All good points, especially about the press needing to bash him a little bit because they don't understand stats like he does and don't want to be embarassed. I hadn't thought about him trying to alter his demeanor to keep put people at ease, but you may be right. I'm sure he's had to deal with a lot of sports guys being reluctant to accept his new ideas over the years, so it would make sense to come off as a little more low key.
I miss Gater-I used to hate him ( I do not hate him anymore)-but always respected him He is one of the smartest posters on this board. Carl Hererra- You are a perceptive analyst IMHO- I have high hopes for Morey- esp. since he has declared that weight of decisions comes from basketball savvy- talent- trather than pure moneyball I look forward to Gater coming back- and your continued analysis- Carl Hererra
I still think the MJ/JHo trade was a continuation of the JVG era started, but not consumated, before the trade deadline. I am not sure at all that it is a move that RA or DM would necessarily make now. Of course, I don't think they expected Stevie to fall into their laps for cheap.
Gater still comes. He just lurks more. He's probably just bored with offseason. Hopefully, he'll post more often when the season starts. http://bbs.clutchfans.net/member.php?u=1630
This thread may be just a rehash of things already discussed, but things have been so slow and boring lately since we signed Francis I still welcome Hayesfan posting this in a new thread. I know Steve and MJ are similar, but I still send J-ho to the wolves if I get the chance. J-ho stepped up last season when Yao got hurt but to me his skills are approaching the bottom of the bucket fast and we still owed the guy a lot of money. MJ is a more talented player at a spot we needed help in and If Scola and Butler both are busts they will still give you at least what we lost in J-ho.
You can't just MAKE talent work. you can have all the talent in the world and still lose. Look at Team USA 4-5 years ago. they had all the talent in the world but lost to teams with great teamwork. Guys like Francis and James have always been "me" type players. They've never had great teamwork with anyone besides themselves. Thats why they've been cast away so much. I doubt they'll have take us over the hump too.
I agree, talent alone will not get the job done. The thing is we have a few glue guys on the team already. Battier is a team player, and I believe Scola will be the same type of big man. T-mac is a very talented player but he's also an unselfish player who sets up his teammates. The same can be said about Yao. MJ and Francis have both been unhappy since leaving the Rockets. I think they both will make the changes necessary to be good team players. They both should be more mature and running out of time to win a title, so they should be willing to put the team first this time around.
1. About GATER: While I do agree that purely statistical analysis is not how you run a basketball team and I do agree that Morey's philosophy has a significant quantitative component-- more, probably, than most other GMs, I do believe that GATER misunderstands what Morey is about. First, I doubt that Morey uses a purely statistical analysis in running the team. He said so himself over and over again, more recently, I believe, at the either the Scola or the Francis press conference when he mentioned that this is a "people business" and you can't just look at numbers alone. Next, I doubt the statistical component of Morey's methods are anything as simplistic as those presented by any of us here, by 82games.com, by draftexpress.com, or any other readily available websites. In fact, it's part of Morey's job that his methods, like any trade secret, are kept confidential. I think GATER was arguing against a caricature of "moneyball" created in his mind rather than Morey's actual methods. Look, Morey has said/demonstrated that he liked Battier, Hayes, Scola, and Francis... four completely different guys and it's difficult to account for his liking for all 4 of them from a simplistic method based on a caricature of moneyball. 2. I do believe that analytic/quantitative/statistical methods are helpful in looking at NBA rosters. It gives you a different perspective and prevent you fromdoing things such as overpaying for guys who have great combine numbers and/or fantasy stats, but don't make their team any better when they are on the court. 3. No one knows how Morey's experiments will play out. He's shown the ability to make several seemingly impact additions quickly and cheaply... now let's see if he knows how to make subtractions since the team has a ton of guaranteed contracts. 4. At the moment, if Morey reminds me of anyone, it's Isiah Thomas-- don't care what anyone thinks, keep on adding talent to his team, but hopefully Morey's vision is more coherent, and we know for sure he doesn't have James Dolan as a bad contract enabler.
You make an interesting point. The Knicks approach about 3 years ago was very very reminiscent of this year's offseason for us. Isiah brought in a heralded, proven winner in Larry Brown, whom everyone was thrilled about. Man is it funny in retrospect. They brought in a fresh shift of 'talent' in sf3, Trevor Ariza, Malik Rose, Jalen Rose, Mo Taylor and PENNY HARDAWAY. The only success stories are Frye and Lee. The pivotal difference in the Rocket's stockpiling and that of Isiah's is that Les cares about the luxury tax, whereas Dolan allowed Thomas to throw his money away in hopes of buying a winning team. The Rocket's moves have all been low-risk (Scola, Francis), with JHO's departure the only medium-risk move. Of course that is not to say the Rockets are parallell in any way to that diseased franchise. We of course have a better foundation to build on than stephon marbury.
Kind of rambling, and inconclusive. Just the thoughts many already have with not enough insight, thought or conclusion to be worth the effort to read or write it.
GATER is one of the biggest opponents of the Battier trade. And that trade is supposed to be Morey's first signature move. I guess that seals GATER's dislike of Morey's method, whatever it is. (I am just guessing, not pretending to speak for him.) The only way to validate GATER's opinion on this is to see in a couple of years how Rudy Gay turns out. If Gay is no more than an average player on a poor team and Battier continues to be a significant part of a successful Rockets team, then the trade was a good move. If Gay turns out to be a stud, then it sort of confirms GATER's suspicion of "moneyball" applied to basketball. Every GM wants to stockpile talent. The difference between Isiah and Morey is how much you pay to acquire talent. Isiah is like the wife of a billionaire husband who allows her to spend whatever money on whatever she wants. Morey is like a frugal housewife who constantly checks out the clearance racks and clips coupons for everything she buys.
1. Given that the verdict on Rudy's career is far from clear right now, the vitriol with with GATER attacked Morey was premature. In fact, since there are still 4 years left on Battier's contract, rendering a verdict on how the Rockets end of the deal works out is also premature. 2. Presuming to know Morey's methods based on one trade was not warranted. Morey's methods doesn't just yield Battier-type players, as GATER's posts tend to caricature it as. 3. Every GM wants to add talent, but not every GM goes about it as aggressively as Morey and Isiah, and not every GM ignore the public opinion on their moves as much as Isiah and Morey (remember how Renaldo Balkman pick got booed?) Bill Simmons wrote a good article about how many of the GMs have no guts to gamble during this past season. 4. I think the main difference between MOrey and Thomas, besides the budget isue and their evaluation methods-- whatever they may be, was the fact that Morey started off with two legitimate superstars in Yao and McGrady and Isiah did not. Remember, Morey took over a 52 win team, Isiah took over Layden's mess. Isiah and Morey both seem to have gone after decent second-tier above avg. or even near-star talent, but without a good base, these talent don't do Isiah much.. Isiah's mistake is that he thought he could turn his grabbag of decent talents into a real star or two, but that's not how the market works... teams RARELY rid of their true superstars.. best he managed to get are Marbury, Curry.. and now Randolph (I'm very curiouis to see how Zach works out with the rest of the team, though).
That doesn't prove anything. Morey said that he considered Gay a high-risk, high-reward player. It's possible that Gay turns out to be a very good player eventually, but its also possible that he doesn't help you win at all the first couple years (maybe more). Based on his performance last season, I think its obvious we wouldn't have won as many games with him (and Swift) instead of Battier. And I expect Battier continues to be the more productive player in the coming season. Considering that the Rockets have been in "win now" mode the last couple years, that alone justifies the trade.
Gater, (I know you are out there lurking ) The sure sign of the impact you make in a forum is when a thread evolves into an analysis of why you post what you do. and for the rookies panning the posting of this blog post layoff the thread-starter, in an off-season that can get boring, sometimes its fun to pan/agree with something as simple as a blog that looks to be taken straight from the pages of this forum. If it was a newspaper reporter writing that, yall would be crowing about how much influence this forum has in writer's articles. that being said, I pretty much agree with Carl in this one.
Herrera He also, in a more positive frame, reminds me of Mark Cuban who kept stockpiling talent and eventually traded some of it to assemble the present contending team. Francis will turn into our Stackhouse. This is the way to go. We essentially have last year's team plus three new impact players --Francis, Scola, James (and I count Bonzi, but subtract Howard, who was still important). If all goes reasonably well with our new players, in a year or two we may have to sign and trade some talent to rebalance. At least we we will no longer say that we have nothing to trade with. That being said, I think that it would be counterproductive and also so unfair to trade Francis, Bonzi or Mike James given the circumstances. I could still see trading Rafer, Head, or both. The trades and signings we made are for now and the future. So much better than just seeming to do all for the present year.
I think it is possible to build a good, realistic team based primarily on statistics. As long as the right statistics are given the right emphasis. I mean, honestly, what basketball experience does Morey have? His approach is a business approach. He will be successful. Reading basketball skill and predicting production are near impossible to do reliably, but if anyone can do it, it's Morey. Morey's approach is going to be the best for this team, mark my words. I liked him from the start. I never b****ed about Brooks or not signing all those overpaid Free Agents. He's going to do wonders with our roster and in future drafts. Damn, I need some nachos and a cheeseburger...
