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Rockets Ideal Substitution Pattern

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Hayesfan, Jan 20, 2007.

  1. Hayesfan

    Hayesfan Member

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    After all the talk the last few days (well since the beginning of the season really) about developing bench players and letting Vspan, Novak, JL3, Bonzi and Snyder get more/less minutes I am curious about the opinions of everyone here on what your ideal subsitution pattern is for the current Rockets team.

    Now I know a bunch of yall have followed NBA basketball for a long time, and others are former lower level coaches and such, so there is a lot of basketball knowledge here on the boards.

    So here's the my point of discussion.

    Everyone has an opinion on JVG's substitution sequencing, but instead of saying what he's doing wrong...

    Discuss what you would do in his position, both with and without Yao in the line up.

    My ideal pattern totals with Yao

    Rafer 35 /Luther 8 /JL3 or Vspan 5 (depending on match up)
    Tmac 35 /Luther 10 /Snyder 5
    Battier 30 /Bonzi 13 /Snyder 5
    Hayes 20 /Howard 20 / Battier or Bonzi 8 (depending on match up)
    Yao 35 /Deke 10 /Howard or Hayes 3 (depending on match up)

    Making my ideal lineups on the floor at any one time as follows:

    Rafer/Tmac/Batt/Chuck/Yao
    Head/Tmac/Batt/Howard/Yao
    Rafer/Head/Bonzi/Howard/Deke
    Head/Tmac/Snyder/Batt/Yao
    JL3 or Vspan/Snyder/Bonzi/Howard/Hayes

    But... that's a 10 -11 man rotation, which yall say is too many in the NBA. My challege is then to figure out who to cut out. (I will try to do that later after I read some of yall's suggestions on rotations)

    So then without Yao

    Rafer 35 /Luther 8 /JL3 or Vspan 5 (depending on match up)
    Tmac 35 /Luther 10 /Snyder 5
    Battier 15 /Bonzi 20 /Snyder 13
    Howard 28 / Battier 20
    Deke 24 / Hayes 24

    Lineups together on the court:

    Rafer/Tmac/Batt/Howard/Deke
    Head/Tmac/Bonzi/Howard/Hayes
    Rafer/Head/Bonzi/Batt/Deke
    Head/Tmac/Snyder/Batt/Hayes
    JL3 or Vspan/Snyder/Bonzi/Howard/Hayes

    Finally without Tmac or Yao (this one was hard!)

    Rafer 35 /JL3 10 /Vspan 3
    Luther 35 /Snyder 13
    Battier 18 /Bonzi 25 /Snyder 5
    Howard 28 / Battier 17 /Novak 3
    Deke 24 / Hayes 24

    making the lineups on the court:

    Rafer/Head/Batt/Howard/Deke
    JL3/Head/Bonzi/Howard/Hayes
    Rafer/Snyder/Bonzi/Batt/Deke
    Rafer/Head/Snyder/Howard/Hayes
    JL3/Head/Bonzi/Batt/Deke
    Vspan/Snyder/Bonzi/Novak/Hayes

    The only reason I add Novak and Vspan definate minutes here is to take advantage of any mismatches they can create (no yao or tmac we have to take advantage of any mismatch that shows up). If they couldn't I would add the minutes back to the starters. Also should Deke or Chuck get into foul trouble I would move Howard to 5 of course and increase the minutes of Howard and Battier or Snyder. And I am never putting JL3, Head and Rafer on the court together.. no matter how fast the other team is!

    This assumes that all the other players are completely healthy... as we believe that Snyder and Bonzi now are.

    So what do yall think? What are your "perfect" rotations?
     
  2. pandazn

    pandazn Member

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    Looks good, but I'd have to say that we should go roughly 10 deep, maybe 11 at most. JL3 doesn't deserve ANY playing time. Make Head backup at PG/SG, give some playing time to Snyder (occasionally for his d), Bonzi, and Deke. Roughly 9-10 Deep. Hayes for some hustle, but he's severely undersized. I just don't see how we can hang with the best if he keeps getting rebounded over.
     
  3. RocketsMac

    RocketsMac Member

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    the problem is, a lot of people dont understand what "coaching" is. coaching is managing the team's roster as to reach the maximum potential of the level of play of this team. this involves knowing WHO to play in particular situations to get the best results possible.

    unfortunately, our r****ded coach doesn't understand this simple concept and he has to have a rigid "7 player rotation" where he plays only 7 or 8 guys every night and glues the rest of the players to the bench.

    I am not suggesting an 11 or 12 player rotation, but I am suggesting that when we play, say the Lakers, we should play Bonzi and Snyder more than Head because the Lakers have size. when we play the Suns, we play Head and Novak because we need quickness and people who can put it in the basket. when we play San Antonio, I want to see Vspan for defensive purposes on Parker. btw, those are just random examples, but u get the point though. I hate having a rigid rotation. I hate keeping Luther Head in when he gets posted up every single time by a larger player, when this happens, we can go with, say, Snyder or Bonzi to fix that problem. when we are getting outscored and Hayes isn't really doing anything, I want to see Novak in shooting 3's. when our PG gets owned on D, I want to see Span step in and lock down the guard.

    that's the art of coaching, that's what a coach is for. teams dont hire a coach to motivate players and give them speeches at time outs, they hire coaches to make such decisions that improve the team. unfortunately, JVG is not making the right decisions, that's why I think he should step down.

    again, I really dont like seeing a rigid substitution pattern, I want to see a flexible one that fits the match ups and helps the team the most. we are wasting a lot of talents by keeping them on the bench to "mature". I am sure Vspan would've helped more than Lucas had we played him in that PHX game.

    if JVG doesn't understand this soon, I dont think we can go all the way. we have all the ingredients for a championship team, but JVG is not really using wisely. we have a 25-15 record, that's great, but imagine what our record would be if we had Rudy-T coaching and utilizing Bonzi's, Span's and Novak's talents. we might go to the playoffs, but I dont see us getting out of the 1st round unless we get homecourt advantage and a favorable matchup, and by favorable, I dont mean PHX, Dallas, or SA.
     
  4. durvasa

    durvasa Member

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    You have injuries, you shorten the rotation. That's natural.

    And for you to suggest that he doesn't adjust the rotation depending on the matchups is simply false. He may not swap players in and out of the rotation as frequently as you'd like (how many successful teams do that?), but the rotation isn't completely rigid. Every player on the roster has gotten meaningful minutes at some point this season.
     
  5. RocketsMac

    RocketsMac Member

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    Span?
    Novak?

    I dont think so durvasa.. atleast not at the right situation. JVG played Span to prove that he sucks. he played him out of position (at the 2) and he made him shoot the 3s to prove to us JVG haters that Span sucks, well, guess what Mr. Gundy? not on me. I know better than that. play him at the 1 then see what he does..
     
  6. durvasa

    durvasa Member

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    See, that's the response I expected. They've gotten meaningful minutes, and when they didn't make the most of it, it's because they weren't put in the "right situation" and, further, Van Gundy only did it to make them look bad.

    Look, I just think that's ludicrous, but I'm not going to argue over this any further.
     
  7. ind0fo0

    ind0fo0 Member

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    weird- you put 20 minutes for Hayes in the WITH YAO....
    but Hayes is only in one rotation...

    i know you are a hayes fan (lol), but i would minimize his time to 10 mins MAX until he knows how to catch and shoot... (something that even mark madsen can do)
     
  8. RocketsMac

    RocketsMac Member

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    durvasa, I am not one of those crazy posters who are blinded with their love for Span and Novak. I am not telling u they are Tony Parker and Larry Bird. I know that Span sux and turns the ball over so much, but the question is, does he suck more than JL3? and the other question is: did we get an experience long enough of his play to evaluate him (or them?)..

    all I am saying is, I dont like the way Gundy manages the roster. the organization brought in a group of good players, Van Gundy isn't using them properly. he wants a 7 player rotation that plays every single night, no exceptions. even when he sees JL3 jacking up 13 shots and making only 3, he stays with him and he keeps Span on the bench.. I am not saying Span is great, but he is certainly better than Lucas, atleast at that particular time.
     
  9. durvasa

    durvasa Member

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    I don't know. JVG gets bashed for taking his young players out of the game too quickly when they play poorly, and he gets bashed for leaving them in too long. What's he to do?

    Lucas's individual numbers this year are much better than V-span's, and they were better in the preseason as well (when you take turnovers into account). But let's also look at how the team performs with them. In his 200 minutes on the court, we're now +60 with Lucas. In Spanoulis's 180 minutes, we're -12. The big difference is turnovers. We only turn it over 12 times per 48 minutes with Lucas, but we turn it over 17 times per 48 minutes with Spanoulis.

    Personally, I don't think the coach is r****ded for sticking with Lucas for now. In time, if Lucas continues to struggle like he did against Phoenix, maybe Spanoulis will get his chance. He's got to be patient. He had his time earlier in the season, and now Lucas is getting his chance.
     
  10. SWTsig

    SWTsig Member

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    this is all i need to read.... you clearly have no idea what you're talking about.

    now run along, the big boys would like to have an intelligent basketball conversation.
     
  11. Hayesfan

    Hayesfan Member

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    right... the idea was to do the "perfect" set of rotations...only logically I know he probably won't be able to stay in that long. The ideal is having him in the first ten minutes of the game and the first ten minutes of the third with Yao. That's when he is the most successful.

    Though some people brought the JVG conversation here... which was not what I wanted.

    I agree, Rmac, that for each situation there is a right group of players to play. I am trying to figure the best set of people on the court at the same time. And about how many minutes that player deserves in the rotation.

    Taking it from 10-11 players down to 8-9 is very difficult for me, mainly because I am thinking in generalization. If I were to do it for each specific team we are playing it would probably be much easier.
     
  12. Desert Scar

    Desert Scar Member

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    Seems pretty clear the team has ran out of gas in the 3rd quarter the last 3 games, with particularly inept late 4th quarters (plus the OT). The substitution patterns are clearly not working in keeping the Rockets in position to finish, someone has to take responsibility.
     
  13. ferrarif1286

    ferrarif1286 Member

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    ideal situation is alston off the bench with 2 min in the 4th quarter with rockets up 30
     

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