NBA Notebook: Early shooting guard rankings (Fantasy)

article link

or

article link 2

NBA Notebook: Early shooting guard rankings
Brian McKitish, Special to ESPN.com

It might not seem like it, but it's almost time to start buckling down on your fantasy hoops cheatsheets. Think about it, training camp starts in just a few weeks. Yeah, it's that close. To help get you started, we're running through each position, taking an early look at the playing field. Last week, we took an in-depth look at the point guard position. This week, we'll tackle their backcourt mates - the shooting guards.

Tier 1

1. Kobe Bryant, Lakers

Kobe is a no-brainer. He's easily the best fantasy shooting guard in the game today, and that's not really debatable. In fact, he's so much better and safer than his competition that he actually deserves to be in a tier by himself. And this is coming from somebody who's never really been a "Kobe guy".

Tier 2

2. Allen Iverson, Nuggets 3. Dwyane Wade, Heat 4. Ray Allen, Celtics 5. Joe Johnson, Hawks 6. Vince Carter, Nets 7. Tracy McGrady, Rockets 8. Michael Redd, Bucks

Tier 2 boasts many of your do-it-all fantasy shooting guards. Most of these players will leave the draft board in Rounds 2 and 3, except for maybe Tracy McGrady and Michael Redd, who will at times drop into the early fourth round. T-Mac is particularly intriguing this season as he'll undoubtedly benefit from Rick Adelman's new offense, but will still be risky due to his propensity for injury.

Some still question Iverson's ability to produce with Carmelo Anthony around, although I think he answered those questions quite well by averaging 24.8 points, 3.0 rebounds, 7.2 assists, 1.8 steals and a 3-pointer per game in Denver last season. Other than the drop in scoring, those numbers are comparable to past seasons, and let's face it, 25 points per game still qualifies him as a dominant scorer. Adding to his value is the fact that 'Melo's presence allowed AI to become a more selective shooter, resulting in a nice 45.4 shooting percentage during his time in Denver. The increase in field-goal percentage will help offset the drop in points scored, and we should still view AI as a late first/early second-round selection.

If it weren't for his troublesome shoulder injury, Dwyane Wade could potentially top this list. And yes, I'd probably put a healthy Wade slightly ahead of Kobe in the rankings. Problem is, we don't know how healthy he actually is, and that makes Wade this year's biggest risk/reward gamble. Unfortunately, he's a gamble you'll have to take early in the second round, and that's not exactly an ideal spot to take a risk. Everyone has their own risk tolerance level, but personally, I don't start looking for risk/reward guys until at least the 4th or 5th rounds.

Tier 3

9. Leandro Barbosa, Suns 10. Kevin Martin, Kings 11. Brandon Roy, Trail Blazers 12. Jason Richardson, Bobcats 13. Ben Gordon, Bulls 14. Jason Terry, Mavericks

No one will be sleeping on last year's best late-round bargains -- Leandro Barbosa and Kevin Martin -- but I don't think people realize just how good these two guys are. Barbosa finished the season as the 18th overall player on ESPN's Player Rater, while Martin came in four spots lower at 22. So, according to the Player Rater (assuming Barbosa and Martin are able to sustain their production from last season) both should be drafted in the mid-to-late second round then, right? Not from what I've seen so far. Both are still hanging around on draft boards in the fourth and sometimes even the fifth round. That's still value right there, as we can and should expect both Barbosa and Martin to duplicate their success in 2007-08.

Tier 4

15. Ricky Davis, Timberwolves 16. Monta Ellis, Warriors 17. Manu Ginobili, Spurs 18. Raja Bell, Suns

I'm torn on Ricky Davis. On the one hand, he could be completely dominant in the young and inexperienced Timberwolves offense. At the same time, the Wolves have quite a few young players that the need to get into the lineup for experience. At some point, Davis could easily become expendable. That having been said, Davis could also be a total stud with 20/5/5 potential. We'll have to get a look at the Wolves in the preseason to truly gauge where he fits into their plans, but even then, there will always be that risk that the Wolves will limit his minutes in an effort to secure "experience time" for their talented crop of youngsters.

Many will shy away from Monta Ellis due to the addition of summer league star Marco Belinelli. Don't be one of those people. Ellis is one of the quickest players in the league, and that's a trait that comes in handy in Don Nelson's fast-paced offense. No need to worry, Ellis will be logging serious minutes and putting up serious stats for Nellie this season.

A player of Manu Ginobili's talent level should never be ranked this low on any list, but we're talking fantasy hoops here, not playoff basketball. The thing with Ginobili is that he hasn't seen the north side of 28 minutes per game in more than two years, and even though he's highly productive in limited playing time, he can't be relied upon as an upper echelon shooting guard until he starts earning more regular-season minutes. Unfortunately, that's not a likely scenario in San Antonio. Gregg Popovich realizes the importance of having a healthy stable of horses in the playoffs, and he won't jeopardize that by running the injury-prone Manu out on the court for 30-plus minutes per game in meaningless regular-season action.

Tier 5

19. Richard Hamilton, Pistons 20. Anthony Parker, Raptors 21. Morris Peterson, Hornets 22. Cuttino Mobley, Clippers 23. Larry Hughes, Cavaliers

Sleeper alert. Morris Peterson and Cuttino Mobley are poised to rebound after poor showings in 2006-07, as Peterson steps into the starting shooting guard role in New Orleans while Mobley will see increased offensive opportunities on the Elton Brand-less Clippers. Look for both to score around 15 points with 1.2 steals and 1.5 3-pointers per game.

Tier 6

24. Josh Childress, Hawks 25. Kyle Korver, 76ers 26. Juan Carlos Navarro, Grizzlies 27. Marco Belinelli, Warriors 28. Steve Francis, Rockets

It's a shame that Josh Childress has to be ranked so low, because the guy has some serious talent. In fact, his 2006-07 numbers are eerily similar to Luol Deng's 2005-06 numbers, and it wouldn't be out of the question to see Childress' career take off like Deng's did last season. That, however, probably won't happen this season, as the Hawks have too many weapons (JJ, Smith and Marvin Williams) who may cut into his minutes.

We spoke about the ridiculous logjam in Houston's backcourt last week, and things haven't gotten any clearer one week later. The artist formerly known as the Franchise is nowhere near the player he once was, but he still has game nonetheless. It's definitely possible that he'll be rejuvenated now that he's back in Houston, but I certainly won't be betting my season on it.

Tier 7

29. Mike Dunleavy, Pacers 30. Charlie Bell, Bucks 31. DeShawn Stevenson, Wizards 32. Sasha Pavlovic, Cavaliers 33. Luther Head, Rockets 34. Ronnie Brewer, Jazz 35. Francisco Garcia, Kings 36. J.J. Redick, Magic 37. Kareem Rush, Pacers 38. Juan Dixon, Raptors

If you're looking for upside gambles towards the end of your draft, Ronnie Brewer, Francisco Garcia and Kareem Rush may fit the bill. Many will be more intrigued by rookie gunslinger Morris Almond, but Brewer already has a year under his belt in Jerry Sloan's system, and we all know how Sloan likes to shaft his rookies on playing time. That said, expect Brewer to earn the lion's share of minutes at shooting guard for the Jazz, even if he doesn't start.

Garcia and Rush are far from sure bets, but both will have an opportunity to earn more minutes this season. Garcia was impressive last April averaging 13.1 points, 4.7 rebounds, 0.8 steals, 0.9 blocks and 1.0 three pointers in 26.4 minutes per game. He's shaping up to be a nice multi-category contributor if he can somehow earn 25-30 minutes per game for the Kings. Rush, on the other hand, could push Mike Dunleavy for minutes in Indiana if the Pacers start to tire of Dunleavy's inconsistent play.

Tier 8

39. Martell Webster, Trail Blazers 40. J.R. Smith, Nuggets 41. Morris Almond, Jazz 42. Jerry Stackhouse, Mavericks 43. Damien Wilkins, SuperSonics 44. Eddie Jones, Mavericks 45. Bonzi Wells, Rockets 46. Tony Allen, Celtics 47. Willie Green, 76ers 48. Rashad McCants, Timberwolves 49. Louis Williams, 76ers 50. Mardy Collins, Knicks

At this stage in the game, we're looking for upside picks. Plenty of guys on this list could do some damage if given the playing time, but I'm not sure any will secure 25-plus minutes per game for their respective teams. Martell Webster, Almond and Louis Williams intrigue me the most, though I wouldn't start thinking about any of these players until the last few rounds.

Brian McKitish is a fantasy baseball and basketball analyst for TalentedMrRoto.com and ESPN.com. He can be reached at Littlemac@TalentedMrRoto.com.

 

article link

Here is the point guard one....

NBA Notebook: Early point guard rankings

By Brian McKitish
Special to ESPN.com
(Archive)


Good luck trying to win your fantasy league without a few solid point guards. Some call them the running backs of fantasy hoops. I liken them more to quarterbacks, but whatever you call them, there's no doubt they're needed in the fantasy game.

Why do we love point guards so much? Well, no other position can really fill your need for assists. Sure, there are a few stud swingmen like LeBron James or Paul Pierce, and even some big men like Kevin Garnett or Pau Gasol, but those types of players are few and far between, not to mention all gone by the end of the third round. Overall, the assist category is a dead zone outside the point guard position. It's not like I'm splitting atoms here, either; it's pretty obvious that if you want to be competitive in assists, you'll need to secure some quality point guards.

It's not just the assists, though. Point guards are a versatile bunch. Aside from their ability to dish, the good ones will also be able to score, hit the 3-ball, record some steals and maintain a highly efficient rate from the free-throw line. For those keeping score at home, that's five categories right there. Think about it: You can win almost every week in head-to-head leagues with a point guard-dominated roster.

Problem is, this year, the point guard position is kind of a mess and quite top-heavy. A frustrating number of teams have serious logjams in their respective backcourts, and that means lots of time-shares. In the fantasy game, time-shares are your worst enemy because minutes equal production, and lack of minutes equals, well, lack of production.

With that in mind, securing a stud point guard in your draft should be a top priority this season. It's just too risky to rely on those stuck in crowded backcourts. Let's take an early look at the fantasy point guard rankings sorted by tiers:

Tier 1

1. Gilbert Arenas, Wizards
2. Steve Nash, Suns
3. Chris Paul, Hornets
4. Jason Kidd, Nets
5. Chauncey Billups, Pistons

You really can't go wrong with any of the studs listed in Tier 1. All are low-risk investments who are near locks for a high-reward payout. What's not to like?

Arenas always fills the stat sheet, but he could be even better this season since he's playing for a contract. Scary thought, huh?

Kidd won't score like the rest of his counterparts here, but you'd be hard-pressed to find a player who contributes consistently across the board like J-Kidd. He's ranked only slightly behind Chris Paul because he's starting to get to the age where his body may begin to break down.

Chauncey Billups won't completely wow you like the others in the first tier, but he earns major bonus points for consistency and durability because he's dominant in points, assists, 3s and free-throw percentage and has missed an average of just five games per season over the past three years.

Tier 2

6. Deron Williams, Jazz 7. Kirk Hinrich, Bulls 8. Raymond Felton, Bobcats 9. Mike Bibby, Kings 10. Baron Davis, Warriors 11. Mo Williams, Bucks

Two players in Tier 2 jump out at me as guys who could easily make the jump into Tier 1 by this time next season. Deron Williams and Felton are not just ultra-talented -- they're young, exciting and ready to make the jump into elite point guard territory.

I know I'll catch some flak for not ranking Deron among the elite this season, but he just doesn't do enough for me in steals (1.0), 3s (1.0) and free-throw percentage (76.7) to put him up there just yet. He's solid in all categories, but really dominant in only one: assists. As for Felton, well, he's not nearly as good as Deron in real life, but he does have the potential to be a better fantasy player. His ability to provide steals, 3s and assists in bulk more than makes up for his lack of efficiency from the floor (38.4 percent).

Davis would be in Tier 1 if it weren't for the wave of frustrating injuries he's suffered over the past five years. Baron hasn't been able to suit up for 70-plus games since the 2001-02 season, making him one of the draft's biggest high-risk/high-reward picks.

Mo Williams and Bibby are two of my favorite point guard targets this year because they can produce numbers comparable to the upper echelon, but both can be found hanging around in rounds five or six on draft day.

Tier 3

12. Andre Miller, 76ers 13. Tony Parker, Spurs 14. T.J. Ford, Raptors 15. Stephon Marbury, Knicks

Parker and Miller are similar fantasy players, except I guarantee that Parker will go at least a round earlier in your fantasy draft. Problem is, Parker is a much better player on the court than he is in the fantasy game. Don't get me wrong: Parker is a solid fantasy point guard, but he just doesn't do enough in steals (1.0), 3s (0.2) and free-throw percentage (career 71.6 percent) for my liking. He will be a dominant force from the field, however, which makes him quite special among point guards.

Look out for Ford in Toronto. He has a capable backup in Jose Calderon, and his stats could suffer the consequences of the time-share. Last season, Ford earned the lion's share of minutes (29.9 to Calderon's 21.0), but that could even out more this season as Calderon continues to gain experience in his third professional campaign.

Tier 4

16. Jameer Nelson, Magic 17. Randy Foye, Timberwolves 18. Rajon Rondo, Celtics

Here's where things start to get dicey, and there's a reason why Tier 4 is a short one. It's really the last tier of point guards that I'm comfortable with right now. I'm sure some other contenders will be able to move into this tier as we start to sort out position battles during preseason action, but for now, this is what we're left with.

All three players in Tier 4 can be considered sleepers, especially Nelson and Foye, who are both coming off underachieving seasons. I'm not buying all this Sebastian Telfair talk in Minnesota, and I fully expect Foye to be the starting point guard from Day One. With the youth movement in full effect, expect Foye to take advantage in his second season.

Tier 5

19. Devin Harris, Mavericks 20. Jose Calderon, Raptors 21. Chucky Atkins, Nuggets 22. Jamaal Tinsley, Pacers 23. Derek Fisher, Lakers

Now do you see why it might be more important to lock down a few quality point guards early in your draft? The players in Tier 5 aren't exactly bad fantasy players, but they're more like role players who can fill specific needs rather than starting fantasy point guards. Many of the players listed in Tiers 6 and 7 are easily more talented than guys like Atkins and Fisher, but Atkins and Fisher have one key thing that the others don't: a clear-cut starting job and, therefore, guaranteed minutes.

Tier 6

24. Mike James, Rockets 25. Delonte West, Sonics 26. Mike Conley Jr., Grizzlies 27. Smush Parker, Heat 28. Acie Law, Hawks 29. Luke Ridnour, Sonics 30. Daniel Gibson, Cavaliers 31. Kyle Lowry, Grizzlies 32. Brevin Knight, Clippers 33. Sam Cassell, Clippers

And here come the time-shares. I'm not going to lie: It's an absolute mess in Memphis, Atlanta, Seattle, Portland and Houston. In fact, we could probably do a full column on each team and still have plenty of issues to discuss. I'm not going to tell you who will be the starters, because I don't know. I don't know because the coaches still don't know and probably won't know until midway through training camp. And even then, we're likely to see the minutes spread out rather than see true starters and backups. Like I said, it's a mess. There are just too many point guards and not enough minutes to go around. Let me be clear about one thing: The rankings in Tier 6 are very tentative, as some of these position battles will be ironed out in preseason action.

In Houston, James seems to have the initial upper hand, given Rafer Alston's recent legal woes. James should be able to knock down plenty of 3s with Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming commanding most of the attention. Still, James probably won't see more than 30 minutes per night with Alston, Steve Francis, Luther Head and Aaron Brooks all pushing him for minutes.

West is more of a shooting guard, but in Seattle this season he'll probably be thrown into the mix at the point with Ridnour and Earl Watson. West is the most talented of the Sonics' three-headed point guard machine, and since he can contribute in multiple categories, he'll likely have the most fantasy value of the three.

In Memphis, it looks like Conley Jr. will get the nod as the starter, but look out for second-year man Lowry. Lowry is pretty talented in his own right, and if the summer leagues were any indication, we could be looking at a true time-share here. The addition of Juan Carlos Navarro makes the situation even more cloudy, since Navarro also can handle the rock like a point guard.

Most folks are fully expecting the Atlanta Hawks to simply hand the keys to rookie Acie Law, but the Hawks still have Tyronn Lue, Speedy Claxton and Anthony Johnson on the roster. Law should log around 25 minutes per game, and that will undoubtedly hurt his overall value.

In Los Angeles, the Clippers will go with a true split between Sam Cassell and Brevin Knight. Their respective values will depend largely on who is hurt less. And that's a tough call given their respective injury histories. I like Knight slightly better because he's shown the ability to produce near-dominant assist and steal numbers in his previous time-share in Charlotte.

Tier 7

34. Jason Williams, Heat 35. Rafer Alston, Rockets 36. Steve Blake, Trail Blazers 37. Chris Duhon, Bulls 38. Jarrett Jack, Trail Blazers 39. Sergio Rodriguez, Trail Blazers 40. Earl Watson, Sonics 41. Tyronn Lue, Hawks 42. Speedy Claxton, Hawks 43. Antonio Daniels, Wizards

If you thought things were confusing in Houston and Seattle, just take a look at Portland's logjam. Not only do they have three capable floor leaders, but they also have too many shooting guards to slide any of their point guards over to the 2. Unless we get confirmation that one of the three will earn 30-plus minutes per night (which probably won't happen), I'll be staying far away from this situation on draft day.

Alston could easily be ranked much higher than this, but his off-court problems are pushing him further and further down in the rankings. The Rockets have way too many players ready to take his spot, so unless he cleans up his act or is traded, I don't see him having much fantasy value this season.

The Jason Williams/Smush Parker preseason position battle won't actually be much of a battle. J-Will is the starter when healthy, while Smush will come off the bench. Smush, however, may end up earning more minutes because the Heat will try to preserve J-Will's erratic health. Both will be solid role players for their abilities to hit 3s and create steals.

So there you have it, an initial look at the fantasy point guard landscape. Rankings this early in the season are always up for debate. So, whether you think I'm brilliant, or an idiot, let's hear it.

Brian McKitish is a fantasy baseball and basketball analyst for TalentedMrRoto.com and ESPN.com. He can be reached at Littlemac@TalentedMrRoto.com.

 

I messed up the bolded text in the previous post. Sorry here you go!