The Energy Crash

I wrote this earlier in the year to inform a few of my friends about peak oil. Hope this is informative!

<b>1.) The Beginning:</b>

In the past sixty years, our population has increased astronomically. In the 1950s, the population of the planet was close to 2.5 Billion. [1] Today, in 2007, it's more than 6.5 Billion. [1]

The population boom of the sixties also coincided with the Green Revolution, in which massive advances in agricultural technology were made. New strains of grains, growing methods, chemical fertilizers, and pesticides were used. [2]

Part of the reason why we've been able to support this population boom, and increase our population by 4 Billion in the past 60 years is due to our ability to grow more food. Soil has merely become the sponge on which chemical fertilizer is dumped. [2]

In order to create this fertilizer, we must use natural gas (a finite resource), to produce the nitrogen, phosphorous, and potassium. This in turn is injected into the soil, allowing larger yields of crops than nature would regularly allow. [3]

<b>2.) What's Peak Oil?</b>

The problem lies in our dependency on fossil fuels—coal, fuel oil, or natural gas—all finite resources. After millions of years, fossilized organic matter is exposed to immense temperature and pressure under the Earth's surface. Eventually, this matter is converted into coal, oil, or natural gas. [4]

Approximately 79.6% of the energy produced in the entire world today comes from fossil fuels. [4]

In the 1950s, Marion King Hubbert, a geologist for Shell Oil realized that the production of oil, and other natural resources followed a bell curve. [5] He successfully estimated that the U.S. production of oil would decline between 1965 and 1970. [5] In addition, he estimated that the world production of oil would also peak. [5] ASPO, or the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, estimates that Peak Oil will occur globally in the year 2010. [5] However, many analysts believe the world has already peaked.

"There are currently 98 oil producing countries in the world, of which 64 are thought to have passed their geologically imposed production peak, and of those 60 are in terminal production decline." [6]

This graph indicates that we are very close, if not already peaking in global oil production:

<img src="http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/4842/600pxhubbertpeakoilplotqa0.jpg">
<b>3.) So what's the problem?</b>

The problem is simple:

"The price of standard crude oil on NYMEX was under $25/barrel in September 2003, but by August 11, 2005, it had risen to over $60/barrel, and out at a record price of $78.40 per barrel on July 13, 2006." [7]

In the span of 3 years, the price of oil has increased by more than 200%.

Matthew R. Simmons, chairman and CEO of Simmons & Company International, is a prominent oil-industry insider and one of the world's leading experts on the topic of Peak Oil. In his previous capacity, he served as energy adviser to U.S. President George W. Bush. He claims that by the year 2010, the price of a barrel of oil will reach $200, approximately 3 times the cost it is today. [8]

Imagine paying 8 dollars a gallon at the pump. Is it even thinkable?

According to Matthew Simmons, in the past few years, oil companies have invested approximately twice they have in the past into research and development, and have found fewer and fewer reserves. In fact, reserve growth is already starting to decline. [9]

However, at the same time, the consumption, and demand for oil is higher than ever. [9] <b>World energy consumption is projected to increase by 71 percent from 2003 to 2030, and we're running out of energy resources! 80% of our energy on Planet Earth comes from Coal, Natural Gas, and Oil!</b> [10]

The problem isn't the complete depletion of oil. The problem is that supply can't possibly meet demand. By the year 2050, the population of the world will be an estimated 9.4 Billion. [11] Without the natural gas, coal, and oil required to produce the food, transport human beings and commodities, and power our industries, <b>we're looking at an energy crash</b>.

<img src="http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/Pictures/EnergyCurveHistory3_op_800x203.jpg">

<b>4.) What does this have to do with me?</b>

Well, in essence, everything. During the summer of 2003, the Northeast had an energy blackout caused by overuse of fans and air conditioners at a time in which industry was still powering it's industrial machines. [12]

In the span of three days, a great amount of infrastructure within the Northeastern cities fell apart:

1. Power Generation
Because of the over-use of the energy grid, there was no electricity until the grid could be repaired. [12]

2. Water
Some areas lost water pressure because pumps didn't have power. This loss of pressure caused potential contamination of the water supply. [12]

3. Transportation
Many public transportation systems including the light rails, trains, and air flight were unavailable. [12]

"Many gas stations were unable to pump fuel due to lack of electricity. In North Bay, Ontario, for instance, a long line of transport trucks was held up, unable to go further west to Manitoba without refueling. In some cities, traffic problems were compounded by motorists who simply drove until their cars ran out of gas on the highway." [12]

4. Communications
Cell phones were rendered useless along with cable television, and internet access. [12]

5. Lack of Food and Money
In the span of three days, much of the food found in supermarkets were bought, leaving empty shelves. In addition, people were unable to withdraw money from bank ATM machines.

The Northeastern blackout only occurred for 3 days, but imagine this happening in your town on a regular basis after the energy crash. What will you do to survive?

<b>5.) If Peak Oil, and an impending energy crash is so inevitable, why isn't anyone doing something about it? Alternatives energy sources?</b>

Matt Savinar, the author of this website explains it much more eloquently than I ever could, so read: <a href="http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/">www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/</a>

<b> 6.) Final Conclusions</b>

I'll leave any conclusions up to you. But for me, the question isn't <b>if</b> the energy crash will happen, it's <b><i>when</i></b>.

Richard Rainwater, a multi-billionaire energy investor has been preparing for Peak Oil for several years:

<a href="http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2005/12/26/8364646/">money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2005/12/26/8364646/</a>

When multi-billionaires start creating their own self-sustaining ranches to survive Peak Oil, shouldn't you be scared?

<b>Primary Sources:</b>
1. <a href="http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/worldpop.html">www.census.gov/ipc/www/worldpop.html</a>
2. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Revolution">en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Revolution</a>
3. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fertilizer">en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fertilizer</a>
4. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fossil_fuel">en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fossil_fuel</a>
5. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubbert_peak_theory">en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubbert_peak_theory</a>
6. <a href="http://www.lastoilshock.com/map.html">www.lastoilshock.com/map.html</a>
7. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_price_increases_of_2004-2006">en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_price_increases_of_2004-2006</a>
8. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matthew_Simmons">en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matthew_Simmons</a>
9. <a href="http://cogsci.ucsd.edu/~sereno/oil07.pdf">cogsci.ucsd.edu/~sereno/oil07.pdf</a>
10. <a href="http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/world.html">www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/world.html</a>
11. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population">en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population</a>
12. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_North_America_blackout">en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_North_America_blackout</a>

I know some of you feel that Wikipedia is unreliable, so I'm posting additional resource links for those who are interested. Some of these deny Peak Oil, and they're worth reading to see opposing viewpoints.

<b>Peak Oil Resources:</b>
1. <a href="http://lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/">lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/</a>
2. <a href="http://cogsci.ucsd.edu/~sereno/oil07.pdf">cogsci.ucsd.edu/~sereno/oil07.pdf</a>
3. <a href="http://www.theoildrum.com/">www.theoildrum.com/</a>
4. <a href="http://www.energybulletin.net/">www.energybulletin.net/</a>
5. <a href="http://dieoff.org/">dieoff.org/</a>
6. <a href="http://www.peak-oil-crisis.com/">www.peak-oil-crisis.com/</a>
7. <a href="http://www.uctv.tv/schedule3.asp?keyword=12254">www.uctv.tv/schedule3.asp?keyword=12254</a>

Note: theoildrum.com has a list of excellent resource sites on its sidebar.

<b>Peak Oil Articles:</b>
1. <a href="http://pr.caltech.edu/periodicals/CaltechNews/articles/v38/oil.html">pr.caltech.edu/periodicals/CaltechNews/articles/v38/oil.html</a>
2. <a href="http://www.energybulletin.net/22522.html">www.energybulletin.net/22522.html</a>
3. <a href="http://www.energybulletin.net/22442.html">www.energybulletin.net/22442.html</a>

If you do a google search on "peak oil," you'll find 9.4 million hits.

<b>Articles denying Peak Oil:</b>
1. <a href="http://www.prisonplanet.com/archives/peak_oil/index.htm">www.prisonplanet.com/archives/peak_oil/index.htm</a>
2. <a href="http://www.newswithviews.com/Monteith/stanley.htm">www.newswithviews.com/Monteith/stanley.htm</a>
3. <a href="http://www.runet.edu/~wkovarik/oil/6oilbiblio.html">www.runet.edu/~wkovarik/oil/6oilbiblio.html</a>

Do a google search on "peak oil myth," or "peak oil fallacy."

<b>In PDF Format:</b> <a href="http://ieng9.ucsd.edu/~shw003/files/The_Energy_Crash.pdf">ieng9.ucsd.edu/~shw003/files/The_Energy_Crash.pdf</a>

 

Well, Hubbert actually predicted that we'd hit peak oil by the year 2000. However, because of the 1970s oil embargoes, energy analysts believe we're either at the peak or will hit it very soon. And the problem isn't as simple as "running out."


Oil production actually isn't abiotic. Crude oil is called a fossil fuel for a meaningful reason--it's the fossilized remains of organic material from hundreds of millions of years ago. In a sense it is "naturally replenished" but only if you want to wait around for that much time.

http://www.theoildrum.com/tag/tverberg_book