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+/- numbers Before/After Yao Injury

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by durvasa, Jan 26, 2007.

  1. durvasa

    durvasa Member

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    Using the data at basketballvalue.com, I compiled some +/- numbers (per 48 minutes) for our players for the whole season up through the Denver game, before Yao's injury, and afterwards.

    If you're interested in a particular combination of players, I can look it up for you. For now, I'll post what I found for each individual player. The numbers in parentheses is the team's +/- with that player off the court.


    Code:
    [B]              season            before 12/25          after 12/25
              min        on       min       on         min        on[/B]
    Alston    1522   +5.1(+3.7)   997    +6.2(-0.6)    526    +3.2(+11.9)
    McGrady   1191   +7.5(+0.7)   700    +6.6(+2.2)    492    [B]+8.9(-3.9)[/B]
    Battier   1561   +6.2(-0.3)   1010   +7.0(-3.7)    552    +4.8(+7.1)
    Hayes     743    +8.7(+2.5)   479    +12.0(+0.2)   264    +2.7(+6.8)
    Howard    986    +3.5(+6.1)   534    -1.0(+8.4)    452    [B]+8.8(-1.6)[/B]
    Yao       936    +6.0(+3.7)   936    +6.0(0.9)     0       n/a(+5.2)
    Mutombo   618    +5.6(+4.4)   210    +2.7(+4.9)    408    +7.1(+2.6)
    Head      1193   +1.0(+10.5)  777    +2.3(+7.8)    417    [B]-1.6(+15.8)[/B]
    Wells     271    +0.4(+5.5)   178    -5.1(+6.1)    93     +10.8(+4.4)
    Lucas     200    +14.4(+3.7)  71     +14.3(+4.0)   130    +14.4(+3.1)
    
    Since Yao went out, the players with the best On/Off differential (by far) are Tracy and Juwan. For Juwan, it's a striking turn around. I will note, however, that when Juwan is playing without McGrady next to him since 12/26, we're -5.3, and when its McGrady without Juwan we're -1.7.

    Another thing I observe is that (since Yao's gotten injured) we've struggled when Luther is in the game. It's particularly bad when Luther and Alston are paired together (before 12/26 it was +4.5, but since it has been a dreadful -9.7). Even though Luther isn't a great ball-handler, perhaps it's best that he be moved to backup PG so we don't have to pair those two together as much.
     
  2. ind0fo0

    ind0fo0 Member

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    excellent post, thanks! :p
     
  3. RocketManJosh

    RocketManJosh Member

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    Another thing to remember is that when Luther is in the game, Tracy often is not in the game. He's the only player you can say that for and that is really going to skew his numbers in the negative direction. With Tracy in the game, I might have a positive number all because of him :)
     
  4. AroundTheWorld

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    Well, according to the +/- stats at 82games, http://www.82games.com/0607/0607HOU.HTM - our best bet would be to have nobody on the court.

    Off court:

    Yao + 3.8
    McGrady +1.4
    Lucas +3.8
    Battier +0.6
    Wells +5.3
    Mutombo +4.6
    Alston +3.9
    Hayes +2.3
    Novak +5.2
    Howard +7.7
    Head +10.0
    Snyder +6.1
    Spanoulis +5.6
    Padgett +4.7

    Stats, lies and videotape... :cool:
     
  5. durvasa

    durvasa Member

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    That's true.

    But since 12/25, Luther and McGrady together (235 minutes) are still only +1.2 (McGrady is +8.9). And Luther, Alston, and McGrady together (144 minutes) are actually -6.0, so the Alston/Luther pairing struggle even if McGrady is on the floor. Interestingly, before Yao's injury with those three together were +8.8. I think this is largely attributable to Luther's shooting having fallen off so much the past month.
     
  6. weslinder

    weslinder Member

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    You're misinterpreting what that means. All that means is that every group of five that is sent out there has a positive +/-. This is amazing, but it's true.

    http://www.nba.com/statistics/lenov...son=22006&split=9&team=Rockets&pager.offset=0

    The worst cumulative +/- was Mutombo, Hayes, Battier, Head, Lucas, which had a cumulative +/- of +3 for the season.
     
  7. choujie

    choujie Member

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    I feel when both Head and Alston are in the game, Rox usually can't stop opponents from scoring.
     
  8. AroundTheWorld

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    Ah really? And I thought I had devised the master plan for us to win...
     
  9. Mack

    Mack Member

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    Whenever Luther is in the game at SG, his opponent always posts him up. He's just too small.
     
  10. jopatmc

    jopatmc Member

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    Yup. That combined with since they brought back the old ball, Luther's shooting has gone into the tank a lot.
     
  11. jopatmc

    jopatmc Member

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    This is probably too much to ask, but I'd like to see player pair numbers since Yao has been out, for when McGrady is not on the floor. Don't know if that is possible, but I would like to look at who is efficient without McGrady and see how that correlates to who is effective as a pairing when McGrady is on the floor.
     
  12. BNAhanbing

    BNAhanbing Member

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    the Juwan thing is somewhat misleading. the minutes Juwan played before and after are almost the same. Apparently, his minutes increased after Yao's injury. Also keep in mind that at the beginning of the seaon, he didn;t get a lot of playing time. He was transforming himself from a starter to a decent bench player during that time.

    statistics is good. But frequently ridiculour results are produced.

    From this we can just conclude that PLAY LUCAS ALL THE TIME!!!
     
  13. dudelos

    dudelos Member

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    I'm positive when yao comes back, luther's game is gonna go up. he's a catch and shoot player so he's gonna get more kick outs from yao.
     
  14. JeopardE

    JeopardE Member

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    The T-Mac/Juwan pick and roll has been absolute money lately. I'm not surprised that those two have such an oustanding +/-. Naturally we should expect Juwan's numbers to go down when Yao returns, since he'll be filling that scoring role less often.

    Most of those numbers are as expected. Rafer's +/- before Yao's injury was really high because he was the primary playmaker in the backcourt (and really the only capable ballhandler we had out there). Now with T-Mac being the focus of the offense, he doesn't have to do that duty as much ... and the effects of his poor shooting earlier on start to show. It's also interesting to note that Lucas has consistently filled his role well ... as an energy guy off the bench in limited minutes to give the offense a nice spark. There's also the fact that he typically dominates the offense during garbage time so that helps his numbers a lot.

    Wish we had a large enough sample size to see just how well V-Mac and Marquette boy have been doing. :)
     
  15. durvasa

    durvasa Member

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    Unfortunately, basketballvalue doesn't track player's individual stats. All I can tell you is their +/- without McGrady since Yao went out. I can find the +/- for any player combination.
     
  16. durvasa

    durvasa Member

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    So what exactly is misleading again?

    Lucas was an energy guy who did help us in spurts in most of his stints. He probably also benefitted disproportionately from garbage time. But there's a reason he was getting playing time. The main reason he is out of the rotation now is because JVG wants to work in Bonzi.
     
  17. xomox

    xomox Member

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    oops. nevermind.
     
  18. Kim

    Kim Member

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    woohoo, statistical evidence to backup what I've been preaching for so long. No more Rafer Head backcourts!!!!
     
  19. wingz0

    wingz0 Member

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    But I think the Rafer-Head backcourt is more out of necessity than out of them working well together. No one can deny that they're both small players and when they're both in the game, neither can guard 2-guards. But with Head, he's a classic tweener. Good scorer, poor handler and floor-general. If he doesn't come in at the 2, is he gonna come in at the 1? If he doesn't back T-mac up, who can?

    Bonzi's role is muddled right now because of the Yao injury and us having limited bigs, but I reckon when Yao comes back, Bonzi is gonna be the primary wing guy off the bench, which leads to Head eating up more of Rafer's minutes. I just hope Head can improve his playmaking.
     
  20. jopatmc

    jopatmc Member

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    Juwan has played very good. But sorry, don't want to see him with Yao. It's too slow. I want to go back to Lil Chuckie with Yao and Juwan should be tied to Deke coming off the bench. Let those 2 team up with Bonzi as the main post up option.

    McGrady-Yao-Chuckie
    Bonzi-Deke-Juwan
     

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