First, let me say that I haven't read Berri's book Wages of Wins, but I know a little about their method (Wins Produced) for rating individual players statistically. They give a lot more credit to rebounding than the other stat ratings out there (like PER) and less credit for shot makin, so perhaps the results described here shouldn't be too surprising. http://dberri.wordpress.com/2007/03/08/the-surprising-mount-mutombo/ Basically, they're claiming that Mutombo has been better than Yao on a per minute basis this season, and that explains why the Rockets didn't lose too many games in Yao's absence. I've read some critiques about their method (most of the APBR people aren't too fond of it), and I don't believe for a second that Mutombo is a better player than Yao. But per-minute, I can by the argument that they are closer than is typically thought. Mutombo's defense and rebounding is superior to Yao's, after all. Here's the table for the Rockets players through 61 games.
Interesting stats, but anomalies due to low minutes or high rebounds per minute look like they throw off the result. Deke is NOT our best player although he is clearly our best rebounder. His lack of balance (NO offense) makes this chart suggest that rebounding or shot blocking alone is enough to contribute to wins and in Deke's case that is accurate. But only because TMAC was out of his offensive mind for many of those games. Yao has much more impact than Deke or anyone else not named TMAC on this team and is under-represented, perhaps owing to a complete game. If Yao and Deke were switched I might agree with the rest of the order. Thanks for posting this, kind of fun to think about....
Can we end a misperception here? At this point in their careers, Deke is NOT a better defender than Yao. He may block a few more shots, but Yao is a better team defender (switches) and, for my money, a better individual defender overall. Deke is arguably a better rebounder still, but then there's offense. I am also sick of hearing this per 48 minutes garbage. Endurance and playing extended minutes and keeping your production at a high level matters a lot. Ask every GM if they could have Deke or Yao this year to add to their team for just this year (takes out the age factor with Deke). Is there even one GM that would take Deke? I think not. Listen, why does this have to so hard. Deke is a tremendous defense / rebounding oriented backup center. He brings some thngs to the table that are not natural strengths of Yao's. You know - ebony and ivory?
The rebounding isn't arguable. He's a better rebounder. As for the defense, it's mixed. I think Yao might be a better post defender because of his size. I think Yao is better guarding the pick and rolls on the perimeter, but it's not like that isn't also a weakness for him. Mutombo is a better defensive rebounder. Interestingly, Yao is averaging slightly more blocks per minute, but my feeling is Mutombo is better at guarding the paint than Yao. Maybe he forces more misses through intimidation. He's more agile than Yao, so he can contest inside shots more easily.
I posted this on the site you the article links to and I it sums up my opinion on the subject... Lies, damn lies and statistics. Very misleading stats. This does NOT factor in the known fact that T-Mac has significantly elevated his game since returning from injury that coincidently just happended to be the same time that Yao went out. The Rockets success during Yao’s absence has a lot (and I mean A LOT) more to do with the play of T-Mac than with the play of Mutombo. Deke is a great backup, but he does not offer anything near what Yao offers the Rockets. Another example of correlation being confused with causation.
Yeah, I'm tired of this silly misperception that Deke is a better defender than Yao. Deke gets absolutely burned by jumpshooting bigs every time. See Al Jefferson, Tim Duncan. Yao actually makes an effort to get a hand in his man's face. Deke isn't even remotely close to being as strong as Yao. Deke often has to crouch into a defensive stance to deny postups. Yao just stands there and prevents you from moving -- he has tremendous lower body strength. Yao alters far more shots than Deke blocks. Plus despite Deke's reputation as a shot blocker, he still couldn't match Yao's shotblocking average this season while Yao was out. Yes, that's right. Yao is a better shotblocker than Deke today. You better believe it. Let's not even begin to talk about Yao's help defense/weak side defense, which is far superior to Deke's. Honestly if not for his prolonged injury, there would be no good reason why Yao shouldn't be on the all-NBA defensive team at center. The only thing Deke has on Yao is rebounding. He's a great backup and you can't overestimate the importance of what he has achieved in Yao's absence. But let's not get carried away.
That's not a fair comparison. Does he alter more shots than Deke alters? Perhaps my memories from two seasons ago (I though Deke waa clearly a better defender for us then) is clouding my perception today. JVG would regularly go with Mutombo then in offense/defense situations. I don't think he's done that this season, though. Yao has improved a lot on the defensive end.
This stuff just continues to baffle me. I don't remember too many people saying that Larry "Mr. Mean" Smith was better for the Rockets in the early 90s when he replaced Dream who was out with an orbital fracture? If memory serves, the Rockets when on quite a tear during Dream's absence and Larry had some 20+ rebound games then as well. Listen, Yao is THE priemier post player in the NBA and arguably has been for the past 2 years. Here's a newsflash, the team will be much better off with him in the lineup long-term. It's not even debatable except by some stat jock who forgot the difference between causation and correlation.
OK. It seems to me that the fundemental flaw in the Wins Produced metric is it assumes correlations to wins at the team level apply at the individual level. For teams, things like rebounding and efficiency from the field are extremely important. But you can't assume the same relationships apply when assessing individuals. For instance, if one player doesn't get the rebound, another player on his team might get it. This is particularly true on the defensive boards. Thus, while at the team level defensive rebounding is crucial, for individuals it isn't necessarily the best indicator of how much you're helping your team win. These numbers might be relevant: Code: [B]min off48 def48 net48[/B] Mcgrady+Mutombo 710 94.7 84.8 +9.9 McGrady+Yao 505 98.9 90.3 +8.5 It appears we have defended better with McGrady+Mutombo rather than McGrady+Yao. Offense is slightly worse, but still the net +/- is slightly better. McGrady's numbers with Mutombo have been far better this season (30.2 on 45% compared to 19.1 on 41%). So, we could ask if these differences has something to do with what Mutombo and Yao are doing, is it a fluke, or what?
as some posters pointed out, it had little to do with deke, it's mainly that tmac sucked at the start of the season when playing together with yao.
I think all of these stats are interesting but a per minute stat is very misleading for the problem that I healthy Mutumbo cannot play as long as a healthy Yao. Even if Mutumbo in a 10 minute period can pull down more rebounds than Yao in a 10 minute period Mutumbo isn't going to play 35 + minutes like Yao will.
Who cares, really... they're both equally valuble to this team. Yao, obviously because he's one of the best centers in this league, and Deke, for doing a superlative job of stepping up in Yao's extended absence to help us maintain a good record. We never would have known he still had that in him if Yao hadn't gone down...
yao is the best center in the league and the only difference is that t-mac wasn't himself at the beginning .those guys are crazy to even think a second that the rockets are better with mutumbo.sure they may win against the average team bt against dallas and phoenix yao and t-mac both healthy is the key .with those 2 i fear no one.heck i am confident we will win the ring.without yao we could maybe have win the 1st round against utah but with yao the sky is the limit..houston rockets nba champion 2006-2007
Ok, so deke is more efficient than Yao, so what? It's insane to compare their efficiency, but we should be happy to have Yao as our center and Deke as his backup.
durvasa, I have to admit I am not a big Yao fan. I still remember someone here even once called me Yao hater in clutchfans bbs (but I don't admit that either). But this thread is simply disgusting, period. Stop hating durvasa.
