Remember when we paid a "steep price" for Beltran's services, but it'd *definitely* be worth it if we could re-sign him? (though it ended up being worth it anyway based on the postseason) Well, looking back.. Dotel has put together what--1.5 semi-useful seasons out of the last 3? And the one I need to eat.. John Buck, whom I thought was going to be a stud catcher in the league. He's now described as a "medium-pop, low average hitter; good arm, good at digging pitches out of the dirt". (by a Yahoo writer) That's *all* we gave up to get Beltran. (Aside from just wanting to reflect on that.. it helps to have this thought when thinking about the Jennings deal. Things can still go very well for us.. though I obviously think we will and hope we do re-sign him)
Very few people at the time thought we gave up much to get Beltran. Buck and Dotel (the way he was pitching for us at the time) are pretty much nothing. Taveras, Hirsch, and Buchholz are a steep price to pay.
keep in mind - there was a third team involved in the beltran deal. dotel went to the a's who traded two prospects to the royals, including a highly-touted INF (teahhen, i believe... 3B?). so the royals wound up with buck (highly-touted C), teahen, or whoever, and, iirc, a pitcher - iow, about what the rockies got for jennings, minus the major league experience.
Certainly this *can* go well. I think the difference in the two situations is that Beltran was one of the best young centerfielders in the game. Randy Johnson, while struggling, was a superstar-level pitcher. Jennings? Not so much. He had one good season and a bunch of mediocre ones. In the Beltran trade, we were trading potential for proven performance. Here, we're trading potential for potential.
There was a good chance that Willy and Buchholz would have been out of the picture at some point in 2007 anyways. Willy had had 2 full years, and still can't get anything but the infield/bunt single. In addition, while his defense improved... his base running regressed. Taylor, with indescript arm trouble/poor performances at multiple levels... had already fallen below Albers, Nieve, Hirsh, Sampson, and Wandy (belive it or not) in terms of #4 or #5 starters. And even though we are banking on Jennings to have a "better" year... he's still a guy who had thrown 180+ innings in 4 out of his last 5 years, and didn't fall off the face of the earth by pitching in Colorado. This deal doesn't come close (in terms of what we gave up) to the RJ and Beltran deal (Dotel was still a better than average reliever, Buck was our catcher of the future). And, as you said, Jennings is not close to what we're receiving either. Also, revisiting this trade, had Beltran eventually signed with us... there's a good chance Willy would have never seen the majors (instead of logging 2+ years of everyday service time as a leadoff hitter).
There's where we disagree. Dotel, at the time, was more proven and higher value than anyone in this trade--except maybe Jennings. And to me, Buck at that time was about on the level of Hirsh
yeah dotel despite having some trouble as our closer was (arguably)the best set up man in the game. He was a proven commodity. we just happened to have lidge in the waiting. man i miss that lidge-dotel-wagner hammer at the end of those games. I'd still rather have a player that has proven they can perform at this level then those potential stars, not always, but in this case we need/needed a starter for this upcoming season. there's still room for a prospect to break into the rotation. not sure if that is a good thing though but i think the stros are past the win now clemens/petite era. Im not saying they won't or can't win it all of course.
you forgot about a 30 game hitting streak, he had a very good last two months of the last season, and he is one of the better defensive cf's in the majors and has one of the best arms in the majors. but other than that, he didn't prove much.
I don't have the numbers, but I wonder how many of those 30 games he was 1-for-4 with a bunt single? Willy's not a hitter. Great defense, decent baserunning, not a good hitter. I wish him the best Juan-Pierre-like Colorado transformation, except against the Astros of course.
He's a Dave Roberts-lite type player with worse base-running instincts. His defense has improved, but don't assume he's like a gold glove calibur CF out there. He's not. The 30 game hitting streak was nice... I would rather have a guy out there with extra base hitting capability, with the occasional long ball, instead of the only threat of getting on base being the bunt single. Tony Eusebio once had a long hitting streak... and he had the exact role Willy T should have had for a contending team (a defensive replacement/spot starter).
His monthly averages and OBP were: Apr - .287 .333 May - .250 .309 Jun - .250 .304 Jul - .258 .309 Aug - . 328 .387(most of the 30 game hitting streak) Sep - .250 .316 Pretty consistent at the .250/.300 level except for the 30 game streak.
and he's also a consistent 280 for his career. better than everett who people claim is essential because of his defense. willy has two years in the majors and people are writing him off. yet they lane is 40 years old and there are still people who argue he's going to get it one day.
No one is writing Willy off but his defense isn't even close to as good as Everett's. Everett is the best SS in baseball. Willy isn't even the best CF in our division.
willy is a lot better defensive fielder than he was a rookie. if he's getting better, that's all you can ask. alot of his adjustment as a rookie was to the size of the ballparks. I just feel the guy was undervalued here.
No doubt about his improvement on D, even over the course of last season the difference was very noticable. It's his lack of improvement on O that's troublesome. He may be sorely missed if Burke or eventually Pence can't handle CF full time. Or he may not.
First of all, Willy was an awful CF during his last year at AAA, and during the first half of 2005. His speed made up a ton for bad reads, late jumps, and sometimes just flat-out lack of concentration out there. Yes, he got better... but that doesn't mean you can compare his defense at CF to Everett's at SS. On most average teams, Willy is a late inning defensive replacement, or an 7th-8th type hitter. That wasn't going to be the case here... thanks to Everett, and the team simply can't afford to get the awful OBP/XBH capability out of the leadoff spot, given the shape of the offense (now, I'm not saying Burke is going to cure everything... but it was clear that this club needed an offensive jump-starter other than Taveras up there for Berkman/Lee).
I'd argue that he was an INconsistent .280. In his 12 months of hitting, he has had 4 months over .300 and 6 months under .260. Also, compared to other qualified Center Fielders, he was 9th (last) in OPS and 7th in OBP. Out of lead off hitter with a minimum of 300 plate appearances he was 14th (out of 17) in OBP (Biggio was 17th - ouch) and 17th in OPS (Biggio was 10th). I'm not writing him off. If the Astros were in the rebuilding phase, he probably should not have been in the Jennings trade, but since they have been continually in the reloading phase, I have no problems with the trade. The Astros had 3 everyday players who could not get on base and who also had no pop and Willy was the odd man out. Day in and day out, shortstop is a more demanding defensive position, so a great defensive SS who can't get on base is more valuable than a very good defensive center fielder who can't get on base.
