huh? http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=102114 the picture links are busted, but yeah... rita sure did flood many a home
Oh sorry, I wasn't clear, I was speaking of a particular home. Were the paths so different from each other that a Category 2 doesn't affect a home in Deer Park, but a tropical depression does? Or did the storm just sit over us?
This storm has been a very wet, relatively slow-moving depression that came in to our south and spread across the entire southern part of the state. Rita, on the other hand, had most of its rain and wind to the east and moved very quickly northward out of the area. In all tropical storms (hurricanes or otherwise), the east and northeast portion of the storm is considered the wet side meaning that side gets the bulk of the rain. For Rita, we were on the dry side AND Rita moved quickly through the area. Erin was to our south putting us on the wet side (folks in Brownsville didn't get much rain because they were on the dry side) and it has moved slowly breaking up as it moves.
You are correct. Here is the latest updated graphic from Wunderground. This may change since I'm linking directly to their image, but this was at 5pm with the afternoon run of the GFDL. I kinda thought this might happen as the new data comes in from the survey missions. Also, it should be noted that the NWRF probably has run, but the graphics aren't up yet. My guess is that it also slides south as it was south of the GFDL last time and they have similar algorithms. In addition, the UKMET now has a far less drastic northwesterly turn after the storm re-emerges in the Gulf. The GFS is also a little further south and the NOGAPS is unchanged. No guarantees, but I'd be willing to bet we see the model consensus continue to nudge just slightly south over the next couple advisories. I still believe the GFS has had it right with a move across the Yucatan and a second landfall in northern Mexico. But, I wouldn't put money on it at this point.
Please keep going south. Pretty damn please. And I'm also sorry for cursing so much today Baby Jesus, but that 2 1/2 hour ride home on Beltway 8 through Pasadena was excruciating.
Looking at the 18z run of the HWRF, it has also moved south following the trend of the GFDL. Just as it was further south of GFDL previously, it still is moving the storm over the north central Yucatan, but moving it much more slowly. Interestingly, it shows only a marginal decrease in strength while the storm is over land. That seems extremely unrealistic given all of the other models reduce the storm significantly. Unfortunately, the GFDL re-intensifies Dean in the Gulf to a cat 4 prior to landfall between Corpus and Freeport with 150mph winds. The GFDL and the UKMET are the only two models still insisting on a sharp northwesterly turn in the Gulf. More to come in a couple hours.
If Dean stays a tightly compact storm, what would the above mean to the Houston area if it goes in between Corpus and Freeport?
Not sure where that is. A lot will depend on your proximity to the coastline and where the storm makes landfall.
This Saturday, you should be fine. Next Saturday, it depends on where the storm makes landfall as to whether the course will be open or not.
A lot will depend on where the storm lands and which direction it is traveling when it comes on shore. For example, if it lands and Freeport and comes north/northeast, it will run the eye right through here and give us a helluva storm. However, if it moves west/northwest, it won't be as bad. This is a storm that will likely have hurricane force winds extending out 100 miles from the center, so we'll probably get a lot of rain and some pretty nasty wind, maybe as much as cat 1 with gusts higher, but this with an eye that size, the brunt of the impact will be 50 miles from the center in any direction.
A few miles past Cypress on 290. I would be evacuating there from Clear Lake. I was in Nacogdoches for Rita and it ended up looking like a war zone. I'm just trying to decide between going all the way back to Nacogdoches or just Cypress if things get bad. One thing I like about Fairfield is that it's pretty new and there are no big trees.
Well, it's a tricky thing to forecast wind speed. You'll no doubt be safe there inside a house. But, it could be ugly for a while depending on where the storm goes on land. If it goes on around the central Texas coast, it will be wet and windy, but not serious. In fact, if it goes in there, I doubt they will evacuate Clear Lake or any areas other than low lying places that flood with high tides.
As I suspected, the NHC's 11pm (EST) update nudges the forecast track south and slows it slightly. As the models have come into very good agreement for the 3-4 day period, it would seem that there is good confidence in the track. The difference in the bend to the north after that 4th day appears to be because of how the models deal with a low pressure system over the Bahamas. Most of the models don't consider it a significant element, however the GFDL and UKMET are still giving it some credence though less as each model run passes. There is a high pressure ridge moving westward about the same speed as Dean that is keeping Dean on a more westerly track and it would seem this will continue, at the very least, until the storm reaches the Yucatan. It's still way too early to predict what will happen in the Gulf, but it is notable that Houston is now on the furthest northern edge of the dreaded cone of uncertainty.
