Well, crispee tried to salvage an intelligent thread from one that turned into a flame war, only to see that second thread go off the rails as well . . . so let's try it again (or perhaps make it 3 for 3). I'll give you a quick and clear answer to the first question: Because he's sane. And in specific response to your implication that the loss of Hakeem and the injury to Mo Taylor shouldn't matter to Francis's view of the Rockets' future, I'll add that even if Francis becomes the best PG in the NBA, the Francis-Mobley-Griffin combination will never be good enough that they can win a championship with little regard as to who the remaining starters or supporting bench players are. (In other words, as dominant as people at various times have considered the Shaq-Kobe, Duncan-Robinson, and Jordan-Pippen-Rodman or Grant nuclei to be.) Since your entire line of argument seems to be a backhanded way of saying that Francis isn't as good as the rest of this BBS thinks he is, I'll repeat that I'm assuming here that Francis becomes the best PG in the NBA. That gives you one franchise-caliber player, but a championship-level nucleus generally requires at least one more franchise-caliber player or two All-Star-caliber players. Which means we need to take a closer look at Mobley and Griffin. To be honest, I doubt that Cuttino Mobley ever makes an All-Star team. Talent-wise, he seems roughly comparable to Jeff Hornacek (and even that's a stretch, since Hornacek was consistently a far more accurate shooter). Now, it happens that Hornacek was on a couple of very good teams, playing alongside perennial All-Star PGs -- Kevin Johnson in Phoenix, and Stockton in Utah -- but alas, never won a title. Which brings us to Eddie Griffin. Both of Hornacek's contending teams had All-NBA players at PF (Tom Chambers in Phoenix, and Malone in Utah), and even that wasn't enough to win a championship. Let's say, since we're assuming the best for Francis, that Griffin somehow manages to reach this rarefied level as well. How soon do you think that can happen? At best, you're talking about his fourth or fifth season . . . by which time Cuttino Mobley is already 31 or 32 years old. Not a large window of opportunity there, is it? That four-year maturation period brings up your second question, which relates to how good the Rockets are in the interim, and how happy you expect Francis to be as he watches Mobley's prime tick away and waits for Griffin to grow into his potential. With a solid supporting player in Hakeem and a healthy Mo Taylor, the Rockets have a good chance to make the playoffs this season, sustaining their pace of improvement and making themselves an even more appealing destination for FAs to keep the momentum going. Without either, you're looking at the lottery (again, no matter how good Francis is -- Gary Payton and Stephon Marbury were All-Star PGs last year, and both missed the playoffs), and a feeling that the team is spinning its wheels. So now we're ready to discuss your other "main point" . . . I guess having multiple "main points" is a privilege you earn after 7,000 posts . . . You've just made the exact point Francis and his agent are making. Next summer, when the Rockets have the chance to offer him an extension, he WON'T know those things. But, aha! -- if he waits two years, when he becomes a restricted free agent, he'll have a much better idea of how well Mo has come back from his injury (having just played a full season, hopefully) and how high Griffin's potential reaches, not to mention how steep his learning curve will be. In short, he'll have a vastly improved picture of the Rockets' probable long-term future, and he'd be a fool to commit himself a year earlier when that picture will not be nearly as clear (through no fault of his own). Glad you've finally come around to agreeing with him.
Jeff Hornacek aka Funny Face against Cuttino Mobley?? One-on-one?? I think I would take Mobley every time in that match-up. Hornacek was a great outside shooter who made his living especially in Utah on screens, usually illegal, and picks and rolls from Malone/Stockton, also usually illegal. Hornacek with some one-on-one moves? I guess..but I don't think he ever had anybody on other teams terrified with his "great" one-on-one moves. To compare Mobley to Hornacek is laughable, IMO, because they are nowhere similar in styles. Hornacek is better compared to Eddie Johnson. EJ was taller and a poorer defender, but he was the same player offensively. Just imagine how well he would have done if he had benefited from the Jazz "offense". As much as I hate to say it, with the unemotional one aka Shaq and Kobe there are not going to be many teams if any that can beat that combination. The only people who can stop those 2 are themselves. Look at the 76ers: other than Iverson who did they have offensively? If you say Mutuombo then you are desperately searching for an answer. So, if Iverson can do it why not Francis? It's like you said, Swopa, if the Franchise becomes the best PG in the NBA then he could do the same thing that Iverson did last year. Unfortunately, the Rockets play in the West and not the East. So, it's back to figuring a way out of beating the Fakers. Guess what?? Nobody in the West will figure out a way to do this. Our only hope is for Shaq and Kobe's camaraderie to implode--sorta like the Blazer team. For the record it kills me to see the Fakers win the NBA title. However, I'm realistic in that Shaq and Kobe, as much as I can't stand them, are really the 2 best players in the NBA. Francis's comments have gotten way blown out of proportion ! I, for one, am happy that he would want to be that competitive and that he's not satisified with "almost" making the playoffs. I think he's telling CD and Rudy T subliminally that they still have a lot of work to do.
Excellent post Swopa. I think what's been lost in all of this is the x-factor, Kelvin Cato. Try to not laugh, but when he's healthy and effective, close to no one holds their ground as well in the post against the premier centers in the league. I hate to use the word 'potential' with Cato, but if he even comes close to the shot-blocking, defensive force Rockets management envisioned him as, then your line of reasoning isn't as sound. Then it comes down to how the Rocket match up with the Lakers/Spurs/Kings 1-4. I don't feel like comparing them right now though, maybe later..... You've got me on the Griffin part; It's hard to dispute the '4 year maturation' period with him. Defensively, however, I really don't think it'll be that long. He's got unreal timing on his jumps, and this team doesn't need his offense to the point where it's a concern. If he develops into a defensive force, which is more likely than him ever becoming an offensive force, then the Rockets chances at a championship aren't as bad imo. The real question is, is a Francis and Griffin in their prime combo, with a supporting cast of Mobley and Taylor enough? How effective Taylor is coming back from his injury, how hard Cato tries to justify his contract, and how management tries to patch up the holes in this team RIGHT NOW make that question all but impossible to answer.
Now again, be honest, how many times have you seen The Cat play? We are talking a near 20 point scorer here. And remember, that was only his third season. There were only three guards drafted in his class or after with a higher scoring average:Vince Carter, Jason Terry, and our very own Steve Francis. Hornacek was by far the better shooter(One of the best in recent years), but not half the athlete, or even player, that Cuttino is. Now to Steve...KJ shoudln't be mentioned as a player comparable to Steve at this point. Steve is an all-star caliber player in his 2nd season(Age 24), Johnson reached this level, and stayed there for about 3 years, during his prime. Steve was one of four guards in the top 25 in double-doubles, and #4 in triple-doubles last season. He averaged 20, 7, and 6. You don't have to assume that, By the best Francis can do, you must mean Perennial All-Star, Future Hall of Famer, and that #3 will be in the rafters a couple years after he retires. That will be much better a player than Stockton or KJ could have dreamed of being. Now if Griffin can even reach something like a Theo Ratliff(Although he has much better offensive skills) level, we are set. But, I'll play your game, lets say we do have to wait for Griffin to reach that level. You say 5 years(I say 3-4), that does make Cuttino 32. Steve-29. Griffin-24. That gives us a 3-4 year window to go for the gold. I say that's enough. Look at the last three teams to win the title: Lakers-Shaq-29, Kobe-22 Spurs-Duncan-23, Robinson-34, Elliott-31 Bulls-Jordan-36, Pippen-33 That would leave our core as the 2nd youngest. Now, neither of us is worthy of predicting the future, but I think I can make the better guess, as I have the benefit of watching a good 70-80% of the games. Payton had nobody to help him out. Nobody. The second best player on the team was 15 point scorer Rashard Lewis. Marbury, again, didn't really have much help. Van Horn-Injured. Kittles-Injured. Martin-Injured. Gill-Injured. Francis will still have a healthy Cuttino, Griffin, Rice(Key point, that you didn't even bother to mention), Thomas, Moochie(Probable), Morris, etc... Now go away Warrior fan. Go help Hughes with his jump shot, or Sura with his hair
Good points Swopa, but remember; Dream won a championship without any superstar, star, all-star or anyone who at that time was nearly as good as Mobley is now. Azim da Dream
Here's what I think: Mobley turned 27 8 or 9 days ago. Francis is 23. Griffin is 19. Mo is turning 24 in a month. How can u possibly think this team won't contend very seriously in 3 years? Personally, I think we'll be more worried about Orlando (I'm almost positive Duncan goes there). In 3 years, if the team sticks together, this is what it will look like: Center: If cato shows anything even adequate this season, he's got this spot. If he doesn't, the Rockets will find a replacement. From where? we have 3 years. In those 3 years, we can find dozens. Doesn't have to be great, just defesively active. Power Forward: Mo would be 27ish. Mo would be one season from his prime. That's pretty damn good. Forget the fact that 2 years of experience will do wonders for his rebounding and D, he'll have matured. A slight increase in offense, and imroved D and rebounding, and we've got an above average, semi all-star. Maybe even an All Star? Who knows... Small Forward: Ok, so he's 19. We're forgetting that he's defense is much further along than any other rookies, and the timing on his jump is great. One year to fine tune to the NBA game, one year to receive big muntes, and finally the breakout year. He'll be 22, which Kobe was this year. No, he's nothing close to Kobe, but I'm saying it's not impossible to be great/good at 22. After playing 2 years behind Glen Rice, his SF game will have come along, doesn't matter if it's the slightest bit, but it's better than nothing. Shooting guard: Age 30. For some reason, a lot of people think this is the make it or break it year. If Cuttino hasn't won a title by then, he's gonna put his heart into stretching his career year (the previous year) into the next, coz he'll know how close the title is. Point Guard: Steve Francis will be a top 2 PG in the league AT LEAST. In 3 years, he'll be at his maximum capacity. He'll have had full time to learn all the PG ropes, be able to take upto 42 minutes a game easily, and would still have young legs. I'm telling you, Francis at age 27 is everyone's worst nightmare. I would put my money on him being the best PG in the NBA in 3 years, unless Jason Williams (comin out next year) is beyond beleif. Yes, we also have a true SF: either Terrence Morris or Dan Langhi will most probably be on the roster. So how can you say we won't contend in 3 years, when Webber and Shaq are 32 years old? Stockton and Malone don't exist? Gary Payton's on his last legs? Duncan's gone east, and Robinson's retired? Mutombo and Hakeem are long gone? Two teams we shoudl fear if they stick together: Orlando and the Mavericks. The whole Francis thing is just blown out of proportion like hell. Francis would never leave Houston, never leave Cuttino, never leave Rudy T. Francis will sign an extension next summer, count on it.
tacoma park legend: Actually, I agree with you. My post was enormously long already, so I didn't mention it, but IMO if Cato can do what he's at least physically capable of doing and Mo Taylor comes back close to 100%, the Rockets do have a nucleus that would justify championship talk. But that just reinforces my overall point that a Francis-Mobley-Griffin nucleus will still need quality starters at the other two positions to be taken seriously as a contender. Azim da Dream: You are also correct. But Hakeem was the single best player in the NBA that year. Do you think either Francis or Griffin will be the most unstoppable player in the NBA in the next 4-5 years? Didn't think so. Manny Ramirez (and vj23k): I assumed when I wrote my post that there'd be some quasi-Hornacek-bashing in response, but my comparison is no insult to Mobley. Having grown up in Los Angeles, I was a Lakers fan through the '80s through the mid-'90s, and I still remember Hornacek personally ending Pat Riley's coaching career in L.A. in the 1990 playoffs. I daresay that most Rockets fans would be extremely happy if over the next three seasons, Mobley averaged 18+ points on 52% shooting (and 42% on 3-pointers), with 5 assists and nearly 5 rebounds per game. Well, that's what Hornacek averaged in the three years before he was sent to Philly in the Barkley deal ... i.e. before he "benefited from the Utah offense." Talent-wise, it's an apt comparison, whether you like it or not. Oh ... my ... god. OK, the following is a terrorist threat: I'm going to give you roughly 12-15 hours to edit your post, or put a smiley after that sentence, or something. Because that is the most g******ed ignorant statement I have ever seen posted on a message board by someone who was capable of writing a complete sentence. And you should fix it now before everyone figures out what a ****ing moron you are. Um ... you say that like anything short of divine intervention would help with either of those things. (P.S. OK, I take back at least part of what I said before about being a moron. Anyone who comes up with a kiss-off line like that is OK in my book.)
I wonder if the same people who said that Mobley, Griffin and Francis together couldn't win a championship thought that Isiah, Dumars and Laimbeer couldn't win a championship. Francis is a franchise player, Griffin could develop into a franchise player. But this is a WORK IN PROGRESS! Who really thought that Kobe would be dominating the league in his early 20s? Stats wise Hornacek and Mobley are similar, but style wise they are COMPLETELY different. Larry Bird and Elton Brand at points in their careers averaged 20 ppg 10 ppg, but they are not the same type of player. But to just come in and say "You need a miracle to make the playoffs" isn't necessarily true. The Suns made the playoffs a few years ago with small ball. There is NO WAY anyone can seriously say what the Rockets can and can't do until all of the trades are done. People are saying "With Mo and Hakeem. . ." blah, blah, blah, but if the Rockets load up on big men in the next month or two everything becomes a moot point. Besides even if Mobley is 31 or 32, nowadays players are playing at a high level until the age of 34 or 35. There are fans of other teams that are in such a hurry to count the Rockets out that ANYTHING can happen in the next 2 or 3 years. People are saying the Rockets can't win a championship in the next 3 years, well 3 years ago the Rockets had Barkley, Drexler and Hakeem on the team and no cap space. You can't tell if a team can or will contend for a title until at least the summer if over with. Who knows? The Rockets could get some big men for the Rockets, they could upset a team in the first round, and the future could look bright!
I'm curious Swopa, what if I came up to you in 1998 and told you that 3 years from now Philadelphia, Milwaukee, Sacramento, Dallas, and Toronto would ALL be title contenders? You would have laughed in my face because only Philadelphia had made the playoffs that year and none of the other teams had much of a future. You can't just say "this team will not be a contender with this nucleus" when things change in so quickly in basketball. People would have laughed in my face if I told them that the Clippers were a potential playoff team, Milwaukee and Toronto could make a case for making the Finals, and nobody from the 1998 Houston Rockets roster were currently on the 2001 Rockets roster. Things change in sports.
Swopa, your post is reasonable, and I agree with much of it, including your assessment of the potential of the talent level of the Rockets players, but I disagree with your thesis on how Stevie should respond to this potential. If you're saying that a Francis-Mobley-Griffin nucleus could never be as dominant as the others you're describing, okay, I can give you that although I don't entirely agree (a key factor is how good Griffin can be, and it seems to me that the sky's the limit on his potential, although I'm not willing to wager on the likelihood that he reaches that potential). But we're talking championship-favorites, conceivable-dynasties domination. Yes, a Francis-Mobley-Griffin nucleus without solid players at the other positions and key bench players may not be unstoppable. But so what? If Griffin can become a strong rebounder, an excellent help defender, hold his own defending one-on-one, and become a versatile scorer capable of creating his own shot, and you add the Mo Taylor from last season, a more efficient Francis and Cuttino, and a couple other solid players to help up front and come off the bench, I'll bet the Rockets can contend for the championship. They may not be clear favorites, but they should at least contend. Okay, so maybe Rudy and CD may not have all the pieces right away (i.e. - those solid role players), but can Steve really ask for much more? Isn't that a little preposterous to say that if the Rockets don't have the perfect supporting cast just waiting to come together within the next two years then Steve is right to cross this team off as one that isn't going anywhere and move on? I know I may be pushing your position a little farther than it actually is, but my point is a Steve-Mobley-Griffin nucleus can be good enough to contend for the championship, and that yes, it would require more than scrubs filling the other nine roster spots, and that no, even if the team isn't set, it would NOT be justified of Steve to look for greener pastures while he follows the championship ring twinkling in the night sky over Bethlehem. I do feel people are going overboard on the Stevie quote, and that it's not that big a deal, but I don't blame them for seeing implications in it, and I think those implications are significant given how active a recruiter Steve's been for the Rockets, like TheCat keeps pointing out. No one asked Francis to make comments like wanting to stay with the franchise his entire career and to court every free agent to be sniffed at by the organization day-and-night (okay, so maybe Rudy did ), but because he has, I hold him to a higher standard of commitment to the team more than any random basketball player, because he's already voluntarily demonstrated it. I'm not saying he's already made wedding vows and required to be committed to the Rockets long-term regardless of what the team's prospects actually are, but I do expect his commitment to be serious up to the point where it's obvious the team's going nowhere. The team as it stands right now is still a team that I believe is going somewhere, and if Steve doesn't see that in a year or two, barring other freak setbacks, I will be disappointed in him.
A lot of good comments before my post that I missed, but I want to say RocksMillenium's mention of the Rockets as a WORK IN PROGRESS sums up my rather lengthy post. However, I feel people's remarks about things changing fast in the NBA and you never know how things are going to be a few years from now is irrelevant to Swopa's defense of Steve's ambivalence. Just because the team might be radically different from now is no reason Steve should feel assured he can win with the Rockets.
We'll be even happier when he's averaging 26 pts on %46 shooting. Dude, you've got some points, but you're going nowhere on this fantasy leauge 'equal stats means equal player' bull. Mobley has abilities that make him a player to design an offense around. He is a go-to guy. He is a scoring machine that forces defensive coordinators around the league to spend a good amount of preparation on him, and that's just in his third year. It isn't an apt comparison talent-wise. Hell, the book is already written on Hornacek- Mobley has a good ten years left in his lexicon. Mobley scores and scores on defenses specifically designed to stop him. Mobley is the type of player who gives a team an offensive identity, a systematic way to win. Hornacek was a great shooter who thrived on the type of dominance provided by first-tier players like Mobes.
Finally, a thread on Stevie short enough to glance at and respond to! I think everyone is making entirely too much of Francis' comments. It has not shaken my faith one iota that he will sign the extension when the time comes. Just like I always said that Duncan would stay in San Antonio, Webber in Sacramento, Carter in Toronto and Olajuwon in Houston (well, I can't be right all the time). This isn't anything to be worried about -- it's just talk. You'll see when the time comes to sign.
That's great Swopa, just great. No need to edit it... As I firmly believe it. Remember, you said the best player Francis could be. The best player Francis can be would mean an improvement in every major statistical category. Points-Lets say a jump from 20 to 24 Assists-6.5 to 10 Rebounds-Not much room to improve here, but lets say from 6.9 to 7.2 TO's-3.31 down to 1.75 FG%-45 to 49 3FG%-39 to 45 FT%-82 to 85 Steals-1.76 to 2.3 Blocks-.4 to .8 Now Johnson, was a good point guard. But one, whos career isn't quite as impressive after a pretty large decline at the age of 30(Same time he retired for the first time). He still has great stats though, pulling through with 19, 10, and 3.6 as a career average. Very quick to the hole, knack for finding other marquee players, and a decent locker room guy. Now the downside-Never a very consistent three point shooter, and not too much of a better defender than Stevie is now Johnson's best season-20,12,4, and 09%from 3! In 81 games! Steve's best to date(I think you forget he has been in the league for two seasons)-20, 6.5, 6.9, and 39% from 3. The numbers aren't as far off as you seem to think they are. Now to Stockton, career stats-13, 11, 2.7 Obviously Stockton has a huge advantage in assists, but a good 6-7of those 11 per game are Via Karl. Give Steve Webber or someone comparable to Malone, and trust me the Assist # will jump In fact, the only area where Stock has a clear advantage are assists and turnovers. Steve dominates rebounds, gives Stockton a .07 percentage edge in ft%, and even takes a slight edge in 3FG% In his second season! Now, Swopa, go run off and edit your post before everyone realizes that you are a cocky, ignorant, jerk/ass. Because that is one of the stupidest, most uncalled for remarks I have seen on any message board. Seriously though, I post something that is of course arguable(As it is, like most other posts on the board, an opinion), and you go off making rude, uncalled for remarks with absolutely nothing to back it up. That, my friend, is weak. And, if you have given up on Hughes and Sura, go help Mookie with shot control(Or has that been solved, I haven't seen him play much since leaving Atlanta), or go help Chris find a good lawyer for his drug charges.
I won't get into the rest of this argument, but to me the idea that Mobley is better or will be better than Hornacek just because he's a better one-on-one player is absurd. I mean, James "Hollywood" Robinson was a much better one-on-one player/athlete than Hornacek yet he didn't amount to 1/10 what Hornacek did. I would think that if Mobley has as good of career as Hornacek did he should consider that a great accomplishment - he was surely one of the best shooters and smartest players in modern NBA history...
Yes. We would. But he got 20, 5, and 2.5. Not to mention shooting 15.4 shots a game to Jeff's 14(During that 3 year period of time) Now, Back to you...
Seems to me that gloating over a 1 1/4-point advantage (19.5 to 18.25), on the basis of 1 1/2 more shots per game -- and contrasted with 2 1/2 fewer assists per game -- just shows what comparable talents they are.
Seasons 4-6, to be precise, which by sheer coincidence (I'm not that anal) matches up with "the next three seasons" I talked about regarding Mobley. Again, I'm not sure why this comparison stirs up such heat. Hornacek may look dopey, but he was damn good. And after checking I found out he did make the All-Star team one of those three years, so maybe there's hope for Cuttino as well.
