Xenon is absolutely correct. The five dynamic models are incredibly important to forecast tracking. In fact, the NHC uses them to come up with its official track, which is remarkably accurate. That's an average of 280 miles off at 120 hours. When you consider how inaccurate the five day forecasts put out by most weather casters are just in terms of rain vs. sun, hot vs. cold, etc., the ability to forecast the track of a hurricane with this degree of accuracy is pretty amazing. At this point, no one from the Texas/Louisiana border to south central Mexico is out of the woods, but the convergence of the track models over the last day is a positive sign that the forecasts are becoming more accurate - not surprising since we've gotten closer to landfall. If you look at the spread of the furthest outliers in the five models, it's landfall along the Gulf Coast runs from south central Texas to central Mexico. I'm guessing that is around, what, 200 miles? Those models are utilized for a reason.
Here's something I just learned. I'll admit I was never much of a map person. I tend to prefer written directions, but I've gotten better with them over the years. One thing that always threw me was distance and how best to gauge it on a map. I learned today that the distance between two lines of latitude is just over 69 miles. I was trying to measure the distance between the furthest outliers of the major hurricane models' projected landfall along the Gulf Coast but was having a hard time finding a models map with a legend on it. After learning this, it's pretty easy to determine that the furthest north and south outliers (GFDL and NOGAPS, respectively) are between 400 and 450 miles apart, but, if you take the GFDL and HWRF (the NOGAPS is WELL to the south of all the models) and compare them, it's between 250 and 300 miles with the NHC official track just slightly south of the center between those two. You learn something new every day I guess.
So what do you think....is it still a good idea to stock up today on water, batteries, etc...or are we pretty much out of the woods?
Do you know where the first posting of that online is? I found every other model somewhere, but not that one.
I've lost nearly all my old hurricane links and rely on other folks posting it. They usually post it within seconds of its release, so it works just as well. Not really much changed. It is looking better and better for us though. The ULL which is moving Dean a bit north of track currently is supposed to outrun Dean and allow the ridge to build back in and then direct westward back on course and into northern Mexico/South Tx. But, still that is a long way out and there has been no official mention of what Erin's remnants will have on Dean's track as it nears the coast. 498 WHXX04 KWBC 181726 CHGQLM ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR HURRICANE DEAN 04L INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 18 DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECAST STORM POSITION HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT) 0 15.4 67.9 280./14.0 6 15.9 69.3 287./14.6 12 16.1 70.8 281./14.1 18 16.6 72.4 286./16.0 24 17.2 74.1 290./17.5 30 17.9 75.8 291./18.0 36 18.3 77.8 283./19.3 42 18.7 79.7 282./17.9 48 19.3 81.4 289./17.3 54 19.9 83.2 286./17.7 60 20.5 84.9 291./17.5 66 21.0 86.7 285./17.6 72 21.7 88.3 293./16.4 78 22.5 89.9 297./17.0 84 23.4 91.6 298./17.1 90 24.2 93.2 298./17.3 96 25.2 94.7 304./16.9 102 26.2 96.4 300./17.7 108 27.1 97.8 305./15.9 114 28.1 99.2 303./15.9 120 29.0 100.7 300./16.0 126 29.7 102.2 297./14.3
Very true. I see the South Florida graphic seems to be updated the most quickly and I saw that it is about the same for the GFDL. Like you said, good news but we are WAY off from home free. To be honest, I find my thoughts returning to the people in Jamaica and Haiti a lot this morning. Haiti is almost completely deforested and has gone from a rainforest to a virtual desert island. Jamaica hasn't been hit by a storm this large in over a century. I really feel for them.
Wow, I can't help but notice the similarities between Dean and hurricane Allen (1980) and hurricane Gilbert (1988). In terms of intensity and track they are all almost identical. Allen http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Allen Gilbert http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Gilbert
I just heard on the Weather Channel that they'll be doing live updates from Jamaica tomorrow morning with Jim Cantore !!! Are they crazy? That's gotta be life threatning. I sure hope Jim Cantore will be ok, but I alwyas enjoy live updates from hurricanes. Actually one of the things that I've always wanted to do is to go hurricane hunting when I get older.
Cantore is a lunatic. He's all roided up and acts like a freaking maniac in storms. I remember way back when he was a legitimate weather forecaster and not some sideshow act standing in 100mph winds.
Damn, my work just paged me. They want every employee to call in to the comm center to say if we are available for Monday because of evacuees. Sounds like Katrina all over again. Oh well....$$$$
