1. Welcome! Please take a few seconds to create your free account to post threads, make some friends, remove a few ads while surfing and much more. ClutchFans has been bringing fans together to talk Houston Sports since 1996. Join us!

long range shot is helping us

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by deshen, Feb 2, 2007.

  1. deshen

    deshen Member

    Joined:
    Mar 28, 2006
    Messages:
    1,252
    Likes Received:
    159
    I have been wondering what is the key helping us this season than last one. In the begining of this season, there was a discussion about how we should take 3-points. Many fans including myself like to take more 3-points as long as we have above 33.3% shooting. Surprisingly, it works, Here is the 3-point results for this two years

    3-point
    2005-2006 2006-2007
    M 5.7 8.8
    A 17.2 23.7
    Pct 33.2 37.2

    two point

    2005-2006 2006-2007

    M 33.0 35.3
    A 76.2 79.2
    Pct 43.3 44.6

    We are taking 5.5 3-points more than last season per game, and get 9.3 points more from 3-point shooting than in last year. This helps a lot for the paint and is the main reason why we are still good with injuries this season.
     
  2. dfoolz

    dfoolz Member

    Joined:
    Oct 20, 2002
    Messages:
    304
    Likes Received:
    1
    rockets 103
    hornets 80

    rafer 5-16 10 pts 3 bds 5 assists 5 turnovers 1- 6 on teardrops :eek:
     
  3. smoothie

    smoothie Jabari Jungle

    Joined:
    Mar 1, 2001
    Messages:
    20,716
    Likes Received:
    6,947
    yes we are taking 5.5 more 3's per game but we're also taking 3 more 2's per game.

    that's an extra 8.5 shots per game from last season.

    that fact that we are able to take that many more shots from last year (even with all of the injuries from last season) is a strong indicator of how much we've improved, but not the season itself.

    you can't just decide to shoot more shots. you have to keep TO's down, force more TO's from your opponents, and rebound the ball better. that's how you get more shots.

    so the root of our increased shot attempts is the fact that we are taking care of the ball, rebounding and playing defense. when you put it like that, it's a no brainer that we're playing better.
     
  4. durvasa

    durvasa Member

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2006
    Messages:
    38,893
    Likes Received:
    16,449
    Three point shooting *can* be a good thing, but there are other things to consider.

    Yes, if you attempt more three pointers and shoot a decent percentage, your efficiency from the field will likely increase. However, you will also tend to draw less fouls, which means less trips to the foul line. You also will usually have less second chance points. Further, I think it's probably easier for the other team to fast break off a missed outside shot than a missed inside shot.

    I think I'll look into these trends a little more at some point and post the results here. I expect 3PA/FGA correlates well with eFG% (efficiency from the field), but not as well with Offensive Efficiency (points scored per possession).
     
    #4 durvasa, Feb 2, 2007
    Last edited: Feb 2, 2007
  5. Nero

    Nero Member

    Joined:
    Jun 12, 2002
    Messages:
    6,447
    Likes Received:
    1,429

    I think you're right, but I would add that the team has made a point of getting their shots earlier in the shot clock. They famously practiced from the beginning of camp with an 18-second clock instead of 24.

    Over the course of a game, this adds up to more shots as well.

    It's a combination of things, like you said.
     
  6. smoothie

    smoothie Jabari Jungle

    Joined:
    Mar 1, 2001
    Messages:
    20,716
    Likes Received:
    6,947
    of course that is a factor as well. faster pace = more shots. the problem is that both teams get more shots, so you don't gain an advantage.

    my main point was that shots come from somewhere. TO's and REB's determine how many shots a team will gain or lose. dominate those stats and you will out shoot your opponents. out shooting your opponents usually means outscoring them as well.

    all season we've been a very good rebounding team which has led to our success. with experience we will learn how to control TO's better, but i like that we are forcing more TO's (that equals taking shots away from our opponent).
     
  7. jopatmc

    jopatmc Member

    Joined:
    Sep 4, 2002
    Messages:
    15,370
    Likes Received:
    390
    Hey, based on last year's shot numbers, we would have increased our PPG by 4 points just by shooting a higher percentage.
     
  8. ShakeYoHipsYao

    Joined:
    Dec 5, 2006
    Messages:
    399
    Likes Received:
    0
    Why did you post this? Rafer is a big part of the reason why we're winning so much this season.
     
  9. smoothie

    smoothie Jabari Jungle

    Joined:
    Mar 1, 2001
    Messages:
    20,716
    Likes Received:
    6,947
    sounds interesting. can you find the numbers and post them?
     
  10. durvasa

    durvasa Member

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2006
    Messages:
    38,893
    Likes Received:
    16,449
    I looked at the following team metrics for the last 5 seasons (including this one):

    3PA%: 3PA / FGA
    eFG%: efficiency from the field
    FT-r: FTM / FGA
    oreb%: oreb / (oreb + Opp_dreb)
    Off_eff: points scored / offensive poss
    Def_eff: points allowed / defensive poss

    I standardized them to make the comparisons across seasons fair. Here's how they all relate to 3PA% (closer it is to 1 or -1, the stronger the relationship; closer to 0 the weaker the relationship):

    eFG%: 0.477
    FT-r: -0.293
    oreb%: -0.435
    Off_eff: 0.344
    Def_eff: -0.061

    As expected, it usually helps your efficiency from the field. However, teams generally won't score as often from the line, and they don't offensive rebound as well. Overall, there seems to be a clear positive relationship with offensive efficiency though. Almost no relationship to defensive efficiency.

    I also decided to divide the sample based on 3p%:

    For 3p% >= 36%,
    eFG%: 0.608
    FT-r: -0.371
    oreb%: -0.428
    Off_eff: 0.498
    Def_eff: 0.029

    For 34% <= 3p% < 36%,
    eFG%: 0.220
    FT-r: -0.135
    oreb%: -0.270
    Off_eff: 0.142
    Def_eff: -0.043

    For 3p% < 34%,
    eFG%: 0.242
    FT-r: -0.231
    oreb%: -0.468
    Off_eff: 0.042
    Def_eff: -0.192

    Not surprisingly, it looks like it helps the offense less and less as the 3P% goes down, but even looking at teams shooting less than 34% from beyond the arc the relationship doesn't become negative.
     
  11. ShakeYoHipsYao

    Joined:
    Dec 5, 2006
    Messages:
    399
    Likes Received:
    0
    durvasa- you are truly a gift to the bbs. I really appreciate your analysis.
     
  12. startover

    startover Member

    Joined:
    Apr 1, 2006
    Messages:
    217
    Likes Received:
    2
    Battier is helping us, seriously!
     
  13. yowyao

    yowyao Member

    Joined:
    Nov 14, 2006
    Messages:
    180
    Likes Received:
    0
    me too!!! but i couldnt understand it! :D
     
  14. durvasa

    durvasa Member

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2006
    Messages:
    38,893
    Likes Received:
    16,449
    That probably means I did a poor job explaining it.

    There's not much really surprising about it. In a nutshell, last 5 years teams that attempt a lot of threes tend to be better offensively overall, and in particular they tend to be more efficient from the field. On the other hand, they tend to not offensive rebound as well, and they don't benefit as much from the free throw line. It basically confirms what common sense would tell us.

    One thing that is a bit strange is that the relationship between frequency of 3PA and efficiency from the field doesn't drop when you examine teams that shot below 34% compared to teams that shot between 34% and 36%. Maybe it's a sample size quirk. :confused:
     
  15. deshen

    deshen Member

    Joined:
    Mar 28, 2006
    Messages:
    1,252
    Likes Received:
    159
    It is not difficult to understand, 34% 3Point equals to 50% 2Point. In this season, there is no single team could shot above 50%, Suns is 49.9% right now.
     
  16. tiger0330

    tiger0330 Member

    Joined:
    Mar 2, 2003
    Messages:
    4,759
    Likes Received:
    63
    I never understand these posts as well but I failed algebra. :)

    Durvasa, whats the bottom line with so called three point shooting teams, do they win? What teams have been the leaders in 3 point attempts, 3 point % in the past five years?
     
  17. Mikeylu

    Mikeylu Member

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2005
    Messages:
    1,111
    Likes Received:
    19
    its obviously battier...he's like a bowen on steroids ...the bowen that played on the championship squad on the spurs...not the scrub thats on the spurs now..battier is bigger, stronger, faster, and can shoot 3's not only on the baseline..but at the wings and at the top of the key
     

Share This Page