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Rockets rebounding not hurting from losing Barkley and Dream

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by JuanValdez, Jan 5, 2000.

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  1. JuanValdez

    JuanValdez Contributing Member

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    You may say I have some free time on my hands.

    Inspired by the strong community effort the Rockets have made in rebounding since Barkley went out, I decided to look at some numbers. I have found that the Rockets are rebounding better since Barkley went out than when we had both Barkley and Dream in the line-up. Here are some numbers (I included the games in which Olajuwon and Barkley were injured as part of their respective sets, though they only played a couple minutes):

    Total rebounds:
    With both: 47.14 (opponents: 43.57)
    W/o Dream: 42.16 (opponents: 42.33)
    W/o both: 44.55 (opponents: 40.64)

    Rockets rebounds as a % of total:
    W/ both: 52.0%
    W/o Dream: 49.9%
    W/o both: 52.3%

    Offensive rebounds:
    W/ both: 13.93 (opp.: 12.93)
    W/o Dream: 11.83 (opp.: 14.00)
    W/o both: 13.64 (opp.: 10.82)

    For the following, I define outrebounding an opponent in a game as have a greater ratio of offensive rebounds to opponent's defensive rebounds than the opponent. I define it like this because comparing totals does not account for number of bricks on either end. With this definition, we've outrebounded opponents well, but have done better recently:

    W/ both: 9 of 14 games
    W/o Dream: 3 of 6 games
    W/o both: 10 of 11 games (barely missed on the Seattle game).

    I do not see a connection between outrebounding (as defined) and winning, since 3 wins came despite being outrebounded.

    I had thought that losing Olajuwon would hurt rebounding and that losing Barkley would kill us in rebounding. But that has not been the case. I credit Rogers and Francis, especially, for effort on rebounds.
     
    #1 JuanValdez, Jan 5, 2000
  2. Will

    Will Clutch Crew
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    OK, that settles it. I'm gonna ask Juan to do my taxes.
     
    #2 Will, Jan 5, 2000
  3. bballfanatic

    bballfanatic Member

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    Way to go, JuanValdez.

    Whew. Come to think of it, I had worried about our rebounding when Chuck went down too. Guess I forgot about it cus as you say, we aren't hurt by it after all.

    I agree Rogers and Francis have made the difference but I am also proud for Matt Bullard for exerting much effort in all around play WITH HURT KNEES. He has showed lots of heart. Kenny Thomas is a pretty good rebounder too, isn't he?

    Thanks for a positive note!
     
    #3 bballfanatic, Jan 5, 2000
  4. Dr of Dunk

    Dr of Dunk Clutch Crew

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    I wonder what the Rockets' FG %age is for those same time periods... you brick more, you have a chance for more rebounds. I'm not saying that they have been shooting worse, just wondering if that could explain it.

    Also consider this : From what you've calc'd, the spread between "having both" and and not having Dream is about 5. The difference between the second best rebounding team right now, the Magic, at 47.0/game and the 22nd best rebounding team, the Pistons, at 41.8/game is about the same.

    Portland, one of the powerhouses in the league, is ranked 13th in rebounding.

    Indiana, who owns the 2nd best record in the league, is ranked 21st! Interestingly enough, they are ranked 6th in FG%.

    Utah, with a 19-10 record, is ranked DEAD LAST in the league in rebounding. Coincidentally, they're ranked #2 in the league in FG%... like I said (and I agree with the coffee bean guy on this) your rebound total doesn't necessarily tell you how well you're doing.

    From looking at rebounding #'s from the past the best rebounding teams are usually the teams that whose (FG% - FG% allowed) is highest. This is not always true, but generally speaking, it is. Why? The defensive rebound-to-offensive rebound ratio is lopsided in the favor of defensive rebounds. The better FG% you have (ie, the better you shoot) and the worse FG% you hold your opponent to, the more the disparity between defensive rebounds on opposing teams.

    That being said, I always did think that rebounding totals were hooey in most NBA discussions. It's not always the team that averages the most rebounds that wins. Opportune rebounding is more important than raw rebound totals.

    ------------------
    Rocket fuel pumps through these veins...

    [This message has been edited by Dr of Dunk (edited January 05, 2000).]
     
    #4 Dr of Dunk, Jan 5, 2000
  5. JuanValdez

    JuanValdez Contributing Member

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    Dr. of Dunk: I'll have to admit you lost me on a few technical points there, but overall, I appreciated the response (along with all the others).

    I don't think I'll be going through it again to calculate FG%. However, I think doing Rockets' rebounds as a % of total rebounds in the game corrects for bricks somewhat. However, it ignores the fact that defensive rebounds are easier to get than offensive rebounds. That is why I did that outrebounding thing that essentially calculates which team was the stronger on the offensive glass. I don't know, but I'd bet if you applied this test to teams with low rebound totals but winning records, you may find that they outrebound their opponents more often than not as I've defined it. This test should eliminate FG% as a factor in rebounding.
     
    #5 JuanValdez, Jan 6, 2000
  6. bballfanatic

    bballfanatic Member

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    Yall both lost me on the technical calculating but man do I enjoy the conversation.

    We weren't really talking about win/loss records though were we??? It was just about making up the rebounding we lost with Chuck going down.

    Of course, I'm somewhat simple-minded, admittedly, but I still think we can be proud of the guys for knowing they needed to pick up Dream and Chuck's rebounds somehow and have hustled to get it done.

    GO ROCKETS!
     
    #6 bballfanatic, Jan 6, 2000
  7. JuanValdez

    JuanValdez Contributing Member

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    I think bballfanatic hit it on the head: in the rebounding department, our guys have done a fine job of stepping up after the loss of Barkley. Go Rockets!
     
    #7 JuanValdez, Jan 6, 2000
  8. Dr of Dunk

    Dr of Dunk Clutch Crew

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    JuanValdez,

    Your topic was a good one. It at least attempts to analyze basketball objectively and not subjectively. About 99% of the posts on this board tend to be subjective analysis which just go on forever with no end in sight because the basis for discussion is strictly personal opinion.

    Sorry about the number crunching. I'm addicted to finding truth in numbers. [​IMG]

    ------------------
    Rocket fuel pumps through these veins...
     
    #8 Dr of Dunk, Jan 6, 2000
  9. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    One thing about rebounds is the *worst* offensive rebounding teams are often the ones with the *best* centers. Houston, NY (ewing days) and Miami are notoriously weak rebounding teams because the best rebounders are often shooting the ball.

    kinda a catch-22
     
    #9 heypartner, Jan 6, 2000
  10. JuanValdez

    JuanValdez Contributing Member

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    Heypartner, that may explain why our rebounds hurt so much when Olajuwon went out and improved when Barkley went out. When we had both, our rebounding was good because when one was shooting, the other was rebounding. When we lost Dream and were running the offense through Chuck, his rebounding prowess was hurt by taking the shots. And when he went down, the rebounding duties remained in the front-court while the scoring duties switched to the back-court, leaving the front-court more able to establish position. Of course that doesn't explain why Francis still grabs a ton of rebounds -- however, that can be explained by his youth, athleticism, and enthusiasm.

    I don't know if that's what you meant, but it seems like a brilliant idea to me. Good job!
     
    #10 JuanValdez, Jan 7, 2000
  11. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    yes...i was trying to avoid being longwinded (as I have a tendency to do). Thx for summing it up: double teams out in the front court help our offensive rebounding down low.

    I recall a stat in 93-94 where Houston and NY were in the bottom 5 worst offensive rebounding teams and the worst for playoff teams. Watching Dream and Ewing turnaround jumpers...it make perfect sense to me.
     
    #11 heypartner, Jan 8, 2000
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