Yeah, hindsight is always 20/20. Anyone watch Golden State Pound the Jazz yesterday? Baron Davis played with heart. Just wish T-Mac would have played like that. That one play where he did a 360 in the air and scored..wow.
The thing that I do not understand about JVG is how he evaluates players for efficiency and playing time. There's only 13-14 guys on the roster. How can you keep justifying running a guy out there for 40 minutes when he is shooting 35% from the field and he is taking the 3rd most shots in the team and never put him in the doghouse and how can you leave a guy in the doghouse because he committed some turnovers in the preseason and the first few games of the season while the starter is playing so subpar and never give the guy in the doghouse a 2nd look? It is very plain to me that VSpan is a much more efficient offensive player than Rafer. The difference in VSpan's turnovers if given Rafer's 37 minutes per game amounts to less then 3 points per game lost, providing the team was averaging 1.5 points per shot.......which they weren't. Rafer was simply not good enough to warrant 40 mpg while leaving other younger, developing players on the bench. He did not make that much of a difference. And the bottom line is, he was the weakest link in the playoffs, shooting in the low 30s from the field and from 3, while taking more shots by far than anyone besides Yao and McGrady. He is just not an efficient scorer. And it shouldn't have taken the whole season and a first round playoff exit to figure that out. It should have been obvious by 40 games into the season, that we needed a 3rd scoring option that wasn't named Rafer. But he never even lowered Rafer's minutes and tried anyone else. So, I'd like to know how bad does a guy have to play before JVG even starts to lower his minutes and see if somebody else has something. There is simply no way that any reasonable person can say that VSpan was so horrible that he did not warrant any minutes at all even as bad as Rafer was playing. If VSpan was that bad, the Rox would have cut him because he's worse than me. Think about this for a sec. Who would you rather have on this team, Rafer or Matt Maloney????? Matt Maloney was a more efficient player than Rafer. Don't believe me? Look it up. Less turnovers and better shooter. And Matt Maloney got run out of town for being the weak link. How can JVG justify continuing to give Rafer so many minutes?
For sure but nobody wants to accept the fact that this team and this franchise has been in a pronounced state of drift for well over 10 years now and I lay the blame for this on the owner and the former GM. The drafting has been worse than horrible and for the most part a complete waste. Five trips to the NBA Lotto has netted you 1 player. And don't forget to mention that there has been a plethera of average to below average players acquired either through trade or via free agency passing through for years now yet to read some of the posts here, one would get the impression that the Rockets were the equivalent of the Showtime Lakers only to be undone by a jackass of a head coach.
That got me thinking... So I made a few quick calculations based on their per 48 stats... V-Span's extra turnovers amount to 2.1 pts scored against us more than w/rafer Rafer's extra Assists considering only 59% of our shots are assisted amount to something like 2.01 pts in his favour Rafer also scores 1.8 pts more per 48 A net difference of 5.9 pts... HOWEVER... Rafer has 5.5 more shot attempts than Span. At the team's 1.06 pts per possesion, that's 5.83 points.... With rafer's %s that amounts to about 4.1 pts in his favour... So , Rafer is better by about 4.17 pts per 48 About 3.2 pts in his 37 minutes.... Sure there are other factors (rebounding, fouls committed/gained) that I didnt have time to throw in there but I'm also sure that Span's stats are negatively impacted by his low minutes..... I also didnt look at the difference in defensive stats
The one thing you didn't do in your analysis is compare Rafer's ability to draw fouls and PPS with VSpan's ability to draw fouls and PPS. VSpan is a foul magnet. He gets in the paint and he causes teams to commit fouls against him or he finishes. If he gets Rafer's minutes, and you are giving him his own turnover rate, and you are charging him the difference in shooting percentages, you have to account for the difference in fouls drawn, free throws shot, and PPS. VSpan draws a foul on almost 20% of his shot attempts. Rafer, on the other hand, only draws fouls in 4% of his shot attempts. The disparity is crazy. YOu give VSpan Rafer's shot attempts, only instead of jacking 3s and missing, VSpan is breaking down the defense and getting to the rim, and our offensive efficiency goes through the roof. Not only that, but the synergy of being in the bonus earlier with the most accurate FT shooting big man in the league totally opens us up offensively. The disparity will become much more apparent when VSpan's minutes go up and Rafer's minutes go down. VSpan is a different player. He's a playmaker, a go getter, an aggressive in your face player. I'll take the extra two turnovers and the extra 6 foul shots he gives us. Don't play the turnover game with me. If VSpan is controlling the ball, he is breaking down the D and he is getting Yao the ball in a lot better shape to finish plays instead of having to create all the time. The ball movement speeds up, and easy shots increase. Not to mention, if VSpan is taking it to the rack, McGrady isn't having to handle all the time, and his turnovers go down. If I was a betting man I would be willing to bet almost any amount of money that an offense with VSpan at the point would mean significantly lower turnovers for both Yao and McGrady. VSpan would have about 4 a game, but it would easily be offset by all the extra foul shots we are shooting and us getting easy looks because we are in the bonus with 6 minutes left in every quarter. He's a different type of player. VSpan shoots a free throw every 6 minutes he plays. Rafer shoots a free throw every 17 minutes he plays.
I agree with you, I'm very much in favour of V-Span, I just didnt mention all the positives because a lot of people would dismiss them as assumptions and I wanted to show how close they are....
Well in order to test your hypothesis you need to start him by giving him 10 minutes a game then increasing to 15 and finally 20 minutes to see how that impacts your team. Hmmm when will that ever happen??
I would like the Rockets to try and get Rick Carlisle or Rick Adelman. Adelman is kind of like Sloan in the sense that he has a beautifully flowing offensive system. The only reason Sacramento never got over the hump is because guys like Chris Webber and Doug Christie and Peja choked like dogs in the postseason. He did a great job with Portland getting them to multiple Finals. With the Rockets he could possibly get over the hump. The Rockets need to add more depth, fire power and athleticism off the bench, get a solid PF to anchor things out, and add a 3rd scorer. With a coach like Adelman I think it would benefit the Rockets to get Steve Francis back. He wants to be back the Rockets possibly want him, and I think a coach like Adelman or Carlisle would do wonders for Steve. He wants to get better and I think he realizes this is possibly his last chance.
No. JVG will not hire an ex head coach. He might have his authority or widom challenged perhaps wrt to the offensive game or some other aspect of coaching.
I don't agree that VSpan is a better overall player than Rafer. But I think you have a good point here which I never considered. T-Mac has high turnover rate because he has to be the play maker with Rafer as the PG. Rafer can't make plays. All he does is hand the ball to T-Mac and wait for the 3pt shot. I do believe that with VSpan at the PG, T-Mac's turnover would be lower.
True, Spanoulis' historically high turnover rate would terminate many more possessions before Yao or Tracy got a chance to get the ball.
What needs to be proven - that Spanoulis turns the ball over a lot? That's a simple fact and something that has plagued him at every level.
OK, what about his turnover filled preseason? His high turnvoers at Pantha? You just were trying to downplay it in the other thread five seconds ago. PS this is not directed at you, but I love how every other thread gets hijacked by the Spanoulis fan club and pretty much has been all season. What does this have to do with JVG retiring?
Nothing , I agree, I just reply to comments i feel i have enough knowledge to reply to when I see them. We can continue this on the other thread...and I wasnt trying to downplay it....
More like a head coach with a track record like Adelman's would not take an assistant coach's job. Especially with the number of head coach openings out there.
