Jeff, Thanks for the reply, but I demand you go to sleep. The hurricane will not hit until next week. You can get up and track your charts in the morning. In fact, wake up and go see Superbad tomorrow although I know you won't be able to concentrate on the movie knowing Houston will not exist after Wednesday.
Thanks Jeff and All for my 1 stop hurricane update. This board has it all. Try not to forget that we may not know where it's going hit but we do know it's going to pound someone. It looks like Jamaica is going to be the first one to take a huge hit.
Headin' south. GFDL is pulled south as well, and it's the only model indicating anything close enough to really affect us significantly.
I had to get up and check the reports this morning. It seems like the consensus is becoming much more tightly clustered for really the first time with even the GFDL pulling southward and pushing Dean across the Yucatan. The second landfall is also much more tightly packed between north central Mexico and south Texas between Brownsville and Corpus. Now, I'm going back to bed.
luckily i'll be out of town working when this hits. if it even sniffs houston, the traffic will be insane.
One thing's for sure...life is going to SUCK for whomever this storm hits right now. God bless those poor people.
Anyone else finding it difficult to get the rest of your family taking this storm as serious as you are. After Rita most of my family would rather sit at home and ride any type of storm out then sit in traffic or evacuate at all. Thanks Jeff for keeping us up to date on everything I agree with the consensus that its better getting info here at the BBS.
It's probably not worth traveling to Austin or Dallas to run from the storm. The best thing is going further inland like NW Houston, or finding an area with very few mature trees and doesn't flood alot. The 2nd floor of a motel would be good or a subdivision that's only 20 years old. The trees haven't had enough time to grow as big and heavy. If they were to fall, it would be minor damage. I am going from the Southeast Houston to my brother's on the NW side over by the beltway and 249, 2 days before the storm hits. It's not worth it to travel the day before and to travel far. Even though he is much further inland than me, it's still dangerous. There are several mature trees in the area, that can fall on top of the house.
and exactly how accurate were the models for rita and katrina 4 or 5 days before landfall? i'd venture to say not very.
I remember. That's why I'm not counting my chickens just yet. IIRC, all but one of the tracking models had Rita hitting Houston squarely a few days before landfall. The other one said it would hit Beaumont/Port Arthur.
yeah, not very accurate at all. People who put alto of emphasis on models this early out are fooling themselves imo.
by sunday night/monday morning, we'll have a pretty good idea. but no one is saying these things are 100% accurate...they just give us a good idea.
These computer models are tools used by the best forecasters out there. How silly would it be for the NHC to totally discount them because they may be off 100 miles or so 4 days out? Do you think that the best forecasters in the world can tell you where a landfall will be within 100 miles 4 days out? If you do you are fooling yourself. To discount the computer models is stupid. No one is saying that they are 100% accurate but when one of them points to you, you had better take notice.
