE your team's centerpieces to be compared to. Couldn't he have been kinder and said something like Rik Smits and Clyde Drexler? Players who actually made positive contributions and had meaningful roles in deep runs through the playoffs? I'm not asking for much here.
     

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