Looks like it will be an interesting two weeks. It will probably turn out to be nothing, but you never know. Spoiler
The latest depression is most definitely one to watch. If it manages to navigate the Caribbean, it is far enough south that it could end up in the southern Gulf, which would not be good for us. This is also going to have a lot of time to develop and should ultimately be a major hurricane assuming it doesn't have long interactions with land (i.e. Cuba, Yucatan).
Oh, and in case you weren't paying attention, we'll likely have a tropical depression in the Gulf tomorrow that could strike south Texas as a tropical storm on Wednesday. From Jeff Masters Wunderblog: Gulf of Mexico disturbance a threat to Texas and Mexico Thunderstorm activity in association with a tropical wave interacting with a upper-level low pressure system over the Western Caribbean has gotten better organized this morning. This disturbance has been labeled "Invest 91L" by NHC this morning, and the preliminary model tracks (Figure 2) show that 91L is expected to move west-northwest into the Gulf of Mexico Tuesday and Wednesday. An upper-level low currently spinning over the Gulf of Mexico is bringing 10-20 knots of shear over the Gulf. This upper-level low is moving steadily westward, and should exit the Gulf by Wednesday, allowing wind shear over the Gulf to drop below 10 knots. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter airplane is scheduled to investigate 91L Tuesday afternoon at 1pm EDT. The 12Z (8am EDT) runs of the GFDL and HWRF models are predicting that a tropical depression could form, and there is plenty of time for one to form. The GFDL predicts landfall on Wednesday afternoon near Corpus Christi as a 50 mph tropical storm. The storm won't have enough time over water to become anything stronger than a 50 mph tropical storm, it appears. Residents along Mexican and Texas Gulf Coast should be prepared for heavy rains from 91L as early as Tuesday night. As for our other friend out in the Atlantic, that looks like the real deal. It's a depression now and will likely increase to a tropical storm or hurricane by the time it reaches the Lesser Antillies this weekend. Model guidance tracks after the third day is divergent so far, but most bring it to the northernmost islands. After that, it gets wacky with some taking it into the Caribbean and others tracking it into the Atlantic and towards the eastern US. One of the better models had it hitting Brownsville in about 12 days last night but the run this morning had it hitting New England. I still think the trough of low pressure that is over the US will cause the storm to move a little more northerly and bring it more towards the Atlantic side of the Caribbean islands ultimately toward Florida or the US east coast, but that is a LONG ways off to speculate at this point.
I know it's too early to predict, but I hope I'm not the only one who laughed at this part. OK, so it's going to hit somewhere between Brownsville and New England. Thanks.
I know, funny isn't it. The GFS has consistently been tracking west through the Caribbean and into the Gulf over the past 2-3 days until today when it started to show more northerly movement. Granted, it's a LONG way off, but the GFS is one of the most reliable models out there. Now that this has been classified by the NHC, all of the other models are starting to weigh in and we're starting to get a clearer picture of the weather patterns over the next few days. The next NHC update will likely track the storm a little more northerly than the last forecast track at 10am as most of the models are now in fairly good agreement with a turn more northerly by day 3-4. The problem is when you start making predictions for 10-12 days out, it gets nuts. There's a point along the path of this storm where it is either going to be pulled more northward or not. If it isn't, it becomes a greater threat to the Gulf coast and Texas. If it is, it becomes a much greater threat to the east coast. We probably won't really have a good idea which scenario will happen until tomorrow or Wednesday. As a result, the long-range forecasting will be, literally, all over the map.
As I suspected, the NHC has pushed the track more to the east though not as much as many of the models suggest fearing they will change again tomorrow. There will need to be 3 or 4 runs of each model consistently showing the northerly turn before that track is more certain, but only the GFS has been slow to anticipate the turn while the others have had it for a couple runs already. We'll know a lot more this time tomorrow. That low pressure center moving into the Gulf is going to create an awful lot of rain for the southern part of Texas where they need it. Hopefully, it will give us a little rain as well.
That could be followed up by the giant twister that wipes out the midwest, the killer earthquake that drops California into the Pacific and the Super Volcano that destroys everything west of the Mississippi. If we're REALLY lucky, that would just be a precursor to the asteroid that wipes out all life on earth as we know it. Did I leave anything out?
Yes you have actually. The technology that we have to move, weaken, or accidentally strengthen a hurricane.
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/5052591.html Tropical Storm Dean forms in open Atlantic Associated Press MIAMI — Tropical Storm Dean formed in the open Atlantic today, but remained far from land, forecasters said. At 10 a.m. CDT, the storm was centered about 1,490 miles east of the Lesser Antilles in the Caribbean, about halfway across the ocean from Africa, according to the National Hurricane Center. It had top sustained winds of 40 mph, just above the threshold to be a named storm. Dean was moving over increasingly warmer waters, where atmospheric conditions could create a favorable environment for intensification into a hurricane by Friday, forecasters said. It was cruising west at about 23 mph. Forecasters said it is too early to tell where Dean will go. Hurricanes sustain winds of at least 74 mph. Hurricane forecasters expect this year's Atlantic hurricane season to be busier than average. Last week, they said up to 16 tropical storms are likely to form, with nine strengthening into hurricanes. The season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, but August typically marks the start of the most active period. Ten tropical storms developed in the Atlantic last year, but only two made landfall in the United States.
The Gulf disturbance has really gathered steam today. I bet by the evening news it will be a TS. It could make for a very wet weekend.
If it's supposed to hit the coast tomorrow I'd SERIOUSLY hope it's gone by the weekend. Four days of tropical rains would be a bit much.
