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Lottery Power Rankings

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Barzilla, Dec 28, 1999.

  1. Barzilla

    Barzilla Member

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    ESPN.com always loves to do their power rankings. Here is the inverse, the worst on top, and what they will likely look for on Draft Day.

    1. Chicago 2-22

    Wow, they are really horrible. If they don't get the number one pick it is a serious injustice (unless we get it of course).

    Looking for: anything but power forward

    2. Golden State 6-21

    Who is running this show? They've drafted more pathetic big men than anyone. Well they'll get another......oh yeah, Orlando gets their pick.

    Looking for: a new personel guy

    3 Vancouver 6-20

    Brian Hill's out. Of course, Stu Jackson is the one who wasted a pick on Francis. The team also made Big Country (blown up to a continent) their center of the future with their first pick. Oops.

    Looking for: athletic center

    4. Dallas 9-19

    There are a bundle of teams locked here at 9 wins, but something tells me Dallas is the worst of the bunch. Maybe its the fact that Don Nelson is still the coach.

    Looking for: an American born player

    5. La Clippers 9-18

    Again, we have the Clippers. They have quietly put together a nice nuclues. Now, it's time to see how long they can keep it together.

    Looking for: a point guard

    6. Houston 9-19

    The fact that Houston has a winning pedigree and hope to get the Dream back puts them in front of the Clippers and Mavs.

    Looking for: a small forward

    7. Washington 10-18

    Another team that can't seem to find the big man. They would love to get their hands on someone who can play center.

    Looking for: an athletic center

    8. New Jersey 10-18

    The Nets are a hard team to figure. They have enough talent to make the playoffs in a weak Eastern Conference, but they need Jayson Williams to come back.

    Looking for: another big man

    9. Cleveland 11-16

    Yet another team that can't seem to find that elusive center. Picking slow shooting specialist from Duke doesn't help

    Looking for: an athletic big man

    10. Boston 11-15

    Pitino's Celtics might make a run, but without a decent center it's going to be hard. Gee, does anyone else notice a pattern here?

    Looking for: see almost everyone else

    11. Atlanta 11-15

    This is another team that may make a run. They can build momentum as they continue to play together

    Looking for: small forward

    12. Minnesota 11-13

    You have the league's best player, a very underrated point guard, and a nice 6th man in Joe Smith. They just don't seem lottery bound.

    Looking for: center or shooting guard

    13. Detroit 13-14

    Detroit is just one of those teams that makes you scratch your head. On the one hand, they have the best one two punch in the NBA. On the other hand, they wasted so much money on stiffs like Loy Vaught and (I'll see you at the) Bison Dele.

    Looking for: We get their pick if they make the playoffs. Go Pistons!

    As you can see, we are likely going to be a middle of the road team. It also is encouraging to see that only one other team has a pressing need for a small forward. Could we be lucky enough to have Terence Morris fall to the 6 spot? Probably not, people tend to pick the best player available when he is obviously better, but with most of the teams looking for a post we could get some nice value at the 3 slot on draft day.

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    Rockets When? Rockets When?
     
  2. rocketsfan34

    rocketsfan34 Member

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    Rockets get Morris at #6? Hell no. Morris is young, has all the neccessary ingredients, and has the potential to become great. It's every GM's pick.

    Martin I hope CAN be available at #6 in one sense he's short. And u know what happens on draft day, little things like poor shooting, height, dribbling, mobility get all exaggerated.

    Trust me, Kenyon might have a one hell of an year but he'll drop cuz of his height. On draft day, rumors will spread he won't be able to do the same things he did in college cuz he doesn't have the height. That's what I hope.
     
  3. Barzilla

    Barzilla Member

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    Rocketsfan,

    Oh, I know there is no way we can get Morris at number six. Our best hope is to be in the top three, but that isn't even a lock. Okay, here is where I will have to disagree with you.

    "We have to hope Martin will drop to the 6th"

    I personally guarentee that. And if we have the 6th spot he should keep sliding down.

    "Rumors will spread on draft day saying that he won't be able to do what he did in college in the pros"

    Actually, that's not a rumor, that's a good percentage bet. I remember all the ferver that surrounded Kurt Thomas's (fellow TCU alum) senior season, Corliss Williamson's junior season, Danny Fortson's junior year ect. Now, look around. While they have carved out solid careers for themselves they haven't dominated like they did in college.

    I know what some of you might be saying. "Look at Barkley." Well, that's what makes Charles so special. He's the exception to the rule. For every Charles there are ten Clarence Weatherspoons.

    When it comes down to it, players like Demarr Johnson (Martin's teammate) usually have much more productive NBA careers. The NBA is a league of matchups. You can either pick someone you know gives you a matchup advantage or pick someone who you hope doesn't hurt in the matchup. Martin will certainly be a solid NBA player if he shows the same tenacity and agreesiveness on defense. He just won't be the star everyone thinks he is.


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    Rockets When? Rockets When?
     
  4. rocketsfan34

    rocketsfan34 Member

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    We have to hope Martin will drop to the 6th"

    I personally guarentee that.


    You sure??? I still think he's going to be the best big man available. Or is Mimhs better?

    "Rumors will spread on draft day saying that he won't be able to do what he did in college in the pros"

    Actually, that's not a rumor, that's a good percentage bet. I remember all the ferver that surrounded Kurt Thomas's (fellow TCU alum) senior season, Corliss Williamson's junior season, Danny Fortson's junior year ect. Now, look around. While they have carved out solid careers for themselves they haven't dominated like they did in college.


    But the truth still is Kenyon Martin is THE BEST FRONTCOURT PLAYER, unless I'm wrong. And a great percentage bet is a big man will go in top 5.



    [This message has been edited by rocketsfan34 (edited December 28, 1999).]
     
  5. Francis3

    Francis3 Member

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    Ohh yeah Kenyon will be a top 3 pick. I can bet you on that.
     
  6. dream_team

    dream_team Member

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    Elton Brand was supposed to be too short also. btw, i saw Martin listed as 6'9" is that on overestimate?
     
  7. Barzilla

    Barzilla Member

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    Francis3,

    I will take that bet.

    Dreamteam,

    From what I've been hearing, Martin is 6'8, but usually when you see a college listing on heighth you can subtract an inch or two. For example, Hakeem is really 6'11 even though he is listed at 7'0.

    Rocketsfan34,

    I will not debate that Martin is the best big men in the NCAA. The problem is that the best in the NCAA doesn't always translate into the first big man taken. You mention Chris Mihm. Mihm may not be better than Martin in the NCAA, but at 7'0 he has the kind of size that most NBA teams are looking for. You can look at a Loren Woods in Arizona at 7'1 or Lamont Barnes in Temple who is 6'10. This doesn't even bring up Jason Collier (7'0 power forward) at Georgia Tech. Do you realize the Kurt Thomas is only one of three NCAA players to lead in scoring and rebounding? He easily was the best NCAA big man that year, but because he is 6'9 he wasn't picked until #10. Danny Fortson was also picked tenth. Big Nasty fell even further than that. Stats become less and less important when you talk about big men. Pro scouts try to project their game to the pro level. Martin's size will require him to be more versatile.

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    Rockets When? Rockets When?
     
  8. Francis3

    Francis3 Member

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    Martin will a pwer forward. He is like 6'8 or 6'9. He runs the floor better than anyone. He rebounds so well and he can get up high for blocks. He is a strong guy. Teams would love to have someone like martin. It depends what teams are up there and what needs they need. But anyone who passes up Kenyon Martin has to be the dumbest team.
     
  9. rocketsfan34

    rocketsfan34 Member

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    Barzilla:

    Got your point, I think Kenyon might be 2nd or 3rd big man taken. There always is some no name 7'?" center who has never played b-ball till 16 and is very raw. I think that 7 footer is usually picked first cuz it more safe.



    [This message has been edited by rocketsfan34 (edited December 28, 1999).]
     
  10. Barzilla

    Barzilla Member

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    Francis3,

    "Teams would be dumb to pass on Martin."

    Well, this depends on your drafting philosophy. Basically, there are four ways to go on draft day if you are a lottery team.

    1. Pick the best player available

    This is the Vancouver and Clipper draft from a year ago. Both teams already had good players at that position, but figured Odom and Francis were the best players on the board. Figure out where they fit later.

    2. Pick the player with the most upside potential at your needed position.

    Charlotte would come into play here. They really weren't that bad and they got lucky so they picked Baron Davis knowing that he didn't have to produce overnight.

    3. Pick the player who most ready to contribute at your needed position.

    This would be the Wally Szerbiak pick of Minnesota. They needed an outside threat, and he would make the most immediate impact. Of course, he has a limited ceiling.

    4. Trade the pick for an established NBA player and move down.


    Whenever you are a top five team. You want a player who is going to be a future all-star. Is Kenyon Martin a future all-star? Probably not, he is probably going to be along the lines of an Antonio Davis. A nice player to be sure, but I think most teams would rather roll the dice on a player with a higher ceiling.

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    Rockets When? Rockets When?
     
  11. Ive seen enough of:

    Mimms
    Porter
    Morris
    Johnson
    Penn
    Cleaves
    Haywood

    To know that right now Martin is head and shoulders above all of those guys with Morris being the exception.

    What doesn't this kid do? He didn't score enough so this year he's dropping about 20 a game. He a defensive terror, and a rebounding machine.

    You say he doesn't have the outside shot, but neither does 99.99 percent of college draftee's.

    Continued progress by Martin at his current rate, and he's a much better player than Elton Brand. And if Elton can go 1 at 6'8" then so could Martin.

    No way this kid doesn't go top 5. You name me 5 more dominant players at the college level right now.
     
  12. Mango

    Mango Member

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    TDS99,

    You must have been busy lately because I haven't seen many posts from you of late.
    ...................................................................
    Now on to the question.

    Its draft day 2000 and the Rockets have 2 first round picks. They plan on keeping Cat.

    #9
    #14

    YOU have the final word on who the Rockets draft.
    Who do you draft?
    Package to move up?
    Take some package from another team of a veteran and a pick to give some experience to the young guys that you already have?

    Mango
     
  13. Dr of Dunk

    Dr of Dunk Clutch Crew

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    Mango, The "other tropical fruit",

    If I had the #9 and #14 picks, I'd try to package the two and move up in the draft or trade for a veteran. But with the #9 and #14 picks how far can one expect to move up? I don't see us, for example, moving up to #6 with that combo. That's one of those trades you make on trade day when you look at the board and say, "well, he's still there, but if we don't move up, we don't get him". Then again, someone Rudy REALLY likes may drop to #9... it's happened before.

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    Rocket fuel pumps through these veins...
     
  14. Mango...Been real busy with the Holidays, and I hope youve had a great holiday, now on to your question.

    Im going to have to agree with Dr. Dunkenstein on this one. I don't believe that the number 9 and number 14 picks could move you up to even the number 6 spot.

    As it stands, if the Rox end up with the 9th pick, and assuming the guys I mentioned earlier get drafted pretty high then Id seriously take a look at Najera.
    He could fill a role on a Rox squad. I cant pretend to be a fortune teller, but I figure he'd go right around there. He may not be the most gifted athelete, but he has grit.

    But what Id really like to see is the rox fill out there starting rotation. I believe a package of Mobley and the 9th pick could land you a drafted Morris or Martin. Im not quite sure how to work it around the salary cap, but thats what I would hope the rox would try.
     
  15. Rocketman

    Rocketman Member

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    Take it from me a long time Sooner fan, Najera will be there at 14. He will have a consistent year but woln't really be good enough for the lottery yet. If he only had one more year of eligibility he would be lottery bound. He has a Houston connection and said that if he wasn't going to OU he would have chose U of H. He likes the city and the Rockets could use someone who hustles like him.

    --Rocketman
     
  16. Mango

    Mango Member

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    TDS99,

    Doing fine and hope the same for you in the New Year.

    ..................................................................

    The past draft had a top tier of players,
    Brand, Francis, Odom, etc. Then a drop to a second tier of players and so forth. How many players are considered to be in the top tier in the 2000 draft? With your doubts about being unable to move up very far even with a package of two picks, does this mean that the top tier is expected to be six players?

    Mango
     
  17. SooneRockStro

    SooneRockStro Member

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    I hear ya Rocketman. Najera is da man when it comes to down to doing the dirty work. He rebounds and scores as well as anybody in the NCAA and has a decent percentage around 50%. I've already been flamed for wanting Najera and I don't care how much Francis3 hates him, to get a player like Najera at 14 is a great pickup. And please tell Mobley to pass the ball, jeeze he's a cancer to the team(so is Rudy).
     
  18. SooneRockStro

    SooneRockStro Member

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    By the way Rocketman, I've already heard that Charlotte wants Ed badly and would be willing to trade up to get him. So he might not be there at 14. Although, Charlotte will likely be a low pick because of their record and may not want to give up alot to trade up that high.

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    Najera's gonna go Gabe Muoneke on your butt Mihm!
     
  19. Francis3

    Francis3 Member

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    No way we get Najera. I dont want to waste a pick on him,
     
  20. SooneRockStro

    SooneRockStro Member

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    What you want Francis3 is not what most GMs in the NBA want. Most have said Najera is a first-rounder and possible lottery pick this year and if the Rocks draft him then that's too bad so sad. I really do hope we get Martin, but I would also like to get Najera. But if Rudy doesn't agree with me then I guess it's Charlotte's gain or whoever else wants him that bad. I just don't think Rudy will pass him up though if the Rocks have a pick between 14-20. I respect your opinion, I just don't agree with it.
     

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