Hollinger Statistical Analysis Applied to Aaron Brooks

The Pure point ratio for their last year in college:

Law = 2.14
Conley = 5.9
Brooks = .80
Stuckey = .90
Crittenton = (-1.3)
Cook = (-3.81)
Almond = (-7.89)
Affalo = (-1.46)


So I would say he's in the mid range on this. Probably a neutral maybe a half a point in your analysis??

Edit: obviously I calculated something wrong, because my numbers don't match Hollinger's.. lemme try again and see if I can get it right

Edit 2: I took only their last year, Hollinger apparently took their College careers... which would ya rather have for the analysis?

 

Hollinger himself didn't rank brooks in the top 30 collegiate players in this years draft.

 

Nice, I hope Brooks turns out to be better then what everybody expects.

 

Skinner would make some sense. His highest numbers were in Sac when Adelman was the coach. He would def be an upgrade over Hayes, still would like to see a young athlete at the 4 position though.

 

Since when did Portland become a smart team?
They have been a lottery team the past four years ....
on the contrary the smart teams passed on them!

Detroit twice, Phoenix once, San Antonio twice... these are
the teams that have been perennial playoff teams! Yet not
one of these teams picked Fazekas or McRoberts.

 

Plus, those same three great franchises (Detroit, San Antonio and Phoenix) were rumored to be very interested in Brooks at #27, #28 and #29, respectively.

While I'm not particularly ecstatic about the Rockets' selection of Brooks at #26 (while I knew he was one of the best 10 players in college basketball last year, I just wrote him off due to his size), he was not a major reach at #26. People keep citing various mock drafts that had Brooks going in the early to mid second round. Well, that was in large part because picks 20-45 were all similarly rated players. For one, the mock draft on NBA Draft.net had several iterations showing Brooks going to Detroit, San Antonio and Phoenix at the picks listed above. How, then, is it a "reach" to take him at #26.

Also, let's get one thing straight. Daryl Morey has said all along that (a) whoever they took at #26 (regardless of position) was unlikely to contribute much next season; (b) the Rockets would take who they believed was the best available player, regardless of position; and, most importantly (c) the team planned to address the PF position via trade and/or free agency.

Look around the league. How many teams, especially playoff teams, typically use their late first round picks to address their starting PF spot? Of those (if any), how many go into the draft with the INTENTION of doing so? None.

The Rockets took the guy (again, regardless of position) who they believed was the best available player. Even better, they deprived other contenders of one of (if not THE) player they were targeting. This was a move made for the LONG TERM. Those same people who are still whining about the Battier trade last year and how it was a short-sighted move should at least take some solace that the franchise still believes in planning for the long haul.

 

Sweet!

 

177 ppg! I'd take Brooks over Oden in a heart beat!

 

177 ppg? Man, what a steal! Hopefully he can score as much as Tony Parker and his 255 points in that one game.

 

I'm sure Steve Nash, Chauncy Billups and Tim Duncan were crying themselves to sleep over not getting Aaron Brooks.

 

You're right. The Spurs are a great team that couldn't possibly have any use for a PG in the late first round. Any player that their front office likes that late in the draft is probably worthless anyway.

Sincerly,
Tony Parker

 

very good analysis, thank you.

 

Wonder how Novak stacks up in the Hollinger Statistics. In other words...is there any hope for Novak.

 

Mr. Clutch, excellent thread! Makes me a little less unhappy we drafted Brooks

 

He rated Chuck Hayes at 443.9 pts and 30th overall among collegians, which would put him in the early 2nd round(when Intl players are included). He is rated even with Turiaf 442.7 pts. Hayes was a good undrafted pickup.


Luther Head is 419.7 pts, which is an early 2nd round pick, but went in the 1st round. Many fans wanted Simien at this pick. He is not mentioned in the article. Simien was constantly injured in college, so the sample size may be too small.

As for Novak, He is not mentioned at all.

Hollinger says his results below 500 pts are flakey. There are still some rotation bench players missed in the low 400s, and many busts in the mid 400s.

 

You could still run the numbers on Novak from college.

 

The mistake he made was taking his guy too early. He could have taken brooks with the 31st pick and then taken Splitter with the 26th or something.

 

Phoenix was going to take Brooks at #29. There was also talk that Detroit would have taken him at #27 or possibly San Antonio would have taken him at #28.

Agree with the pick or not, Brooks would NOT have been available at #31. The fact that several GMs picking at the end of the first round liked Brooks where they were picking should say something about how good Brooks is rated by the people whose job it is to build teams, not be people running mock draft websites.

 

Maybe that is true. Those are rumors. Maybe they floated that out there so the Rockets would take him at #26 and they could get the guy they really wanted. It is impossible to say what would have happened, because those other teams never got a chance to take him at 27, 28, or 29. Everyone else seems to think he would have been available in the early to mid-2nd round. Even if they did take him at 27, so what. He is 3rd string on the ROX, so they miss out on a 3rd string PG (who is really a SG in a small PG's body) and still come away with Splitter and Landry (or even better, Splitter and McRoberts, Davis, or Fazekas). Even if the ROX can trade for a PF that is better than any of those guys, they would still be more valuable as backups than Brooks, because we have 5 other guys on the team that can play PG and TMac is one of our primary ball handlers anyway.

 

Take a look at Hilltopper's video of the Brooks/Landry press conference, guys.


In the middle of it, Daryl Morey made the comment that, on their draft chart, Landry was the highest rated big man even at 26.

So, the fact is that even if Brooks was not even in the question and they were just choosing among the PFs (Landry, Splitter, Fazekas, Davis, McRoberts), the guy they wanted was Landry, and not any of the other guys.