A black Republican runs against the tide in Maryland Senate race A black Republican gets unexpected support and a boost in the polls against his Democratic opponent, who is white. By Maura Reynolds, Times Staff Writer November 1, 2006 Washington — Though political momentum appears to be with Democrats around the country, the trend is going the other way in one solidly blue state, where a Republican candidate is gaining on the favored Democrat in a contest with an unexpected racial twist. The state is Maryland and the candidate is Lt. Gov. Michael Steele, a black Republican running for the Senate against a white Democratic congressman, Benjamin L. Cardin. Once trailing by more than 10 points, Steele narrowed the margin to where the race is now considered by some to be nearly a tossup. His recent gains reflect growing dissatisfaction among some blacks toward the state Democratic Party. On Monday, a group of prominent African American Democrats from Prince George's County in the Washington suburbs crossed party lines to endorse the Republican. "The [Democratic] Party acts as though when they want our opinion they'll give it to us," said Wayne Curry, the former county executive who led the mutiny. "It will not be like that anymore." Curry and others complained that although nearly 30% of the state's population and 35% of Democratic voters were African American, too many of the statewide Democratic candidates in this year's election were white. Endorsing Steele "is a way to say, 'Don't leave Prince George's out, and don't leave African Americans out,' " said county council member David Harrington at a press conference. Racial tensions in Maryland's Democratic Party have been brewing since earlier this year, when Cardin beat back a primary challenge from former congressman and NAACP leader Kweisi Mfume by a margin of 44% to 41%. Democratic leaders say that Cardin won because he raised more money than Mfume. But Ronald Walters, a professor at the University of Maryland who studies African American politics, said the party leadership rallied early around Cardin, which hampered Mfume's ability to raise cash. "I was startled by the swiftness of it," Walters said. "It was as if they wanted to foreclose the possibility of anybody else jumping in." Since winning the primary, Cardin has generally polled well above Steele, which would be expected in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans 2 to 1. But Cardin's lead began to slip recently, and some polls show it in the single digits. One reason, observers say, is that Steele has run a series of clever TV ads, including one known as "the puppy ad." In an effort to inoculate himself against negative Democratic ads, Steele warns voters that they are likely to hear Democrats accuse him of terrible things like hating puppies. "For the record," Steele says, "I love puppies." Jennifer Duffy, who analyzes Senate races for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, says that Steele's strong performance has been a surprise. "Mfume didn't have all that much money, and he still got 41%. Which tells me people didn't exactly flock to Cardin," Duffy said. "Steele is a lot better than expected. It's not that Cardin is a bad candidate; he's just a little dull." On Friday, Duffy officially moved the race — which is for the seat of retiring Democrat Paul S. Sarbanes — from the "leans Democratic" category to "tossup." "At the end of the day, do I think it's really hard for Steele? Yes," Duffy said. "It's a very Democratic state and a very bad environment for Republicans. But he has made this a race." Maryland's Democratic Party insists that Cardin is well ahead of Steele, and that even a black Republican in a state with a sizable African American community will have trouble getting elected this year. "I think the voters understand that a vote for Michael Steele is a vote for George Bush," said state Democratic Party spokesman David Paulson. "Right now, Democrats don't like the guys who are holding George Bush's hand." Democrats also complain that to attract Democrats and independents, Steele has been softening his positions to make himself sound more liberal. In particular, they cite what they describe as changing statements about his views on abortion and stem cell research. "You need to round up a search party to find out where he stands on the issues," said Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.). And they also point out that because Steele is from Prince George's County, where he got his start in politics, the support he's won there from some black Democrats may not carry over to the rest of the state. Still, the race has been closer than expected. Duffy said that Steele's success continued to be an aberration for black Republicans. The other two black GOP candidates who have caught national attention, gubernatorial candidates J. Kenneth Blackwell in Ohio and Lynn Swann in Pennsylvania, are not expected to win. "Of the three of them," Duffy said, "Steele is the last man standing."
Reverse Wilder Effect? Methinks not a few Repub are saying that they will vote for the black guy while in fect they won't. Thus the Wilder Effect may balance out the Reverse Wilder Effect. A Reverse Wilder Effect in MD Senate? John McIntyre 2 hours, 8 minutes ago The same Baltimore Sun survey that showed Maryland Governor Bob Ehrlich closing to within one point of Martin O'Malley shows Michael Steele pulling to with six points of Ben Cardin. There is good and bad news for each side in this poll. The good news for Steele is he has essentially halved Cardin's lead from eleven to six. The bad news is that in The Sun poll he is only drawing 12% support among African-American voters. This opens up an interesting thought: is it possible we are seeing the reverse of the "Wilder effect" in Maryland? The Wilder effect is a reference to former African-American Virginia Governor Doug Wilder who was leading by 10+ points in the polls in the final days of the campaign but won by just a nose on election day. The suspected reason for the dramatic drop off in support is that some white voters told pollsters they'd vote for Wilder, but then pulled the curtain and voted for the white guy. The derision of black Republicans among many in the black political class is some of the harshest and meanest in politics. If you don't believe me, just go and look at what many liberal African-American leaders have said about Colin Powell, Clarence Thomas and Condoleezza Rice. Is it possible that many African-American voters are giving pollsters the politically correct answer that they are voting for the Democrat, because they know that is what they are "supposed" to say, but might do something different in the voting booth ? It is moderately good news for Cardin that the same survey that shows O'Malley up only one point in the Governor race has him with a six-point lead on Steele. But the Cardin campaign can't be thrilled with only a six-point lead with Steele only pulling 12% of the black vote. With Steele sporting a 7-point lead among whites, what happens to Cardin's lead if Steele's 12% of the black vote goes to 20% or 25%? That's why this week's endorsement of Steele by powerful Prince George's county black Democrats is potentially huge in this race. This poll was taken Saturday-Monday and thus was taken too early gauge what impact their endorsements may have on the race. There is more public polling set to come out today. (Update: Rasmussen has new Maryland numbers that are very similar to The Sun's -- Cardin up 5 and O'Malley up a point.)
I hadn't read about Steele since this race was seen as locked up for the Democrats for sometime. He looks like a really intriguing politician. Very conservative socially, moderate on economic issues, and strongly for accountability and restraint. Great pick up for the Republicans.
Yeah, I realized that after I posted. He was leading when I went to bed last night. He's still an intriguing politician.
I am glad that I was 50% wrong so far. I would be even happier that I was 100% wrong. A minority goverment/cabinet is always the best thing for a coutry. It's not just about GWB, but rather some healthy check and balance. Dems have a lot to do and undo, including their own support to enable this war.
