[Dallas News] Road to Title won't be Easy Street - Rockets mention

Road to Title won't be Easy Street

Ten out of 11. Those are the magic numbers for the Mavericks.

And it has nothing to do with getting to 70 wins.

Even though the Mavericks can become the second team in NBA history to reach the nearly unfathomable 70-win plateau by winning 10 of their last 11 games, there's something else at stake here.
Mavericks/NBA

All Dallas really needs to do – at least that's what history tells us – is win five of their last 11. That's because only 11 teams have reached the 65-victory level and 10 of them won the NBA title.

The only team that failed was the '73 Celtics, who lost to the Knicks in a seven-game Eastern Conference finals. John Havlicek was slowed by a significant shoulder injury in the series.

Still one of my more painful high school memories. Don't get me started.

But with the Mavericks this close to what seems a magical win total, it still doesn't look like a cakewalk to the title, does it? Some of their critics scoff at the notion of Dallas even reaching the Finals again.

Giving these doubting Tim Thomases their due, let's examine the worst-case scenarios that Dallas could face on the road to a championship.

First round

Worst case – Denver Nuggets.

Let's be honest, there aren't a lot of frightening prospects for Dallas in the first round. A year ago Memphis looked like a decent team – the Grizzlies had won 49 games – and Dallas swept the series.

So let's pretend the Nuggets, currently 11/ 2 games ahead of the Clippers for the seventh spot, trade places with Los Angeles and land in eighth. And let's say Jason Terry goes as cold for an entire series as he was against Miami in Game 6.

That's about what it would take because the Nuggets don't play with any passion at the defensive end. Still, the presence of Allen Iverson and Carmelo Anthony makes them scarier than a Golden State team that has beaten Dallas at will during the regular season but would have no chance in April.

And the Clippers, after a one-year flirtation with becoming a serious franchise, are once again the Clippers.

Second round

Worst case – Houston Rockets.

If you think a repeat of the seven-game brush with disaster that Avery Johnson encountered in his first postseason series is impossible, think again.

The Mavericks are better now than they were two years ago. So are these Rockets.

The players surrounding Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady are quicker and stronger. Shane Battier, Luther Head, Rafer Alston and, on some nights, young players like Chuck Hayes of Kentucky and John Lucas III of Oklahoma State – these guys are the reason Houston is 11-3 since Yao returned from injury.

The Rockets will have a tough series with Utah, and the Mavericks would hope the Jazz either pulls off an upset – that's what it would be regardless of seeding – or wears down Yao in a seven-game series.

Third round

Worst case – Phoenix Suns.

I know about the tear that the Spurs have been on – 16-2 with 10 road wins. I know and respect Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili and, especially, Gregg Popovich.

That said, there is nothing about the Spurs that is as frightening as a healthy Phoenix Suns team. The Spurs have been there and done that.

The Suns haven't. And they are hungry.

In all likelihood, San Antonio and Phoenix will mix it up in the second round in a series that should be as entertaining and intense as last year's seven-game Mavs-Spurs second-rounder.

For a change, Mavericks fans would need to root for the Spurs. Dallas really has no answer for Amare Stoudemire and Steve Nash other than to just keep outscoring them.

It's a sign of how much the Mavericks have changed under Johnson that the team with the killer offense now scares them more than the team that plays killer defense.

Under Don Nelson, the Mavericks liked their chances better running-and-gunning with Sacramento (the precursor to the Suns, only not as fast) than banging with San Antonio.

Not any more.

NBA Finals

Worst case – Cleveland Cavaliers.

I understand the conventional wisdom. It says that the scariest thing would be Dwyane Wade regaining his health and leading a Miami Heat team that has been hot without him back to the Finals.

I don't buy that at all. The Mavericks would love a second shot at Wade and the Heat.

There really isn't an Eastern Conference team that Dallas needs to avoid. If they get that far, they should close the deal this time.

But what if the Cavaliers, who recently reeled off eight in a row, get hot in the postseason, knock off Miami and Detroit in the second and third rounds, and reach the Finals for the first time?

How would LeBron James take to the big stage?

Pretty smoothly, I would think. These teams met twice in the last month, and Dallas won a pair of tough games (95-92 and 98-90). I think an NBA Finals between these two would look a lot like those games.

We would see tight, defensive battles with the Mavericks clearly having the edge on the bench, but James trying to strap the team on his back and do the impossible.

Kind of like what Wade did last June.