So far, whenever Battier is off the court, the Rockets have been terrible, scoring 100 pts per 100 possession, and giving up 106 per 100 possession. There can be a variety of reasons, but given the fact that tht Grizzlies were similarly bad over the last few seasons with Battier sitting, it's some evidence that Rockets would likely not have won some games had Battier not played. It's an opinion, but one based on what actually happened on the court so far this season. You can say it's all Yao and McGrady, but the truth is McGrady struggled with his shots and both Yao and McGrady struggled with TOs. Battier covered up a lot of this team's mess. Without Battier, this team may very well have gone through a very slow start like they did in 04/05 before they righted their ship with the return of Sura and the acquisition of Wesley and Barry. Yes, it's my opinion, but one with factual basis since we saw the Rockets struggle to start 04/05 once already with the wrong cast around McGrady and Yao. Truth is, McGrady and Yao do not guarantee playoffs in the West if you don't have the right guys around them-- like Chuck, Battier, and, yes, Rafer. As for Swift and Gay... nobody expect Rudy or Swift to carry them to wins, but the fact is that the team is bad, and they have been generally worse with Rudy and Swift on court than they do with them sitting and some non-descript hardworking vets (Dahntay Jones, Jake Tsakalidis) playing. They haven't made a bad team at least less bad with them on court and there's every reason to believe they won't make Rockets better like Shane Battier has. Ask yourself this next time Battier steps in for a charge, stops a fast break by stripping the ball off the ball handler, or makes the perfect entry pass into Yao: Would Rudy or Swift have done that? Chances are, the answer is no.
I think Battier's rebounding stats are hampered by his role with the Rox. Offensively, they need him to be on the wing trying to hit threes cuz Yao clogs the lane offensively. Most of the time he isnt going to be near the basket to get offensive rebounds cuz if the ball goes into the post to Yao, Battier has to stay outside so his man doesnt double. Defensively, Battier is always guarding the opponents top perimeter player. Therefore, if they are shooting outside jumpshots he wont be close to the defensive rim for rebounds. If they are slashing to the hoop, a lot of Battier's best defense is to stay in front and swipe at the ball or go flying by them out of bounds. Again, not most condusive to the typical box out and rebound. Third, we have ballhawking rebounders in Hayes and even Howard so far. They take a lot of rebounds not just from Battier, but even Yao. Like it was said before, we are dominating the glass so who cares who gets them.
I personally enjoy JVG's "man love" for Battier. For a coach that often refuses to give praise, he always has something good to say about him. JVG can see things that the stats don't show. I think Battier is the main reason for our improved D. It would be foolish to play him at the 4 when he is doing this well at 3. This team is a perfect fit for him. I hadn't really thought about the rebounding so thanks for the analysis. ps. the man love thing was a joke
I have to disagree with some things here: 1) A healthy Yao and T-Mac make the playoffs in probably the strongest conference in league history. It's not some masterful combination of role players that get them to the playoffs. BECAUSE we have excellent role players in Hayes and Battier, we are top 3 in the West, and top 5 in the league. Not to mention we've had a rough start - schedule-wise, and performance-wise. But I have no doubt in my mind that putting Juwan Howard, Keith Bogans and David Wesley around these 3 puts us in the playoffs at the end of the season. Those are all guys who wouldn't fetch a dime more than 1 or 2M on the FA market. Sure, you may disagree with me, but you said "the truth is" and that's not the truth, it's your opinion. I'm actually pondering starting a thread with a poll to see how many people agree with that statement of yours. Problem is, there will be a huge difference posting it after a win or after a loss, so timing is everything on this board, lol. 2) As for Swift and Gay, we may have become more mistake prone, but we would have been much more athletic, resulting in more transition baskets. In all fairness, a team of Swift/Gay/T-Mac/Alston can run like crazy. Creating a game plan that would suit both Yao/T-Mac and T-Mac/running-crew would be difficult, but effective nonetheless. Gay is decent from midrange, and so is Swift. Overall, I'm not pissed off about the trade. Battier seems to have this effect on the team that had been described to me before, but you don't really understand till you see a whole bunch of his games. Everyone said that Bonzi would balance out the trade, and it's not our fault that it hasn't worked out that way. Maybe down the line? I think Yao and T-Mac deserve more credit than we give them. I also think that's why a lot of people are content watching us do a good job, while I personally think a fully healthy Rockets team (with 15+ minutes for a healthy Sura and Bonzi) is the best team in the league.
That is so assinine. Predicting anybody other than, say, Lebron, will be a future star is akin to saying you know whether the dealer is going to pull out an ace, next. Why make people disregard the rest of your post, even if it's legit, with absurd comments?
Excellent point. This is what we expected him to give us, a versatile glue guy. He is a great addition along with Chuck Hayes' hustle play. Now, I can't wait to get Snyder back!
All while shooting 37.5% from the field and 29.6% from downtown. Damn! How did we pass him up?!? Not to mention his stellar 63.3% average from the line. I'm with you GATER, I'd much rather have him. He'd be helping us with his .7:1.47 assist-to-TO ratio as well.
Let's play a little number game: Here are Hayes' minutes in the games he played so far this season. The first column is self explanatory. So is the second. Third column is number of fouls. Utah---------8:16-------1 Dallas-------17:12-------6 NO----------22:21-------5 Memphis-----25:31-------3 Milwauki-----29:49-------6 NY----------20:39-------2 Miami-------19:01-------1 Washington-17:29-------1 Memphis----25:29-------6 Minnisota---29:04-------3 Phoenix-----17:52-------6 Cleveland ---26:44-------3 GS----------31:15-------2 Minnisota---21:38--------4 Charlotte---15:32--------4 Looks like it roughly rounds to about 21.7 MPG to me Here are the same stats for the last 7 games of last season. The first three columns are for Hayes. The next 3 for Swift. And the last three for Bogans. Hayes---------------------------Swift--------------------Bogans GS----------9:31---------1-------12:11---------1---------22:22---------2 Sacramento-0:43---------0 -------13:20---------3---------43:17---------4 Utah-------20:56---------2 -------13:21---------4---------37:22---------4 Minniesota--24:17:00-----3 -------22:47---------2---------38:21---------5 Memphis----19:13--------3--------19:57---------0---------30:30---------4 Denver------24:38--------3 -------15:04---------2---------39:45---------4 SA----------30:24--------4 -------23:18---------1---------21:22---------0 It looks like Hayes averaged about 18.5 MPG, Swift about 17.1 MPG and Bogans about 33.3 MPG. So the first thing that pops up right away is, holy crap, trading away Swift gave Hayes a whooping 3 more minutes a game, and that is including the 0:43 minute statistical outlier against Sacramento. Take that out and it comes to 21.5 MPG. Tada. Impressed? Second thing that comes up right away is that Hayes was already playing more minutes than Swift, and the trend already was that his minutes are increasing significantly. And this is towards the end of the year, despite Yao being back. Earlier in the year when both Yao and TMac were out, he played an even bigger role. Of course, the lion's share of minutes went to Bogans. This year, with Bogans gone and the unfortunate but true ever declining role of Deke, you'd expect more minutes for Hayes either way. Furthermore, we actually traded away Swift and his fewer minutes for Battier, who plays much MUCH more and who was, at least at the beginning of the season, expected to hold down the fort for us at the 4. I'd buy that we cut Bogans and Flyin' Ryan so Hayes can get more minutes. I'd that we traded away Swift because we don't want to overpay for a bench player who's not playing. But I don't buy that we traded away Swift to get minutes for Hayes So now that Hayes has more or less panned out, the Rockets either as an organization, or individuals on that organization can say whatever they want to look smart. And I'm Kris Kringle. It's amazing the short term memory some people have. When TMac was out, Bogans spotted him at the 3. Yes it was true. What about when Yao was out, or that both were out? We had 96 minutes at the 4 and 5 positions. Surely you weren't counting on Deke and his 14.4 MPG last season. Deke started and Juwan Howard played heavy minutes (35.5 MPG). We still has minutes. What do we do? We put TMac there when he's healthy. When he's not, we had a front court of some combinations of Hayes, Bogans and Swift. We went small. We did not have a defined and clear indication of who was 3, 4 or 5 because put simply, we were just playing 3 forwards. So if you want to say Bogans played more like the role of a 3 (which even that he was undersized for), I agree. But that is just splitting hairs.
I think Battier should be pure SF, not playing anything but that, but the current roster doesn't allow for it. If there was another potent big man it would be good, but maybe Hayes wouldn't be as good as he is now. The problem is not a players individual stats, it's if he can help the team to maintain those stats, or at least not allow the other team to get opportunities they shouldn't be getting. Talking about Memphis, someone like Gasol would be what the Rox need(playing strictly as a PF, he'd make a power twin with Yao as I think of it.) Would free Batman. IMO anyway, things don't translate as we think of them always.
That was lovely, but a false comparision. Keith Bogans shouldn't even be in the equation. He NEVER played the 4 spot EVER on the court. He was playing the 2 and 3. Have you ever seen Chuck play the 3? Heck no. He plays only 4 or 5. The minutes that Keith Bogans was getting were T-mac's minutes. Originally, Chuck was going into the game when Yao got into foul trouble... once he proved he was a benefit on the court, he and Swift were sharing the 4 position. Therefore, Swift leaving took a player away from the split of minutes going to the 4 position. Giving them the option to give Chuck more minutes in that spot. Compare apples to apples, not apples to oranges, and you might make your point more effectively.
You know, it's funny the things people claim. Apples to oranges? I think people are forgetting that Chuck Hayes is a freakin' inch and half taller than Keith Bogans, and he played the 5 in spot minutes last year and this year. He's the same height as Kirk Snyder, who plays the 3. I don't exactly want to see Hayes on a 7 footer just as much I don't want to see Bogans on somebody over 6'6. OK let's talk stats. So trading Swift was to get Chuck Hayes more minutes right? Then I would expect the stats to show an increase in minutes for Hayes. Stats prove you wrong. Chuck Hayes is getting the marginally more minutes than he did last year. And if you toss out the outlier, he's getting the same number of minutes. The claim that we traded away Swift to play Hayes is hogwash and wouldn't pass a sniff test, or in this case, an LoS test, which would show the increase in his minutes to be insignificant. I could claim anything under the sun, but in the end, if my actions don't prove it (or in this case, the Rockets' actions), it means jack. And of course, we were gonna give big minutes to Hayes right? Is that why we felt the need to draft Steve Novak? Good thing he didn't pan out, or I don't know how we're gonna slice the pie that way. I could definitely see how Novak's 7.6 MPG per game isn't gonna slice up Hayes' minutes the way Swift's 17 minutes (despite TMac being out) would at the end of last season.
Reasonable points, but I still gotta disagree with your analysis. First, even though the Rockets were 21-10 last season with Yao/McGrady active, a part of that is luck (getting some weaker teams during that stretch).. They were something like 1-17 in the Southwest Division overall. Not a pretty picture. Besides, McGrady on top of his game and a developing Yao in 04-05 got off to a 6-11 start. A slumping McGrady and an improved Yao could well have done the same with the wrong cast. These two guys NEED help and Swift and Gay are not it. If it happened once, I don't know why it can't happen again. 2)I don't think Swift and Gay would allow the Rockets to run any more than they do now. You can't run if all you do is dig balls out of the net. Swift is a bad rebounder, you can't run if you can't rebound. Chuck is a better player for starting runs than Swift. Rudy is atheletic but, as we see, inconsitent with his shots and overall game. Is he, at this moment, much better than Snyder? I haven't seen evidence of that.
No, Stats prove YOU wrong. Chuck averaged 13.4 mpg overall last season, 22 mpg this season. The change is not marginal. Moreover, Chucks's minutes were around 17-18 when Yao was out, and generally in the single digits when Yao was healthy. So, if Yao was healthy still and Juwan, Hayes, Swift all are available, there would be more of a minute crunch for him.
Are you kidding me? Hayes MPG was low because he was first signed, he played ALMOST NOTHING. In fact, we only dumb lucked into him when Yao and TMac went out, which saw him do well in limited minutes. If not for those particular incidents, he would have been another Torraye Braggs, Andre Barrett, Alton Ford, Adrian Griffin, and of course, mummies like Spoon, Mark Jackson, Charles Oakley, etc, the whole slew of insignificant trades/10 day minimums that went through here in the last couple of years. Then Yao and TMac went down. In Yao's case, it was the first time ever he went out. Nothing like this ever happened before. All of a sudden we had a gaping whole in the middle that needed to be patched up. So Hayes played and he played well enough to be kept. And you saw a significant increase in minutes. Saying that Hayes' minutes increased from 13.3 to 21.7 this year is like saying Yao saw a significant increase in minutes in the 02/03 season from 10 MPG to 32.8 MPG because he only played something like 10 minutes a game in his first 6 NBA games. In this case, Hayes' minutes was 13.3 DESPITE playing 1, 2 and 3 minutes early on. And oh boy, how are we gonna split up the minutes between Howard, Hayes and Swift. How the hell are we gonna split the minutes between Howard, Hayes, Battier, Padgett and Novak? We're doing just that. And funny thing. Padgett and Novak collectively play just a hair under how much Swift did last year, and more than he did towards the end of the year. Toss in Battier, who plays much more... But I suppose you could always tell me pigs can fly.
http://basketballreference.com/teams/teamscores.htm?tm=HOU&yr=2005&lg=N Take a look at the game log yourself and tell me when he played how many minutes and when Swift played. MFW, your story was wrong. Rockets had to give up some salary to get Battier back in the trade for the 8th pick. I heard they would have offered either Swift or Howard, and Memphis picked Swift. Either way, they wanted Hayes to play and they want to clear up the logjam at the 4 a bit. As for the current situation, it's real simple... Padgett and Novak don't play at all mostly. Howard enough to give Hayes rest and relief him from foul trouble. Battier mostly stays at the wing. Chuck is the starter and the most effective option for however many minutes he can play without getting too tired with his style and foul trouble. It's pretty clear that so far, the Rockets are better offensively and defensively with Hayes on the court. If watching the games dont' tell you that, here are some numbers accumulated over season so far: http://www.82games.com/0607/06HOU10D.HTM
Gater will never get over the Battier deal. Battier is one of the main reasons we are only allowing 86.5 points per game. We have so much size because of him and TMac playing the 2. We are very fortunate to have Shane on our team.
MFW, if you are looking for the missing minutes... try Lonnie Baxter. I do believe while both Yao and Swift were out, he was taking some of the inside minutes with Chuck as well. I know for certain he was in January. I don't even understand why we are arguing, if Lindsey said that was what the Rockets thought was something beneficial in Swift being traded, how is it an issue? Are we saying he's lying? Does it really matter? Bottom line, even if Chuck is getting "marginally" more minutes this year the option is there to give him more in the power forward position, which is what they wanted. Either way, the trade was obviously the right one. To get the thread back on track, Battier's stats will more than likely level out to his averages as the season goes along. Though the rebounding seems to be taken care of by other players, so his focus is going to be other aspects of the game.
And I'm telling you once again. Hayes was playing close close to 19 minutes at the end of last season. He's playing close to 22 minutes this season, DESPITE improved efficiency. Your theory works fine if you put blinders on and ignore the obvious. If we traded either Juwan OR Swift to give Hayes more minutes, I expect to see Hayes with more minutes. As for Novak and Padgett, they play next to nothing you say? Collectively, they played as much as Swift last year. Collectively, they play as much as Juwan Howard does this year. Substitute Novak and Padgett for either Howard OR Swift, you get NO CHANGE in minutes. Like I said, I buy a salary dump move, but don't give me any crap about we traded them to give Hayes minutes. Last but not the least, I don't know why the hell you just gave me Hayes' efficiency. If the guy is efficient and we play better with him, yet we don't give him much more minutes than he got at the end of last season, when he wasn't as efficient, what does that tell you? Kind of puts a kink in your theory doesn't it?
Like I told you, I'm done arguing about the costs/benefits of the trade. If you want to see the positives of the trade, I couldn't care less. What I am disputing, is that we traded Swift to get Hayes minutes. As for Lonnie Baxter, you do realize that he's the guy we traded for Keith Bogans right? Also, we first signed Chuck Hayes to a 10 day contract on Jan 18. We traded Baxter away on Feb 9. There were 12 games during that time frame, of which Hayes averaged much more minutes than Baxter. When Baxter was getting DNP, Hayes was playing. Oh, did I also mention that Swift only played in 5 of those games because he was injured and only averaged about 15 minutes in those games that he did play? So, sorry, you're gonna have to do better than that.
You are the one with blinders on. Hayes started averaging 17-19 mpg in April AFTER Yao went down in the game vs. Utah. Prior to that, while Yao was available, he was in the SINGLE digits in minutes. He also had some significant minutes in January WHILE YAO WAS STILL DOWN. Yao being out was what gave Hayes his minutes at the end of last season. Collectively Padgett and Novak averaged as much as Swift did? Swift pretty much played every game while he was healthy. Novak and Padgett 12 and 8 games, respectively this season. There are many games where only one of these guys played. Their minutes are also a bit inflated while Hayes was out. Chronicle's Juwan Howard article had him saying that on September 24th, JVG told Juwan he wasn't planning on using Juwan much this year. The evidence show that the idea was to run a shooting PF like Battier along with Chuck Hayes eating up the rest of the minutes. Juwan wasn't supposed to play much PF at all. Only the need for Battier at the wing and the inability of Padgett and Novak to produce consistently gave Juwan his minutes. Besides, Hayes' +/- was off the charts last season, and Morey is a guy who definitely takes notice of such things (in more detailed versions-- he talked about them in his lecture at Rice University). There is no way he doesn't want to see more of Hayes over eitehr Howard or Swift.
