Dems winning over Middle America...

rimrocker · Nov 15, 2006

A couple of more closeups... I should note I got all these maps from My DD...

rimrocker · Nov 15, 2006

Another tidbit from My DD...

[T]he true dagger came from Latinos who, to the tune of a shocking thirty points, shifted to Democrats more than any other demographic group in the country. This almost certainly because of the hateful, harsh, anti-immigration rhetoric from the conservative base, and refused to even listen to its leaders like Bush and McCain who wanted to adopt a more open approach. This shift accounted for between 25% and 30% of the entire shift to Democrats nationwide, and did not net Republicans any "backlash" gains whatsoever. Considering Latino population growth, that is the sort of dagger that will stick in and cause wounds to fester for a long, long time.
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rimrocker · Nov 15, 2006

More analysis from MyDD, this time on the state and local level...

Our gains outside of Washington, D.C. were at least equal to, if not greater than, our gains within Washington, D.C. Using the information found on DLCC.org, here is what we accomplished.

Big Picture

Democrats won six Governorships, and lost none, moving from a deficit of 28-22 to an advantage of 28-22. The gains came in Arkansas, Colorado, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, and Ohio.

In state legislative bodies, Democrats control 56 chambers, Republicans control 40. Two, the Montana House (previously tied) and the Pennsylvania House (previously Republican controlled) are undecided. Democrats took nine legislative chambers, and lost none. The gains came in Indiana (House), Iowa (House and Senate), Michigan (House), Minnesota (House), New Hampshire (House and Senate), Oregon (House), and Wisconsin (Senate). The Iowa Senate was previously tied, and the Oklahoma Senate, previously controlled by Democrats, is also now tied. I believe, however, that the tie in the Oklahoma Senate goes to Democrats, because we have the Governorship there.

Democrats control 3,964 state legislature seats, and Republicans control 3,307. I do not know how many are controlled by third parties, or are currently undecided. Democrats also have a non-southern majority in state legislature seats for the first time in many years.

Trifectas

Democrats have new trifectas in Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Oregon, bringing our total number of trifectas to sixteen. Our previous trifectas included Illinois, Louisiana, Maine, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, Washington, and West Virginia. Republicans current have nine ten trifectas in Alaska, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Missouri, North Dakota, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas and Utah. This is a dramatic turnaround in trifectas since the 2000 redistricting fiasco that led to our current electoral maps.

Where we gained

Overall, Democrats gained at least one seat in one or both chambers in forty-one states, while Republicans gained one or more seat in one or both chambers in only eight states. Here is the complete breakdown (PDF):

* Democrats gain seats in both chambers: Alaska, Colorado, Illinois, Iowa, Kentucky, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, South Dakota, Vermont, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin

* Democrats gain seats in House, Senate unchanged: Arizona, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Hawaii, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Louisiana, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Virginia, Wyoming

* House unchanged, Democrats gain in Senate: Tennessee

* Democrats gain in House, Republicans gain in Senate: Maine, Montana, Oklahoma, Texas

* Republicans gain seats in House, Senate unchanged: Georgia, Mississippi

* Republicans gain seats in both chambers: Alabama, California

* No elections / Non-partisan / No change: Nebraska, New Jersey, New Mexico, Rhode Island, Utah

It is interesting that Democrats did so much better in House races than in Senate races. In fact, seven of the ten Democratic chamber takeaways came in the House rather than the senate, and the Pennsylvania house could still be added to that total. Since House districts are generally smaller and not very well known, it certainly suggests that there was a broad, sweeping, pro-Democratic undercurrent this year. Despite our huge gains, we might have actually slightly under-performed at a number of levels, given the way the wind was blowing.

What is all means

We have now almost entirely restocked our bench following the 1994 elections. Our list of potential candidates for higher office at every level is now much longer than it was only six years ago. We also are in a position to favorably remake electoral maps in than we were six years ago. Also, by taking a substantial lead in trifectas, now we can govern for the first time in a long time, shifting the national policy debate decidedly in our favor. The trend for us at the state level has been pretty much straight upward from 2004-2006. As the backbone of our national coalition, this makes our majorities and influence in Washington, D.C. all the greater.
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Dems winning over Middle America...

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