rafer alston isnt fine. he's one of the worst PG's in the league. he can't shoot, he can't finish, and he's literally 2/500 on floaters this season. i'm sorry but having a PG who can't make an open shot or make a layup is just unnacceptable. there are ten PGs in college that are better than rafer.
Rafer's 3pt percentage is going to be a lot better when Yao is playing as Rafer gets more "spot" 3pt shots versus shooting on the move which he is terrible at. Moreover, Rafer isn't playing the 2nd scoring option, but rather is just an end result player instead of trying to force the action. Also, Rafer's 2pt scoring is hideous, as shown above, but what puts it over the top is he never parlays his inside scoring into FTs. Rafer shies away from contact (the tear drop), instead of accepting the contact and getting to the FT line (like Mike James or even Chucky Atkins does). You could "almost" tolerate Rafer's terrible 2pt shooting if he was shooting 5-6 from the FT line each night. That would make a big difference. But terrible 2pt shooting and NO FTs make a difference. It is THESE aspects that make fans get upset about Rafer and want to look for another solution. Which of course we will over the summer.
Here's the correlation test for raw ORtg vs. raw FGA, 3PA, & 2PA: Code: ORtg ORtg 1 FGA 0.169 3PA 0.25 2PA 0.215 Here's the correlation test for smoothed ORtg vs. smoothed FGA, 3PA, & 2PA: Code: Ortg-ES Ortg-ES 1 FGA-ES -0.28 3PA-ES 0.285 2PA-ES -0.322 After doing the stat test there's little correlation either way.
Here's the top 50 PPR ranked list regardless of position. Rafer is #27 (sorry I thought it was #29)... Code: RANK TEAM NAME POS PPR 1 PHO Steve Nash PG 11.1 2 NJN Jason Kidd PG 9.4 3 NOR Chris Paul PG 8.9 4 TOR Jose Calderon PG 8.8 5 UTH Deron Williams PG 8.5 6 DET C. Billups PG 7.7 7 DEN S. Blake (DEN) PG 7.1 8 TOR T.J. Ford PG 6.9 9 CHA Brevin Knight PG 6.8 10 PHI A. Miller (TOT) PG 6.7 11 GSW Baron Davis PG 6.6 12 MIA Jason Williams PG 6.5 13 SEA Earl Watson PG 6.4 14 DEN S. Blake (TOT) PG 6.3 15 LAC Sam Cassell PG 6.2 16 PHI A. Miller (PHI) PG 5.9 17 IND Jamaal Tinsley PG 5.5 18 CHI Chris Duhon PG 5.5 19 CLE Eric Snow PG 5.3 20 LAC Livingston PG 4.6 21 MEM Chucky Atkins PG 4.6 22 ATL Speedy Claxton PG 4.6 23 DAL Jason Terry PG 4.6 24 CHI Kirk Hinrich G 4.4 25 CHA Raymond Felton PG 4.2 26 ATL Johnson (ATL) PG 3.9 27 HOU Rafer Alston PG 3.8 28 POR Jarrett Jack PG 3.6 29 SEA Luke Ridnour PG 3.6 30 NYK Stephon Marbury PG 3.6 31 HOU Tracy McGrady GF 3.4 32 PHO Boris Diaw FC 3.4 33 SAS Tony Parker PG 3.2 34 MIL Boykins (TOT) PG 3.2 35 MIN Mike James PG 3.2 36 BOS Delonte West G 3.1 37 MIL M. Williams G 3.1 38 UTH Derek Fisher PG 2.9 39 MIA Dwyane Wade G 2.7 40 MIA E. Jones (MIA) GF 2.7 41 LAL Luke Walton SF 2.6 42 SAC Mike Bibby PG 2.5 43 PHO Leandro Barbosa PG 2.5 44 DAL Devin Harris PG 2.4 45 SAC Brad Miller C 2.3 46 MIN Trenton Hassell GF 2.3 47 POR Brandon Roy G 2.2 48 SAC John Salmons GF 2.2 49 MIL Charlie Bell G 2.1 50 ATL Tyronn Lue PG 2.1 You can find the list here: http://www.knickerblogger.net/stats/2007/jh_ALL_PPR.htm I'll get back to you regarding my opinion if Rafer is fine or not.
I totally agree on the FT issue. Not only Rafer but also Head has the same problem. Whenever they got inside the paint, they seem that they are trying to avoid any kind of contact or avoid the shot being blocked by getting rid of the ball as earlier as possible. Other than hold on to the ball, create body contact and getting foul, they throw up the ball high to the rim and hope, if lucky, the ball will drop in the hole somehow. We are dead last in the NBA in fouls by opponent. And we are second to last in FTA/gm. According to ESPN, among all PG, Rafer ranks 33rd in FTA/gm. And Head ranks 87th among all SG in FTA/gm.
Well if you look at the stats this is not entirely true. Here are Rafer's 3P stats with Yao in and with Yao out: Code: 3PA 3P% Yao-out 6.3 0.36 Yao-in 6.2 0.38 Rafer has shot on average the same amount of 3 ptrs no matter if Yao was in or not. Also his 3P% average has remained pretty much the same with a slight marginal improvement while Yao was in. Things get a bit more interesting when we look at the probability distribution of Rafer's 3 Pt % with or without Yao. Alston 3P% Probability Distribution With Yao: Alston 3P% Probability Distribution Without Yao: There are definite differences in shapes of the probability distributions. With Yao in there's a higher probability of Rafer producing 40-50% 3pt shooting pct (38% chance) while it's lower a probability with Yao out (28% chance). That being said the overall 3P% for Rafer with Yao in or out is still about the same (36-38% 3 pt shooting).
Those of you who constantly support Rafer are missing the biggest problem we have with him: HE'S SOFT!!!! The guy has no clue how to play physical against somebody. Rafer's steals come from playing the passing lanes, and occasionally picking the pocket of a guard whose looking to pass. I guarantee you that most if not all starting PG's in the league can't wait to match up against Rafer... I know I would if I had NBA skills. The ONLY reason Rafer isn't posted up nightly is because of Yao and Deke!!! But even without the postup, Rafer get's freakin torched, and not just in pts scored, the opposing PG usually winds up with 3-5 more assists per game than Rafer... Weak Link doesn't even BEGIN to cover it. Hell, I'd take AVERY FREAKIN JOHNSON RIGHT NOW AS OUR STARTING PG!!!! SOFT!!! SOFT!!! SOFT!!! SOFT!!! SOFT!!! SOFT!!! SOFT!!! SOFT!!! SOFT!!!
I think Rafer is playing better - better decisions, more consistent shooting, and he's trying the best he can on D. But he's just not quick enough to guard the premiar point guards. Then again, maybe they are indefensible - and the only way to fight fire is with fire now that the game rules have changed to favor penetrators and passers. Who knows....but it's clear that we will stuggle against quicker backcourts. Then again, it's just one game in a strech where clearly JVG has made adjustments. I think Utah willl be a good indicator on April 1st. Deron Williams should give us fits - let's see what happens.
Try a 2 yr old boy, a 4 yr old boy, and a 6 day old girl. Damn...I got to go to work in the morning too
Exactly. He's trying but against PG like Paul, Nash and Iverson - they man handle both Rafer and Head. Constantly we see Head getting beat off the dribble - or too slow and get smoked. Rafer is actually a better defender than Head in my opinion. The only defensive point guard we have is Vspan and he's turnover prone. There's no way he's going to play any minute in the playoffs. JLIII is too short, and his decision making isn't as good as Rafer. But wow - i'm just imaging how bad Williams will own Rafer in the playoffs.
I'm really pleased with Rafer Alston. My expecations are low. We have not had this good of a point guard here since Sam Cassell. (Steve Francis was ashooting guard). No one in the league can really guard Chris Paul, Duhon, Iverson, Nash, or Jason Terry. We will always have trouble with teams with effective point guards-but everybody does....
People call Yao soft. People call TMac soft. People call Juwan soft. People call Battier a 'good citizen' (ie soft). People call Deke really old (ie soft). People are now saying Head shy's away from contact (soft). Just face it, this isn't the Bad Boys of Detroit. We've got our own style of winning which, so far, is working. Rafer being "soft" isn't the problem. If anything, Rafer's biggest problem is that he is TOO AGRESSIVE in his shot selection.
Man.... Raf was throwing up BRICKS last night. I always hate that running floater he shoots - seems like a low % shot to me.
I always thought of Rafer as the world's greatest point guard. <object width="425" height="350"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/n1rdBG9gZSs"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/n1rdBG9gZSs" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="350"></embed></object>
Wow... Tango... great stuff!!! Rafer has one major problem that I wished he would correct. And that his problem with leaning to the left when he shoots. I notice that it's even worse when he's wide open and sets his feet. He needs to correct this and get more vertical with his balance and release. If you notice when someone's on him, or if pulls up on the run he tends not to lean as much and he shoots at a higher percentage. Why does no one point this out to him?
It's early in the game against the Clippers... It's the first time I've seen him hit 2 pull-up jumpers. It looks like he's been practicing. If he practices it, then I'm OK with him shooting it.
